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Excellent thread, Elempí!
Being somewhat interested in ancient history, I've been pondering stuff like that, too, for a long time but thought it too silly to make a thread of it.
I agree with your general classification. The first age is of a very archaic nature and perfectly fits the early antiquity. On the one hand, you have the 'high' cultures of Egypt, Mesopotamia and Anatolia, which could resemble the different elvish cultures and kingdoms. On the other you have the more peasant-like cultures of men, who could resemble the celtic and germanic, maybe also the mycenaic greek, cultures of that era. The strong commingling of history and religion (interference of Gods etc.) is typical for both the Quenta Silmarillion and Iliad, Odyssey, Old Testament (which I would put in here, but discussing that is beside the topic) and all those old epics.
The classical and later antiquity would be the second age then. I would start the era with the emergence of the Persians and the rise of monotheism they brought with them. Sure, this is just a coincidence with the monotheistic development of Númenor, but it's a nice one. The mid-númenorian era of Aldarion and Minastir would fit the classical Greece and earliest Rome, where both might and nobility are at peak. The Roman Empire has a clear resemblance of the late Númenor, both being in a process of decay and being swept away by a wave, so to speak, in the end. I can easily picture a similarity of the army that Pharazôn led to Middle-earth and the roman cohorts.
In Middle-earth, we don't find a 'dark' era like we do in real history. Arnor and Gondor follow Númenor very quickly, whereas it takes some centuries til the elendilian Charles the Great becomes Emperor and takes this old tradition up again. The third age has a very medieval feel to it, doubtless. I see the parallels just like you do.
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