Well, Dancing Spawn’s posts reveal little enough. Her main suspects were Mith and TGWBS, and if the wolves thought her to be a Seer, I think it would primarily look bad for the former.
Who have we got left?
Lhuna - traveller with absolutely no sense of direction
Cailín - tragedienne
Fea - confectionist
Celuien - ketchup grower
TGWBS - Pokémaster
Lommy - AA-adviser
Nogrod - owner of ME's first hamburger restaurant
lmp - gravedigger
Tom - tree surgeon
Caran - town poet
Findëasëa (from now called Fin) - alpaca herder
Mith - aura consultant
morm - butcher
Durelin – ninja
Among these people are four gifteds still (if you include the Changeling) and three wolves. Basically, if we would lynch a random person, chances would be higher it’s a Gifted than a wolf currently. We must avoid this. Here is me thinking aloud or
a remarkable and unique insight into the brains of world famous tragedienne Cailín:
# 1
Lhuna is one of the wolves
Not completely impossible. Lhuna is behaving much more level-headed than usual. She gave us a lot of tentative suspicions yesterDay, also shifting focus back to Fea. Now if Lhuna is a wolf, she is rather safe from the lynching mob. We usually cut her some slack due to her terrible timezone disease. As long as she does nothing terribly horrendous, we let it slide. Well, she has done nothing terrible: her votes and suspicions are still on the safe side. She believed in the innocence of Caran and Spawn from the start… if Lhuna is a wolf, she’s playing her cards right. Because of previous experiences with her, I don’t think she is (this is meant more nicely than it seems, really!).
# 2
Durelin and Tom are wolves.
Durelin starts the first Day by voting randomly for Saucepan Man. As something told me this was traditional and as more people had cast random votes before that, I found the amount of attention this vote got rather baffling. Then she changes her vote to Tom, at a point where it is unlikely he will get any more votes. Now that seems like a safe wolf on wolf vote.
Tom only posted once that Day, voting for Boromir with some reasoning. Not decidedly wolvish, but not un-wolvish either.
The Day after, Durelin immediately gets the possible bold wolf stamp. Still, rather surprising, as her random vote for SpM did not seem so bold to me. I think –personally- she had not anticipated the strong reactions to her randomness.
Quote:
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There was no need for the Wolves to take any risks yesterday.
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Saucy’s words. They may be true, but I don’t know. Anyway, Durelin proceeds to express some mild suspicion of Saucy (actually more of a theory concerning Saucy looking good after the one he defended turned out innocent). She then in a rather long post votes for Saucy, expecting not to join a bandwagon, but unknowingly she did. Reading back I’m starting to find Durelin less suspicious, but she is not off my suspect list yet. That’s twice she meant to cast a safe vote. She changed her style from random and quirky to reasonable and helpful in one day. She also came across as quite insecure all the time. This may be the sign of an innocent poking left and right, it could also be the sign of a wolf not sure what to do with herself.
Now Tom posts quite a lot Day 2, including some reasons to kill Formendacil (an innocent helping out or a wolf revealing as much as he can without revealing too much? Sometimes the best strategy for a wolf is to be as honest as possible). At first, he expresses no to little suspicion of Caran. Then he admits to being slightly swayed by the amount of suspicion she’s getting, especially because of Morm’s analysis. But then, he is also suspicious of morm himself, with the style change theory and all.
He then provides us with a long analysis of Saucy’s behaviour. This clears SpM for him, though he reminds us to keep watchful if Saucy is indeed trying to take control.
He continues with more suspicion of Mormegil. Then he abandons that theory again, trusting Saucy’s judgment, and will probably be voting for Caran or Spawn.
Only he does not. He votes for Mormegil as the quiet wolf. Well, this seems to me an extremely flip floppy Day and even though he first states we need be mindful to not let Saucy take over, he is following him. It could be a great strategy for a wolf: get into the good books of someone as Saucy –knowing that he were innocent- without voting for the major lynching candidate Caranlondien, who is also innocent. Though he has been helpful, I will be keeping a close eye on him. This is mostly because I think Mormegil is innocent (he has fooled me before, mind you) so not sure whether it holds for the rest of you.
# 3
Littlemanpoet is a wolf.
And he could with right be called a bold one. Poor man is suffering from werewolf weariness (that some kind of disease that comes from being fanged for extended periods of time?). Anyway, the first Day his contributions can be mostly disregarded. He does vote for Formendacil, who is to be Night two’s kill, which may be interpreted as a double bluff. That’s not above or beneath Elempi, of course.
Day 2 he votes for Caranlondien and Spawn (both innocent) in rapid succession. Now Spawn did find this rather suspicious and I tend to agree. I also say it’s reckless. Post #163 he still stands firmly by his vote for Spawn, but then follows #213, giving birth to a rather astonishing bandwagon against SpM. Now I must say that –as is evident in my voting post for Caran yesterDay- I was starting to get the same concerns about SpM being possibly wolvish and Elempi’s post did strike me as well… not insensible.
If Elempi is wolvish, he is, as I said, extremely bold. Now considering werewolf weariness, this seems actually quite logical. If you are weary, tis quite fun to create a few risks for yourself, or try something new. On the other hand, I am just not sure whether Elempi would really be that flip floppy aggressive.
Also, if Elempi is a wolf, Mith is definitely not one. The other way around the same.
Final theory # 4
Mithalwen is a wolf.
Now I quite strongly get the feeling Mith may be a wolf, though Mormegil says to trust his judgement in that she is innocent.
Let’s see for ourselves, shall we?
Now Mith has real life issues going on, so it makes sense her contribution is a little lower and more erratic than expected. However, it’s not about quantity or quality really, it’s about what she does. Day One the only things worth mentioning seem: she defends SpM quite strongly, believing his voters to be quite suspicious. She votes semi-randomly for Fea, because she cannot read her.
Day 2 she comments more on Fea, mostly finding her innocent because of the decided lack of breath-taking stunts going on. (
Now I don’t think Fea is being careful at all, but she’s currently not the topic of discussion).
Mith here points out that Sauce would be dead if she were a wolf. Knowing Mith, I may be inclined to believe this statement.
She finds Tom and Lommy slightly suspicious and Durelin and Caranlondien much more so. She votes for the latter. However, after Elempi’s post, she makes quite a remarkable U-turn and changes her vote to SpM, who previously was rather on the innocent end of her observations. What alarms me even more is that she claims that if LMP is wrong, it will backfire on him, not her. Hmm… Mith seems like herself in one way, but I am not about to underestimate her. I know she’s cleverer than she acts a great deal of the time. She’s not off the list.
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I am running out of time…
Fea I am completely clueless about. Completely.
Celuien… hm… I don’t know. She’s quieter. In fact, I think she may be suffering from WW fatique as well.
Lommy seems rather innocent looking overall.
I do not trust Fin, but find her not the most suspicious either. I have not analysed her yet, though.
Well, I'll be back later. Don't kill anyone in my absence.