The plot for Book IV may indeed be different. However a question of this type is complete supposition, the list of inevitabilities a long one. However I think your trust in Merry remaining is misplaced. His was a strong will, and I doubt that he would have remained, but would have found some way to the Pellanor fields.
"‘I offered you my sword. I do not want to be parted from you like this, Théoden King. And as all my friends have gone to the battle, I should be ashamed to stay behind.’" - Chapter 3 The Muster of Rohan, Book IV
I think he sufficiently stong willed to not be left behind. This was a battle he was determined to face, for he felt that he had not contributed to the war at all. From the same chapter,
"‘I won’t be left behind, to be called for on return!’ said Merry. ‘I won’t be left, I won’t.’ And repeating this over and over again to himself he fell asleep at last in his tent."
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"I am, I fear, a most unsatisfactory person."
- (Letter #124 To Sir Stanley Unwin)
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