[Diamond18]

Okay... operating under the assumption that the Evil Wizard told Nogrod and one other wolf the identity of the three wolves, and that either:

(A) Instructed Nogrod and the other wolf to attack Loki
(B) Instructed Nogrod to attack and the other wolf to defend
(C) Instructed Nogrod to attack and the other wolf to ignore

These aren't the only possibilities, of course. It's possible that even knowing identities, the wolves acted more or less independant of any EW instruction, but this isn't my theory. I'm looking for a way to support or disprove the three options above.

The people who weighed in on Loki/Nogrod one way or the other were:

Kath, Diamond, Firefoot, Celuien, Gurthang, Spawn, Glirdan, Nilp, Jenny, Kitanna, Caran, Cailín, Lommy, Naria, Eomer, Fea, Roa, Lal, Valier, and Zali. (Plus tp and SpM, proven innocent.)

Of these people, those against Loki were:

Diamond, Celuien, Caran, Fea, Lal, Valier, Kitanna, Zali

Those against Nogrod:

Nilp, Naria, Eomer, Lommy, Roa

Which leaves Firefoot (voted Lommy), Gurthang (also Lommy), Spawn (Lhuna), Glirdan (Oddwen), Jenny (SpM), Cailín (Oddwen) -- as talkers but not voters.

People who didn't say a word about it were:

Sleepy, Lhuna, Eonwe, Oddwen, Alcarillo, and Morm.


Assuming option (A) is true:

The most suspicious looking perseon right now, I would say, would be Diamond. That's me. (Duh.) I got on Loki's case early and voted for him first. Celuien seems to be a more subtle Loki-attacker, however, which makes me look askance at her. (Especially since I know I'm innocent, so whoever looks second-worse than me is first in my view.) Fea also is seeming shifty. The others who voted more or less seem to have joined the bandwagon. Then there's Firefoot and Spawn who spoke against Loki but didn't vote -- maybe avoiding getting their hands dirty but still working to shift the village's view.

Assuming option (B) is true:

Then Roa is a wolf and we should lynch her without blinking. Okay, okay, no. It could mean that Naria was an original wolf, instead. Either way, it looks bad for Eomer, indicating he may be the Evil Wizard, joining wolf-Roa in being the Good Cop. All the more reason, too, for him to vote against Nogrod the next Day.

Assuming option (C) is true:

Things are rather a bit murky, since it's harder to tell who among those who either ignored the issue altogether or at least voted another way had any specific reason. A lot of those people barely even posted or weren't around. Morm came out strongly defending Loki on Day 2 -- but that's a day late and a dollar short for mattering any.

Final conclusions:

While I am not altogether impressed with my theory after reviewing Day 1, I'm still putting Celuien and Roa on a must watch closely memo to myself and the whole village. Alas, I'm getting right bloody tired and the thought of now combing over posts from Day 2 to be downright suicide inducing.