The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

Macalaure · 06-08-2006, 12:15 PM

Chance of a regular innocent to pick one other innocent now: 12 out of 15

Same after one lynching and one killing: 9 out of 12 (if no wp is lynched)

12/15 * 9/12 = 3/5 a chance for an innocent to pick two other innocents. Only a little more than 50-50. The wps can single almost half of us out as possible seers. And that after two days! Way no good.

But I think we can abandon all this for the reasons Ang gave, anyway. It's unlikely that all innocents will join in...

06-08-2006, 12:15 PM	#51
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	WARNING: Next post contains math! Chance of a regular innocent to pick one other innocent now: 12 out of 15 Same after one lynching and one killing: 9 out of 12 (if no wp is lynched) 12/15 * 9/12 = 3/5 a chance for an innocent to pick two other innocents. Only a little more than 50-50. The wps can single almost half of us out as possible seers. And that after two days! Way no good. But I think we can abandon all this for the reasons Ang gave, anyway. It's unlikely that all innocents will join in...