[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So what do I see when he enters the game? He starts spreading some mild suggestions that I (and Roa) are to be suspected and seems to be deliberately building small mountains out of almost nonexistent molehills, indeed twisting some of my posting to suit his suspicions.

I understood this part of the case, but was unclear on the specifics. Looking back, I see that you outlined your case in post #82. Since I didn’t get a chance to respond to your points then, I will do so now.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It looks like he is grasping at every straw he can twist.

I was certainly grasping at straws. Isn’t that what people do on Day 1? Given that there is so little to go on, anything slightly suspicious can get our alarm bells ringing. But I wasn’t twisting. I genuinely thought that you looked suspicious (particularly your reaction to my “bearting” comment), and so outlined those suspicions.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Then he goes on adding that remarkable suspicion that Kath and I are up to no good as we had voiced some optimism because of the basic setting of the game.

Cheery, optimistic statements like that always tweak my “suspicion radar“. Another example is Durelin’s joyful reaction toDay to the outcome of the Rikae/Roa situation.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean what is this? How does this relate to anything? How do people act in a state of "false security" and what follows from that? Sorry but I just don't get this. If on the other hand SPaM is only trying to come up with anything someone might bite, then it would be more understandable.

I would not underestimate the importance of psychology in Werewolf. An optimistic statement by an influential player that the odds are in our favour can have a psychological effect on the minds of others and so invite carelessness. It looked to me like a seemingly innocent-looking opening comment that might have malign purpose behind it.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So long as the lynch is not bent towards one of them it's pretty much the same to the were-faithfuls who is lynched. Why risk making an open campaign? But only if there is something like a big fish to be lynched.

My theory concerning those outlining early suspicions of Manwe and Glirdan was (and remains, with regard to Manwe) that some of the Faithful may have been “testing the waters” to see if a lynch campaign might be orchestrated. As I have said, concerning Manwe, I actually find those who outlined suspicions and then withdrew from them to be, on reflection, of greater concern than those who actually placed early votes for him.

One final point. You may be right that a Faithful was trying to stir suspicions of you in an attempt to take out an influential innocent, but I would expect them to do so subtly. Lommy’s comments in posts #42, #178 and #180 might be worth considering in this regard.

And now I will get on with my analysis of the Day 2 votes.