[The Saucepan Man]

I have no objection in principle to TGWBS’ suggestion that the known non-Wolves each identify a short-list of candidates for lynching. We can rely on at least two of them being untainted. One of the known non-Wolves may be the “innocent” Lover but, even if that is the case, they still have an interest in reducing the general Wolvish population (by a factor of three by the end of the game).

Unfortunately I have to vote now, but that does not mean that the plan should not be put into action. It will give those of us who are here tomorrow something to go on from whichever known non-Wolf the Wolves decide to kill tonight.

As expected, I have not had time to do anything like the full analysis that I would have liked to do in the current circumstances. However, here are my views of the “unknowns” based on what has been said today and my recollection of the past Days’ events:

Durelin: I am pretty sure that she is innocent, of Wolvishness at least. She has been behaving erratically, which is precisely how I would expect an innocent Durelin to behave. I don’t think that her “eccentricity” would come across as quite so genuine if she were a Wolf trying to follow her usual pattern of behaviour.

Kath: I am suspicious of Kath because of her vote yesterday for morm, and also because she seems to be basing her reasoning on points made by others, rather than coming up with her own thoughts. A definite possibility in my mind.

Lalaith: There is little basis upon which to suspect Lalaith. She has been consistently concise and helpful. She brings up good points which other have not thought of. It’s her usual approach, but it still worries me. A Wolfish Lalaith is deadly, and very difficult to spot. And the points she brings up could well be designed to lead us astray.

Diamond18: I could go either way on Diamond. Her swingeing attack on me appears genuine and, although it does rather misrepresent what I have said (particularly with regard to the Eomer voters – she accuses me of attempting to frame the Eomer voters, but doesn’t mention my later speculation that there may well have been no Wolves among those who voted for him), she gives links to my posts, so I am tempted to conclude that there is no deliberate attempt here to mislead. Wolves generally do not take such extreme positions, because they can come back and bite them. That said, she may be anticipating such reasoning and, other than her attack on me, she has put forward few opinions on whom might be Wolves.

Firefoot: I keep changing my mind on Firefoot. I remain convinced that there was a Wolf among the Day 1 Nilp voters. Since I believe Durelin to be innocent, that Wolf would have to be either Firefoot or Anguirel. Early on, she was very quiet and non-committal but has (apparently) become more helpful as the Days have progressed. However her main contribution toDay has been to focus on possible Wolf-on-Wolf votes. Not very helpful if there have been none (which a Wolf would, of course, know). She also noted that Wolves almost always vote, which I agree with as a general rule, but which would be very convenient if one of the Wolves has in fact not voted on one of the previous Days. And I don’t like her reluctance to consider TGWBS’s plan to use the known non-Wolves.

Gurthang: His votes on Days 1 and 2 looked very safe, yet his vote yesterday was a rather risky one for a Wolf (even assuming that, if a Wolf, he did not suspect Holby as the Seer). Perhaps he was attempting to correct the impression that his early votes gave of a possible safe-voting Wolf. While he has come across as genuine in most of his posts, he is cunning enough to give that impression, if a Wolf. And that Day 1 encouragement of the Eomer bandwagon, followed by a vote for Diamond, still rankles with me. I remain undecided on Gurthang.

Rune Son of Bjarne: As I said earlier, Rune’s first post of the Day smacked to me of Wolfishness. He said that he was surprised that Holby was the Seer (having voted for her). Well, I am sure that most, if not all, of us were surprised when she revealed. Why did he feel the need to make the point, particularly as no one had called him on the point? Then, conveniently, he states that he suspected none of those identified by Holby as innocents, so that didn’t help him. Whether or not one suspected them previously, it is still very helpful to have known innocents (or at least known non-Wolves) around. Then he thanks Firefoot for her voting tally. This post is comprised solely of neutral, unobjectionable comments, all of which appear designed to make Rune look good. Call it instinct, but that looks to me to be the post of a Wolf wanting to say something apparently constructive at the outset of the Day but not wanting to commit to much before seeing which way the ship is leaning. Similarly his response to Diamond’s points against me. He says that he is not convinced, but does not dimiss the possibility of voting for me if a good enough case can be made. And then there is his little spat with Gurthang which others have mentioned (and which would speak in Gurthang’s favour of he is a Wolf). He’s looking very much like a Wolf to me at the moment.

Anguirel: As with Lalaith, I find little basis on which to suspect Anguirel. He is, however, perfectly capable of pulling off a convincing innocent act. He is dangerous, if a Wolf, but I cannot vote for him on that basis alone and I can’t help but think that he is talking far too much to be a Wolf. Keeping my eye on him, though.

Glirdan: I am beginning to revise my opinion of Girdan. He seems to have jumped rather enthusiastically on Diamond’s case against me toDay. He said that he has had a feeling about me since Day 1, but that, as far as I can recall, he outlined no firm suspicions of me until yesterDay. That makes him look suspicious, at least in my eyes. Otherwise, he seems to be acting normally for him, but he nevertheless concerns me.

TGWBS: I remain of the view that TGWBS is likely to be innocent. If he were a Wolf, I would expect him to have been much more involved. His known non-Wolf plan reinforces my view of his likely innocence.

Ai! And now I must vote. Unfortunately, the person who looks most Wolfish to me is also one who has been identified as a possible Wolf by a number of people who I suspect may be Wolves themselves. And I am hesitant to join what is fast becoming a bandwagon. That said, he does look Wolfish to me and, if he is a Wolf, I will be feeling a lot better about those other possible Wolves.

+ + RUNE SON OF BJARNE