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Old 11-17-2006, 06:47 PM   #322
Nogrod
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Well just looking at the bare facts - and then interpreting them a little...

tp was one of the favourite-suspects on Day1. After that he has not gained any substantial suspicion - Roa and myself and I think some others have given a point or two against him after that, but nothing of any consequence. To counter that many a people have been happy to affirm their trust on him. Just that alone should ring some bells... So is he just so convincing with his innocence? Or is there a fear-factor involved by which no one wishes to suspect him?

At least his voting record is more than safe (according to the standards I think fit here eg. the wolves are not afraid to bandwaggon, on the contrary). On Day1 he casted the last vote for Di (bringing her even with Boro). On Day2 he brought Eomer to 3 votes. I agree he's an asset if innocent but I wouldn't count on it either. No one should go on unscrutinised...

Di was another favourite suspect on Days1 and 2. One of her voters was lmp we know is innocent but tp's vote (D1) does stand a bit safe there... Then again Di set entirely safe votes for Boro (the first vote of which no one can blame if the reason is ranting) on Day1 and for Eomer as the last voter on Day2 herself.

I don't know what to say of her. She introduced the law of Di being always innocent and told us she would be quitting WW after this one... that sounds genuine as I can't see her making a trick like that in a game. Or then she might do it. But probably not.

Spm is the hard nut to crack (who isn't?). He sounds the most reasonable one here and just because of that he should be lynched? No. There seems to be a bunch of situations where an intelligent Spm-wolf would have acted just the way he has (look my earlier posts for more) but still I feel him more innocent than guilty. But is my feeling right? I don't trust it even though I feel it.

But his voting record looks quite terrible. First he votes tp and changes to lmp, then on Day2 sticks with lmp as the first vote of the Day. Surely he can say his votes have been fun and based on old rivalries, but due to that they are safe too... ToDay he jumps on Roa and that sounds more innocent, but not freeing in anyway. It was early enough and he will have his chance to change it if needs be... As I said, very hard to see.

But as I've said before, I'd like to see him in the game as he makes sense and if innocent would help us a lot. If a wolf, well, he'll slip sooner or later (if he hasn't already?).

Kath is an enigma here. Were she a wolf, she would be playing a wonderful game. A nasty tactics, I admit. But she's done that before and would be a nice and balancing wolf for Fea.

Her voting is a talking example of this. On Day1 a waggon vote on tp (the last of them) and on Day2 carefully sprerading the vote after I had commented about wolves wishing to narrow the suspects as long as they are not among them themselves.

But I can't say that is in some way conclusive. She might just be herself wishing to stay alive the first Days to gear up later... Not that I approve of the tactics, but if we're after the wolf here and not after the tactics we approve, then I'm not sure if there is enough reason to vote her.

Estelyn basically got through the first two Days by a goodwill. Even though the possibility of Fea choosing her was raised a few times. I've talked of her enough earlier so I will not say much here.

But she has brought someone up from one to two votes everyDay (Boro, Di, Spm)! Could anyone think of a safer way to be a wolf? I mean she withdraws early but she always votes for someone who already has votes...

Even though I feel wrong to suspect her my reason says she is a worthwhile candidate for a wolf.

Roa seems to be another fear-factor player here. No one dared to suspect her until Spm (by force) and Ang decided to give it a try (as she had gone away... how convenient?). She's a human, c'mon! I've lost to her, I've won her and I've also won with her!

She makes cases, yes she does. But she does them both innocent and a baddie. Her voting record is quite hard to interpret as she has voted for Di on two first Days (on Day1 starting the vore for Di, on Day2 closing it) and her vote for Esty toDay was quite well founded - I'm not making comments on how good the reasons were as I think I have lots of better reasons to suspect Esty, but that she had prepared a case for her first and then voted on grounds of it. Rational player voting if needing to go off early - or very rational wolf-voting.

I'm very unsure about her too. Somehow I'm inclined to see her as innocent this time, but something tells me otherwise. It just feels so stupid to suspect her in every game... *computing*

Ang and Mith to come (of whom I seem to know nothing)... I just need a break and will ease your reading by cutting this to smaller units...

I will also have to say something more definitive abut this too as I have to vote...
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