[Lalaith]

First off – It is highly unlikely we’re seeing any wolf-on-wolf voting today. Why should they? Get a villager lynched and they win. So if Hookbill is a wolf, both Durelin and Mith are innocent. If Mith is a wolf, both Legate and I are innocent.

But....if I am right about Lommy’s list, then Kitanna is innocent.
Mith, Hookbill and I however are all looking suspect because Lommy seems to definitely say she’s not going after any of us.
Her feelings about Durelin and Legate are ambiguous. She says she doesn’t know. Would the wolves take the risk of gambling on this. Argh. It doesn’t make sense, because Hookbill and Mith cannot both be wolves, if I’m right about my first point. And I know I’m not a wolf. What is the combination? Legate and Hookbill are another possibility.
So – possible wolf combinations:
Mith-Durelin
Legate-Hookbill

I could in theory be matched with anyone except Mith
Kitanna could in theory be matched with anyone, too.
Question – how valid is my Kath/Kitanna theory? If it is, the Legate-Hookbill combination looks more credible. Is that why Durelin was so ready to accept it?


Ok, lets look at voting records.
Hookbill –
He votes for Manwe (an innocent) and apologises. No wolf was up for lynching that day except Saucie, with one vote from the Cobbler. So nothing particularly interesting there.
Day Two – He does not vote
Day three – Aside from Hookbill himself, everyone who was up for lynching that day was a a known innocent. (I obviously know I am an innocent.) He votes for Manwe, at a time when Brinniel was almost certain to be lynched. Hookbill’s vote came from Kitanna and he was never in any real danger.
Day four – His vote for Saucie here speaks well for him. It was instrumental in getting him lynched (if Modfire catapults had worked correctly!)
Day five – he votes Gil. Apologising. Why?
Day six – he votes Gil again. As he’s only played once, he may not be familiar with Gil’s playing style, so this is possibly forgivable.
Day seven – yet to vote

Guy, in his analysis, thinks he’s “not much to worry about”

Mith –
Day one, votes for me. The only vote I get that day.
Day two – this is interesting. Votes for Saucie, bringing him up to 2 votes – and defends Roa’s right to live Perhaps a bold move for a wolf confident that most people would vote to lynch the cobbler.
Day three – votes for me but switches to Brinniel at last minute. Why switch from one innocent to another? This is a vote which speaks in her favour. Perhaps wolf-mith doesn’t want to be accused of a safe vote again.
Day four – votes for me, just after Saucie does.
Day five – votes for Saucie, at a time when he looks a fairly safe lynch.
Day six, votes for Gil, at the last minute, when he’s safely lynched.
Day seven votes Hookbill.

Guy suspects her on day one but doesn’t vote for her. He clears her on day two but still often raises doubts about her. Sauce on the other hand is inclined to defend her. In his post 379 of suspects he leaves her out altogether. Carelessness? Freudian slip? She raises the point of Lommy’s Glirdan slip, jumped on by both Saucie and guy.

Then there is this business of her vendetta against me. Psychologically, I think a Mith-wolf would go after me like this, if we were on opposing sides – she would prefer that to deviously smarming. She is a nice person, even if she is a filthy Elendil-lover.

(By the way, I just read guy’s analysis of me from Day Four. I can’t believe I didn’t notice that before. He completely lied about who my suspects had been. He said I’d suspected Brinniel, himself and Durelin, and been neutral about Mith and Saucie. absolute nonsense. Durelin was my top suspect, followed by guy, saucie and Mith. Why did he lie? Carelessness? Or some darker purpose?)

Durelin – Day one, votes for Manwe.
Day two - votes for Roa, which brings her clear of Saucie, who had 3 votes
Day three – votes for Rune, bringing him up to three votes.
(On day four, Guy spends a long time analysing her and finds her neutral. He goes on about how long this analysis took him. In order to put someone else off? “It’ll take ages and you won’t find anything of interest anyway.”)
Day four – Votes for Legate, then quickly changes vote to Saucie. This could of course have got him (Saucie) lynched, and speaks in her favour.
Day five – votes for Saucie, second after Lommy. She herself already has 2 votes, from Saucie and Gil.
Day six – votes for Gil
Day seven – votes Hookbill

Kitanna –
Day one - Garin
Day two – does not vote
Day three – votes for Hookbill, quite early. The only vote he got that day.
Day four – votes for me. This puts me in a very vulnerable lynching position.
Day five – votes for Saucie, reluctantly.
Day six – votes for Gil.
Her voting record is terrible and if it wasn’t for Lommy’s list and my Kath theory I’d think her a wolf.
Guy thought her innocent

Legate –
Day one - Manwe
Day two - Votes for Roa, at a time when she is well clear of Saucie.
Day three – votes for Brinniel
Day four – This was the most wolfy day yet, lynch-wise. Legate does not vote. Explains why on admin thread.
Day five – votes Saucie, at a time when his lynching is fairly foregone conclusion.
Day six – votes for Mith, but at a time when Gil looks fairly set for lynching.
Day seven -votes for Mith again.

Guy is ‘uneasy’ but thinks his opinionated style speaks of his innocence. Saucie does not suspect him either.
Hmm...I was under the impression Legate’s voting record was better than this.

For fairness sake, here is my record.
Day one, Holby, switch to Manwe
Day two, Roa, middle
Day three, Brinniel fairly early
Day four – guy, switch to Saucie at last minute
Day five – Saucie, early
Day six Mithalwen, late
Day seven Mithalwen, early.

So....all this makes me feel a little confused. The Durelin/Mith combination just feels right, instinct-wise, but the voting record of Legate, and Hookbill’s position on Kitanna’s list, makes me uneasy.

For the moment, I will let my vote stand.