The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI

Nogrod · 11-15-2006, 06:53 PM

I have no time to make an all around -scan here so I'll stick to those still alive and who received no votes on Day1 (by my "the careful wolf on Day1" suspicion)

Eomer of the Rohirrim
Estelyn Telcontar
Kath
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Roa_Aoife

On the following I will not include any judgements of myself as that is the task of you others.

On Day1 / basic points
Of these the safest game was played to my eye by Eomer, Estelyn and Kath. To my opinion they would make excellent Fea-choises for a wolf too – as would many others, that admitted.

Mith’s vote for Bb was a risky one, maybe too risky for a wolf (even if it didn’t result in any actual votes in the end). I will exclude her from this notion onwards.

Roa played somewhat as she normally does. That might be interpreted “safe” in a way, but she at least threw her neck in and got involved. And tp: Roa is a firm believer in reason and arguments, just like you seem to be – and as I am. Unfortunately we are put in the test in this game as the room has been narrowed quite considerably.

If we add to this the voting, I think that the wolves would not like to spread the vote in the last moments / would be inclined to cast early votes. But basically, if anyone else than them is gaining votes a wolf would like to add gathering votes to that one / those ones. The wolf acts alone now and the situation differs a lot from a normal game: all the usual “bandwaggoning principles” don’t hold here. It’s harder for us to read and thence easier for the wolves to join as they do not need to care about any connections as there are no (we can’t speculate whether X knew what was the status of Y as no one here knows but her/himself and if the lynching of another wolf might be a positive thing for the other - so everything goes for the wolves as long as it's not themselves).

So of those possibly not-notified, it can be gathered:
Eomer gave an easy and early vote for lmp.
Kath went to give tp his third vote, explanation: random but biased.
Estelyn brought Boro up to two “based on several next-to-nothings”.
Roa spread the vote giving Di her first for over-defenciveness.

Paying heed to my theory about the wolves preferred voting style, that would make Eomer, Kath and Estelyn look the most suspicious ones.

On Day2
Eomer has mostly sticked with making arguments that frame himself, but also made a reasoned list of people based on a principle, having a row of sorts - pretty tongue in cheek for his part - with Ang.
Kath has been quiet and defended her quietness with the reason that she will only gear up on Day3-4. Very convenient for a wolf if we should all wait.
Estelyn: “Perhaps she (Fea) thought that (I, Estelyn) would make me less calculable for the strategic experts...” after that lots of fun.
Roa continued with typical Roaishness. As on Day one. No clear read-outs there. She would act the same anyhow. I'm the last one to come forwards with open trust on her but really that does not ring any alarm-bells with me either. And about what both tp and Spm have been suggesting, she might be strict with her honour but in any case would defend logical argumentation and grounded votes over anything even suggesting randomness, and do it fiercely. Trust me, I've played with her a several times.

Eomer made again an early vote (decent guy, goes to bed early...) for Kath in concerto with his mirror-theory about Morm's death.
Esty brought Di to two.

To conclude:
- Roa I see as playing herself. That is both a good sign and a worrying sign. You just don't know about her. Not my vote toDay, anyway.
- Esty, if played only in one game so far, I will truly look at her with not a lynch in mind toDay, even though I must agree with the few that she would make a first-class Fea-pick and her actions might be easily seen as a careful wolf's deeds.
- Eomer has been a bit weird but then again he has been making some actual points and sticked with them toDay. Nevertheless much more tame and easy that I would have expected. Self-condemning moves might also be pure Eomer(-wolf).
- Kath has been so reserved. As she so often is in the beginning of the game. But I have seen her conquer with that style before, just from too near...

I will go for

++ Kath

She has a self-defending armour of not being of any use in the first Days. And she seems to stick with it. It might be honest, but I have seen her use it to her advantage too. It is no good if some people are let to live Day after Day just because they will be possible assets later - thence giving them peace over the maddness of the first Days also when they are baddies. Also her vote on Day1 followed the line I thought the wolves might wish to do.

tp, I know your point about just stating the fact (it might be or not) truly applies here too (as with yourself). But with this little to go for with anyone in these time-limits I would rather not see a sneaky wolf under radar.

I'm deeply conscious that I'm also giving a second vote to someone toDay... But that is the best I can come up with at this moment. I need to sleep now.

11-15-2006, 06:53 PM	#237
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	I have no time to make an all around -scan here so I'll stick to those still alive and who received no votes on Day1 (by my "the careful wolf on Day1" suspicion) Eomer of the Rohirrim Estelyn Telcontar Kath Mithalwen Nogrod Roa_Aoife On the following I will not include any judgements of myself as that is the task of you others. On Day1 / basic points Of these the safest game was played to my eye by Eomer, Estelyn and Kath. To my opinion they would make excellent Fea-choises for a wolf too – as would many others, that admitted. Mith’s vote for Bb was a risky one, maybe too risky for a wolf (even if it didn’t result in any actual votes in the end). I will exclude her from this notion onwards. Roa played somewhat as she normally does. That might be interpreted “safe” in a way, but she at least threw her neck in and got involved. And tp: Roa is a firm believer in reason and arguments, just like you seem to be – and as I am. Unfortunately we are put in the test in this game as the room has been narrowed quite considerably. If we add to this the voting, I think that the wolves would not like to spread the vote in the last moments / would be inclined to cast early votes. But basically, if anyone else than them is gaining votes a wolf would like to add gathering votes to that one / those ones. The wolf acts alone now and the situation differs a lot from a normal game: all the usual “bandwaggoning principles” don’t hold here. It’s harder for us to read and thence easier for the wolves to join as they do not need to care about any connections as there are no (we can’t speculate whether X knew what was the status of Y as no one here knows but her/himself and if the lynching of another wolf might be a positive thing for the other - so everything goes for the wolves as long as it's not themselves). So of those possibly not-notified, it can be gathered: Eomer gave an easy and early vote for lmp. Kath went to give tp his third vote, explanation: random but biased. Estelyn brought Boro up to two “based on several next-to-nothings”. Roa spread the vote giving Di her first for over-defenciveness. Paying heed to my theory about the wolves preferred voting style, that would make Eomer, Kath and Estelyn look the most suspicious ones. On Day2 Eomer has mostly sticked with making arguments that frame himself, but also made a reasoned list of people based on a principle, having a row of sorts - pretty tongue in cheek for his part - with Ang. Kath has been quiet and defended her quietness with the reason that she will only gear up on Day3-4. Very convenient for a wolf if we should all wait. Estelyn: “Perhaps she (Fea) thought that (I, Estelyn) would make me less calculable for the strategic experts...” after that lots of fun. Roa continued with typical Roaishness. As on Day one. No clear read-outs there. She would act the same anyhow. I'm the last one to come forwards with open trust on her but really that does not ring any alarm-bells with me either. And about what both tp and Spm have been suggesting, she might be strict with her honour but in any case would defend logical argumentation and grounded votes over anything even suggesting randomness, and do it fiercely. Trust me, I've played with her a several times. Eomer made again an early vote (decent guy, goes to bed early...) for Kath in concerto with his mirror-theory about Morm's death. Esty brought Di to two. To conclude: - Roa I see as playing herself. That is both a good sign and a worrying sign. You just don't know about her. Not my vote toDay, anyway. - Esty, if played only in one game so far, I will truly look at her with not a lynch in mind toDay, even though I must agree with the few that she would make a first-class Fea-pick and her actions might be easily seen as a careful wolf's deeds. - Eomer has been a bit weird but then again he has been making some actual points and sticked with them toDay. Nevertheless much more tame and easy that I would have expected. Self-condemning moves might also be pure Eomer(-wolf). - Kath has been so reserved. As she so often is in the beginning of the game. But I have seen her conquer with that style before, just from too near... I will go for ++ Kath She has a self-defending armour of not being of any use in the first Days. And she seems to stick with it. It might be honest, but I have seen her use it to her advantage too. It is no good if some people are let to live Day after Day just because they will be possible assets later - thence giving them peace over the maddness of the first Days also when they are baddies. Also her vote on Day1 followed the line I thought the wolves might wish to do. tp, I know your point about just stating the fact (it might be or not) truly applies here too (as with yourself). But with this little to go for with anyone in these time-limits I would rather not see a sneaky wolf under radar. I'm deeply conscious that I'm also giving a second vote to someone toDay... But that is the best I can come up with at this moment. I need to sleep now. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...