[Nogrod]

The waffling Rikae-analysis (looking at her as a wolf / ranger)


D1
#4 Second post of the game, following the pure nonsense style of Glirdan’s first post.

#7 Starts up the famous row with Roa’s first post discussing the gifteds and their revealments.

I'm not sure I like the way Roa advocates mistrust toward revealed gifteds with one breath, and points out that claiming giftedness would be a risky strategy for wolves with the next.

The quoted part at least sounds a bit too odd as an opening move between the hunter and the ranger. I know they should create an air of not be seen as “friends” but still this is an open accusation that could be picked up by others – as it indeed was. Were Rikae a wolf she would know that Roa is not one and thence this kind of spreading “substantial” suspicion on a mighty player would be the thing she should go for.

#33 Decides to reserve her judgement on Glirdy so far with a lot “waffling”. Suspects tgwbs for his suspicions on Roa ("trying to sound helpful without being helpful") and because he suspected Lommy for early voting. Wonders why tgwbs doesn’t wish a hunter to reveal as it would be better for the wolves s/he didn’t.

Now this is a hard one. She manages to defend two known wolves in a same post but what she says about Roa and tgwbs looks like she is in a way defending Roa and she makes a decent point about hunter’s not revealing being better for the wolves (so tgwbs who called for the hunter not to reveal was aiding the wolves’ cause) – although that decency depends on the interpretation of the way the hunter works as there is lots of variation there between the games.

#93 Comes in four minutes before the deadline (saying she had a wrong time in mind) and votes for Glirdan for reasons “mentioned earlier”.

No problem with getting the time wrong... Voting Glirdan and bringing him back to the game (making Glirdy even with Lommy) looks good for Rikae. Although a wolf Rikae would know the value of that kind of track-record too. She could have voted for her seeming top-suspect from earlier tgwbs with some real chances of getting him lynched too.

D2
#117

Since we have no kill today, I'm assuming the wolves' intended victim was protected? Kudos to our ranger - nice work!

Still suspects tgwbs as he voted for Lommy(wolf) with wolf-Glirdy. Finds Brinn even more suspicious because she thought tgwbs “as innocent as” Lommy and had promised not to vote for Glirdy. Thinks The Sixth and myself to be innocent because of our voting.

Now the quoted part really raises some questionmarks. So giving kudos to herself from the job she had not performed? Now this could be excellent rangership – making her look as totally messed up with the role she herself has. Great tactics, I’d say. Then again her suspicions on Brinniel look a bit weird as she accuses tgwbs for voting Lommy and then criticises Brinn for thinking Lommy innocent... Also clearing The Sixth and me just because of our votes looks suspiciously like a “friend-gaining” mission. Overall her relation to Lommy is a bit disconcerting: she defends her all the way but still (like here) likes to stress that we don’t know whether she is innocent.

#125 Tells that she had realised why there wasn’t a kill. Makes a point why a wolf-Nogrod would not have killed his fellow that early in the game (well he might have done, but the point is reasonable).

So not acting the puzzled-one anymore or actually getting to grips with things only now? The problem is that if the latter, then the idea of her “playing” the ignorant (while being the clever ranger) is not more looking less a possibility. Were she a wolf she might have wished to make me feel good not to start suspecting her – but no innocent would wish to jump on someone they honestly thought innocent either...

#190 Informs us (after I requested people to do it) being inclined to vote for tgwbs or Brinniel.

#207 Defends The Sixth against Legate and wants him to be watched more closely in the future. Votes tgwbs. The reason for the vote:

who I've suspected from the beginning, as I've said; there seems to be no better lead (though Roa makes a good point about Gil).

She brings Roa forwards. Now would a ranger bring the hunter forwards this way? Might do, as a way of not being able to resist the urge to kind of confirm the pack they have? I don’t know. I would like to throw a line or two to the other one I would be in cahoots with. Surely.

#216 Answers on overtime Legate’s post attacking Lommy. Says she hasn’t seen a plausible case against Lommy yet.

Edgy with it?

D3
#256 Makes an analysis on Glirdy’s interactions on Day1. Makes two points abvout Roa:

While I wouldn't put sacrificing a fellow wolf beyond Roa (she's said she would do it in this game alone), I somehow doubt wolf-Gil [Glirdan?] would leap on the first hint of a suspicion like that if it was for a fellow wolf. He could just as easily have ignored it.

and

Roa, in spite of her initial suspicion of Glirdan, votes for TGWBS. Slightly suspicious, though she gives several reasons.

Thinks Legate looks the most suspicious, then me.

Looks like she’s learning something from Roa eg. she has started to play the same subdued tactics? But she’s even more subdued with Lommy.

#295 Votes Gil-Galad.

Okay. This has been discussed somewhat already. So she didn’t trust Mac’s revealment. I can’t blame her as I doubted it to begin with also. And if she’s the ranger she had additional reasons to doubt Mac as he (quite wisely) didn’t say Roa is the hunter. So he might have just said she’s innocent (a wolf-Mac would know that) and ranger-Rikae would know there is something missing...


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Roa on Rikae

#9 Explains her point. Says:

Gifteds, if they are in this game, will just have to be more clever than that.

Pretty neutral. But the quoted thing kind of looks interesting. It’s a question we know no answer that whether the hunter and the ranger were able to PM each other or not. That has not been told to us. Knowledge of that might help us interpreting this one.

#118 Lists what people thought about Glirdan the Day before. Puts Rikae in the “unsure / thinks innocent” –section.

#119

Strictly by placement of the votes, Sixth looks most innocent (especially given Glirdan's reaction), followed by Rikae, then Lommy.

#124 Admits Brinn’s correction to her vote-count that it was Rikae who raised Glirdan even to the lead.

Probably just a mistake? Can’t see any significance here but it somewhat spoiled her point on me...

#126 Reminds Rikae that she should not be so sure about my innocence as backstabbing has happened before.

So the “mother-hunter” yet again correcting her apprentice the ranger? But in this case they would not have a right to PM each other.

#148 Attacking tgwbs she says:

Also, all this "Rikae must definately be innocent" worries me. Yes, she just happens to have the perfect vote placement, but she herself said that she hadn't read through the thread. Maybe she didn't know that a vote for Glirdan would tie him with Lommy. Or perhaps she made a mistake and miscounted the votes, like I did, and thought to do the safest thing (for herself) and vote to lynch Glirdan. (The point I used for Nogrod applies here as well.) I'm not saying she's definately guilty, but we really should know better than discount someone for a mere Day 1 vote. I've only seen her as a wolf once, but I know she's very good at avoiding suspcion.

It might be the careful distancing between the two. It really could be. At least it seems Roa herself never got back to this even as she noted that Rikae is good in avoiding suspicions... But why would she say that to remind all of us of the fact?

#154

Also, if someone with more time could analyze Rikae- people getting ignored for for a vote is just waaay to convenient.

Saying this in earnest? Wishing people to do that indeed? Or making appearances towards the wolves that the two have nothing shared?

#243

And don't think I've forgotten Rikae. I still don't like how people are quick to discount her becuase of vote placement. If she's a wolf, we'll have played right into her hands.

#245 Makes an analysis on Rikae. It’s on the upper part of page7. I’ll only include the conclusion, but feel free to check it.

On the whole, she looks more innocent than guilty. However, there are a few things that irk me, and her reponse to my first post, which was used by a known wolf to attack me, makes me wonder. I can see her laughing evilly as a wolf because very few people suspect her, but I could also see her as a really good innocent. It's a tough call. I never like to exonerate anyone completely (that's how wolves slip by) but I don't think that justifies lynching her toDay. Tomorrow may be a another story.

This really looks like a friend keeping a distance. She made some points in the analysis but still ends up clearing her – with some “waffling”... (sorry Roa, I will be pointing to your waffling for some time to come after this game...)

A few short remarks to follow...