Warning: This is long. It's an analysis of
Nogrod and can that guy talk!
This is only Day 1 as well, should get the rest up later, I'm writing it as you read this. However, I won't be around tomorrow (RL) which means I have to do as much of this as I can and vote toNight. I hope to get it finished but with how long it's taken so far it may not be possible. Anyway sorry this didn't go up yesterDay but thanks to powercuts there was simply no way it could.
Nogrod:
Day 1:
Post 13: Agrees with Rune that it may be the three non-dwarves that are the wolves. Which actually hasn't been disproved since Valier, Lommy and Menel are all still alive. Believes the Twins to be good. Pretty standard opening comment.
Post 16: Then says it's too convenient for the non-dwarves to be the wolves, except maybe it's not - flip-floppy and unable to come to a conclusion. Look, I know this is all based around what was obviously a joke, but it doesn't mean you can't get relevant information from it. Don't look at the specific words but what they show. He's covering his back.
Post 20: Again covering himself somewhat, and I'm not sure why he says everyone should look at Boro. If both Boro and Nogrod are wolves it may make sense for one to mention the other just in passing on Day 1. That way if one is later lynched and we look back at what they said there isn't an obvious omission.
Post 30: He then clears Boro, saying he would not wish to vote for him, but does not seem to have 'looked at' him as he said should happen. About halves the village, suspecting those who had barely posted and thinking those who had posted more innocent. His innocent list consisted of Boro, spawn, Farael, Volo and Ang, though Ang was almost an afterthought. Two of that list are now dead and have been found innocent. If Nogrod is a wolf I think it's likely that one wolf would have been put in this innocent list.
Post 34: Mentions suspicion of Gloanna, and says that he does think her suspicious but not overly so.
Post 35: Apologises for misspelling Boro's name ... I think.
Post 57: Lists the voting so far and the reasons for said votes.
Post 61: Wonders how Rune found Menel innocent, saying that if both were wolves Rune wouldn't have said it. Thinks Lommy may be wolvish because she isn't being original, but says he'll give her the benefit of the doubt. Says Nilp and Valier shouldn't be voted for because they haven't had a chance to post. Wary of Durelin and Eomer because they posted little and left early.
Post 63: Argues with Eomer saying that analysis is good on Day 1 as it heightens the chance of catching a wolf. Yes it does, but if a wolf is orchestrating the analysis it can lower the chance, and it was Nogrod who tried to move everyone away from the in-character stuff.
Post 66: Notes that although Eomer says Day 1 posting has value when looked at in retrospect, Eomer's own posting would tell people nothing, and thinks this suspicious. True indeed. Nogrod pushed for Eomer's lynch and got it, and that's a shame because I would have loved to see whether he made it through the first Night and how Nogrod would have dealt with it either way.
Post 67: Agrees with Lommy that Kath seems suspicious for thinking Lommy's post had good points, thus indirectly backing up his earlier claim that Lommy is not being as good a player as she could be.
Post 73: I'm a mite confused. He says he doesn't want Boro lynched until the Seer is dead. Why not? If Boro is innocent the Seer isn't about to tell anyone, at least not unless he/she dreams of Boro and then the three wolves. But if the Seer dies without giving such a list there is no evidence to prove him guilty or innocent. Just seems an odd thing to say. Same goes for what he says about spawn. Wants Lommy and Ang alive. Some suspicion over Gloanna and Kath who may possibly be working together, a theory now disproved, and thinks that at least one is a wolf. Repeats suspicion of Eomer and says he is also somewhat suspicion of Durelin and will look at her later.
Post 79: Looks at Durelin and mentions that though she mentions Kath's lack of talking she also considers this normal. I think Nogrod is wondering whether this means the two are working together or not. Thinks Naria and Menel were trying to hide in the majority by voting with the tide. Naria may well have been but she was no wolf, the same can't yet be said for Menel.
Post 83: Gives a voting list and mentions that the Finns are the ones who will decide the lynch.
Post 87: Suspicion of Gloanna, Kath and Eomer. Seems to be downgrading Gloanna as a suspect after what Boro said (taking advice?) and Eomer as well to some extent saying he is too hard to get a handle on.
Post 88: Asks if anyone is willing to help lynch Eomer. It's so blatant, he wants Eomer dead. Would a wolf be that bold? Nogrod plays safe a lot of the time but he is a very good player ... I wouldn't put it past him.
Post 92: Votes Eomer and tells Lommy not to just not vote.
Post 96: Not sure what he's advising people to do, it almost looks like he's trying either to save Eomer or to get a double lynch. What were you up to Nogrod?
Post 101: Points out the deadline.
Eomer was susbsequently lynched and found to be innocent.
Now, it's probably obvious to all that I began that thinking
Nogrod guilty so please if you got through it and you're still awake comment on it, give me some perspectives! Right now I've got consipiracy theories a mile long round this guy and it's possible not one is right, I need some input.
From Day 1 I think it's possible that
Boro or
Ang could be fellow wolves if
Nogrod is one, but I think it unlikely that both would be. I'm aware that leaves a third slot open, but from this I don't know who would fill that.