[Nogrod]

Looking at Valier...

Dance1
#75 Tries to dismerit the “lynch the silents”-suggestion by making the point that whatever we do the wolves will accustom their ways accordingly to defeat us.

I know that killing the silent ones may sound like a good idea, but I think it folly. Whatever we say the wolves will certainly take into account. If we say kill the silent ones they will talk lots, if we say kill the loud ones they will back off.

But how does this actually dismerit the plan? Here I think Morm has a point about the cobblery: a cobbler would like to point out that we can’t use any tactics – and would like to dismerit especially Farael’s quite reasonable plan that would make the wolves talking and thence force them out in the open for the following Dances to come.

#100 Thank’s Morm for the vote and promises to come back.

#112 Goes on the footsteps of Folwren:

Oh we need to vote. Well I agree with Folwren on this one. I think Farael putting forth so much posting about killing off the silent ones, then not heeding his own advice to be well... wrong.

As I said earlier this looks like a trial to a safe vote. But it’s also pretty superficial as the reason does not hold a bit.

Dance2
#138 Speculates about reasons why Kitanna was killed and then defends herself against Morm’s suspicions. And surely this looks a bit funny:

Let me just say Morm ALWAYS suspects me the first few days....Not to say that sometimes he isn't right, but this time he has no good evidence at all to point to my wolvishness

Just read the part I have bolded... (it kind of reminds me about wolf-Roa saying “I have never been a wolf before” in one game a long time ago )

#162 She starts to really defend herself against Farael with the most elliptic fashion.

I don't consider myself to be a quiet villager, I just need time to adjust to the game and get a feel for people. This is how I have always played. ... What if you are wrong and you kill all us "silent" ones and we turn out to be Ordos, then you lose out on our help later on.

I think we all need to get the feel for people. Why should someone be immune to lynching because of that? Or why is it worse to mistakingly kill the silents (and lose their help) as the louder ones? In fact I see it the contrary way. The silents turn out to be more scary with every Dance done.
She also thinks that Farael’s plan should include the cobblers too as they should be loud and confusing. I’m not sure if that holds in these first Dances. But anyhow – as I have already said – I think the time to look seriously at the cobblers isn’t yet as we should look primarily at the wolves.

#163 She goes even more odd:

If we keep up with your little plan Farael we shall all find ourselves in a great deal of hurt when there are less and less Ordos around.

Now why is lynching the silent ones going to reduce the number of ordos more than lynching other than silent people? There seems to be no way of knowing that to anyone of us – except the wolves and the cobblers. And if Valier is either of them, then her reaction would indeed point that also another baddie might be among the quiet...
Then there was the misunderstanding stuff.

#164 Correcting the misunderstanding.

I have said that we should concentrate on finding a wolf, but Valier seems to be more cobblerish indeed (if the wolvishness thing wasn't an actual slip). Many of her points would look like that. It is also noteworthy that she has said little or nothing of a relatively large group of people. That would be a perfect cobblery (or wolvery) as her wolf (or wolfmate) would nicely stay uncommented and unlinked to her among a host of people.

I’m not saying she is the cobbler, but a very good candidate for it as far as I can see.