I did boast it would take but one Wolf exposed, and I could get them all. Unfortunately, my boast is ill-founded. I base my deductions on past voting records, trying to see whether a proven Wolf tried to save someone from the noose or push someone into death. From that I can see who's guilty or innocent, more or less. For what a Werewolf fears above all is dying; he fears it even more so than an ordinary villager.
In this game, however, we had nothing but bandwaggons. And bandwaggons hide these crucial clues from me. Therefore, I will treat the bandwaggoners as suspect.
DAY 1:
Eomer bandwaggon (ordo)
Who voted?
Volo (wolf),
Nogrod (ordo),
spawn (ordo),
Lommy (unknown)
Well, the only unknown left here is
Lommy, and her vote tells us nothing. She and
spawn cross-voted for
Eomer's killing vote, which would go against her if a wolf was in danger--unfortunately, all second-placers (
spawn,
Kitanna, and
Farael) were proven innocents.
DAY 2:
Kitanna bandwaggon (ordo)
Who voted?
Nilp (unknown),
Menel (unknown),
Lommy (unknown),
Boro (ordo),
Volo (wolf),
Nogrod (ordo)
This also tells us little.
Kitanna received almost half the village's votes. Although it is interesting to see that
Lommy and
Volo joined this bandwaggon, too.
DAY 3:
Kath bandwaggon (hunter)
Who voted?
Durelin (seer),
Valier (unknown),
Nogrod (ordo),
Lommy (unknown),
Boro (ordo)
Volo didn't vote, but
Lommy was still in this one. I already did an analysis of those who voted in the bandwaggon yesterDAY, and I quote it here:
Quote:
Valier accepted the arguments set forth at face-value (q.v. 230.) Quite suspicious, and added to that she throws suspicion at me out of nowhere, alluding to my lack of sensible posts.
Lommy's vote lacks reasoning (I did try looking for one, but apparently she believed Boromir 'has good points, especially that one about Kath.' (q.v. 234) In the same post she answers Boro's suspicion of her. Interesting . . .
Also, she trusts a wolf-Menel to be able to reveal himself easier. Perhaps, it can be read to mean that if Menel is lynched and turns out to be furry, she can get credit for it. Hmmm . . . (Nilp)
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DAY 4:
Volo bandwaggon (wolf)
Who voted?
Nilp (unknown),
Lommy (unknown),
Ang (ordo),
Holby (unknown),
Rune (unknown),
Valier (unknown)
As I had predicted, this gives me little clues to work on.
Volo,
Menel, and
Durelin (?!) were the only ones who failed to vote for
Volo
~*~
Well, it looks bad for
Lommy, but I still believe what I said yesterDAY about
Menel:
Quote:
Menel's reason to vote for Rune (q.v. 207) is rather feeble, and it has been even more weakened due to Nogrod's innocence, yet he holds on to it toDAY until Durelin tells him that his analysis of Lommy makes more sense--see 277 then read on to the bottom of the page.
. . .
Now, what have I learned from this? Lommy and Menel feels hairy, but if they are two of the Wolves I find their tactic strange. They're trying to get each other killed! Then again, a wolf-Menel back in WWIX did the same thing with Shelob, and they won that game with their numbers intact. (A little history; it makes Menel look all the more dangerous to me.) (Nilp)
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As for his only post today . . . it feels similar to
Kitanna's nonchalance at her upcoming death . . . is he hoping we'd think him innocent, too? I don't know . . .
++Meneltarmacil