[The Saucepan Man]

Format as before.

1. Diamond -> SpM (SpM-1)
2. Ang -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-1)
3. Caran -> Lalaith (SpM-1, Rune-1, Lalaith-1)
4. Durelin -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-2, Lalaith-1)
5. SpM -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1)
6. Kath -> Glirdan (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1)
7. TGWBS -> Gurthang (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-1)
8. Lalaith -> Gurthang (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
9. Rune -> SpM (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
10. Glirdan -> SpM (SpM-3, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
11. Firefoot -> Rune (SpM-3, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
12. Taliesin -> SpM (SpM-4, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
13. Gurthang -> Rune (SpM-4, Rune-5, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
14. Findesea -> Rune (SpM-4, Rune-6, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)

Two main bandwaggons - Rune and SpM.

I am pretty much convinced that at least one Wolf, quite possibly two, voted for Rune yesterDay, because I think it distinctly possible that Caran's speculation that Rune was put up as a sacrificial victim to make his fellow Wolves look good is spot on. If not, then his sacrifice certainly became pragmatic to them as the Day progressed. I am going to look at the way that suspicion built up around Rune as the Day progressed in a moment (it's important because one of the main reasons that Rune became such a prime lynching candidate was the spat with Gurthang over his vote for Eomer contrasted with his reasoning for being reluctant to vote for me), but for now I am just looking at the votes.

I have to acknowledge that my vote for Rune looks rather Wolfish, particularly as a great deal of suspicion was being thrown his way, and he already had 2 votes, at the time I voted. All I can say on this is that I am not a Wolf and my vote for Rune was not a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. It's up to you whether you believe that.

The other Rune voters who remain unknowns were Anguirel, Durelin, Firefoot and Gurthang. Much suspicion had been expressed of Rune already when all of these were cast, moreso the later ones. However, I think it likely that a Wolf would have been looking to put their vote for Rune in at a fairly decisive moment. To my mind, the votes of Firefoot and Gurthang look the most Wolfish. By the stage that they both voted, it was pretty clear that it was going to be between me and Rune, with Gurthang a possible contender at the time Firefoot voted. This only really helps me, but I know that my death would have proven me innocent. So, if Firefoot and/or Gurthang is a Wolf, they had the choice between being caught in the badwaggon of one who would be proven innocent (which would look bad) or sacrificing one of their own (which would look good). The Wolves could afford to lose one of their number. Perhaps two of them even thought Rune the Wolf Lover (although not if he had volunteered to be the sacrifical Wolf the Night before).

Indeed, if Gurthang was a Wolf, he found himself in the rather enviable (for a Wolf) position of being able to save me and take part of the credit for killing a Wolf. That would look doubly good if were to die at some point. And I rather agree with Lalaith that his self-serving post suggesting himself as a possible sacrifice to save me looks suspicious. Other than me, only the Wolves know that I am innocent and that this comment might therefore put him in a good light in the long-term. He has sought to explain it by saying that he was attracting more suspicion than me. YesterDay's voting (4 votes for me, 2 votes for Gurthang) hardly bears that out.

On balance, I think that two Wolves probably voted for Rune, and my tentative conclusion is that those Wolves were probably Gurthang and Firefoot, although I do not dismiss the possibility that Anguirel started the ball rolling with a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Durelin had been suspecting Rune from Day 3 (and voted for him on Day 3 too). So, unless there was a long term plan to sacrifice him (ie going back further than Night 4), she was being consistent. I also remain generally comfortable about Durelin for other the other reasons I have previously mentioned, so I am not too concerned about her vote.

The thing that troubles me about definately labelling Gurthang a Wolf is that, looking back at the way the case against Rune gathered during the Day, it is clear that he (or, more accurately, his spat with Rune) was the main force behind those suspicions. And the other two main instigators of them were Anguirel and Firefoot, my other two possible Rune-voting Wolves. If one or two of these three are Wolves, this would point towards the Rune sacrifice having been pre-arranged. But it gives me some cause for doubt.

On to some of the other votes.

Of those in the SpM bandwaggon, one was a Wolf, one was an innocent, one is a known non-Wolf and one, Glirdan, remains unknown. Glirdan's vote followed Rune's vote for me, although Glirdan had expressed strong suspicions of me from fairly early on in the Day. Nevertheless, I think it unlikely that there was more than one Wolf voting for me, so this somewaht eases my suspicions of Glirdan.

Rune's vote for me alas does not go very far towards clearing me, as it would benefit two Wolves to vote for each other in circumstances where the two of them were the main lynch candidates. With no double lynchings, one would die leaving the other in a position to take some of the credit.

Given how (to my mind at least) there seems to be much pointing towards Gurthang being a Wolf, the fact that TGWBS and Lalaith both voted for him gives me further cause to feel comfortable about the two of them. If Gurthang is a Wolf, and there was a plan (whether prearranged or ad hoc) to sacrifice Rune, it is highly unlikely that any Wolves would have cast a Wolf-on-Wolf vote for another of their number. Also, Rune had been attacking TGWBS fairly strongly on Day 3 and this also speaks in Guy's favour.

The other vote worthy of mention is Kath's vote for Glirdan. In my Day 1 analysis I noted that Glirdan's Day 1 vote for Kath made it unlikely that both were Wolves together. That is even more the case with Kath's vote here. Given that, as I recall, Glirdan was never a serious contender to be lycnhed yesterDay, this might be viewed as a safe vote. It was quite early, but Rune had already taken quite a lead in the lynching stakes.