[The Saucepan Man]

This is a terrible blow to our village, and my thoughts are with Diamond18 and her kin. A sad loss indeed. And now, we have to do our best to find the culprits, as the Watchers have bade us do. I am sorry that I have not been able to contribute so far, but my duties at the tavern have kept me busy.

I bid you all come to the Salty Seal, where we may discuss these things in comfort and with a drink to strengthen our spirits. I shall not charge thee on a day such as this (provided you do not seek to take advantage).

Were I to let petty vengeances guide my thoughts, I would be looking towards mormegil and Eomer. Mormegil has always thought his daughter too good for a lowly innkeeper such as me and has never approved of the match. And Eomer, the rogue, is presumptious enough to court my beloved daugher, Kitanna, without first seeking my permission.

Yet it is not village affairs that have guided the Evil Wizard’s hand, I am sure, but cold, hard logic. And that is what I intend to use to counter him (or her).

As others have intimated, we must bear in mind that these beasts were not randomly chosen, as in the tales of old, but hand selected by the Evil Wizard. Were I him, I would not have chosen those who, by virtue of their reputation or ancestry, were likely to be the subject of a Seerish dream on the first Night or who are likely targets for a lynching on the first Day. On this basis, a number of villagers can, I think,be discounted as unlikely choices by the Evil Wizard.

And, much as I would like to see the back of him for his antagonistic behaviour and insufferable gloating, I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard. His reputation, even before this Day, makes him a quite likely candidate for lynching. Then again, one motive for claiming to be the de-Werewolved villager would be to divert attention from himself. If that was his intention, then it has backfired. Nevertheless, I will disegard him for today, based on my reasoning above.

Were I the Evil Wizard, I would have chosen from the following villagers:

Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Celuien, Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia or Naria, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Firefoot, Diamond and Gurthang.

That doesn’t narrow things down as much as I would like. However, I suspect that the Evil Wizard, if applying his or her mind, will have selected villagers with different styles. Based on my knowledge of them, and the tales of their ancestors’ exploits, I would divide them as follows, and assume that the Evil Wizard would select one Wolf from each grouping:

1 of Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien or Celuien
1 of Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia or Naria, Oddwen, or Alcarillo
1 of Roa, Firefoot, Diamond or Gurthang

One Wolf, we know, was turned back, which paradoxically makes things more difficult, even if my reasoning is on course (and there’s no guarantee that it is, or that the Evil Wizard would think like me).

And of course, that does not help us find the Evil Wizard and I agree that anything that we can do to unmask him (or her) will be worthwhile. More thoughts on that anon.