[Lalaith]

I know, Jenny, must have been very annoying...
Anyway, this is my final installment, phew.

Night three
Ang:I missed the climax of this drama, Glirdan's arrival. Even with spawn unmasked, I'm unwilling to trust him! I was so convinced my Mith's revelation-could all that Iliad stuff be a mere ruse...? What if Glirdan's the final duck? We should test him by not guarding him, perhaps...
Thank God we both stayed quiet. You're the village's most important asset right now and I don't think the duck has a clue who you are.
Lal: I know what you mean about the Glirdan/Mith thing. I just instinctively was more inclined to trust her.
Ang: I now think Glirdan can't be a duck-it's a move that leads to inevitable long term defeat if he is. But he could be a Goose who tried things out and got lucky-seeing Spawn as a likely duck for the same reasons you did.
I came round to your view by the way. Before Glirdan's arrival, I'd left with my beak trained not on morm but Spawn... I think you should call Glirdan's bluff and guard Mith at the moment.
Lal: I'm not convinced - yet - about protecting Mith. I'll throw my own plan at you later, for you to pick holes in. Incidently, what about this 'hidden aspect' Diamond mentioned, have you given that any thought? Don't tell me, you're really a duck...

Lalaith:
Possible Glirdan scenarios:
1. Glirdan is a goose. But WHY then in the name of all that is quacky would he offer up a duck for lynching? He wants the ducks to win. And he couldn't have known for sure that spawn was a duck.
2. Glirdan is a duck. If so, he will be unmasked either today or tomorrow, and lose. (Partly because if he survives more than two nights he is clearly a duck)
3. Glirdan is an owl. In which case we need to find the last duck.
Why Glirdan might be the goose/duck:
post 256 where the scenarios seem badly thought out.
Why Glirdan might be the owl:
because the other options make little or no sense.


Possible Mith scenarios
1. Mith is a goose. In which case Glirdan is the owl, Glirdan scenario 3, and we don't know who the duck is, but Glirdan might dream him/her tonight.
2. Mith is a duck. In which case, ditto as Glirdan scenario 2.
3. Mith is the owl. In which case Glirdan must be the duck because it is so unlikely that he is the goose (vid. Glirdan scenario one)

There is also the option that Mith is a Goose and Glirdan a duck. In which case we will also find this out in the next two days, and win.

So, if Mith is the owl, we do not need to protect her because we know anyway that Glirdan is the duck.
But if Glirdan is the owl, we DO need to protect him as Mith is probably the Goose and we still don't know who the duck is.

Now, shoot away, Papageno.

PS I looked on Saucie's Grimoire and found that the Ranger has had a zero survival rate.
Ang: That's because they tend to reveal themselves. Make sure you don't and you might yet break the mould. Besides, they've survived in WWJ games, I think. Take heart.

Now. Glirdan. As I say, I really cannot see him as a Duck anymore. Why would a Duck act as he has done? There's no way they could win.
I dismiss the idea of both being guilty. Surely the real Owl would have come forward? Unless they're being seriously canny and longtermish.
Mith seemed so blasted genuine. Maybe Goose Glirdan hoped to have a shot at assassinating a duck many of us suspected as such and so getting cred; effectively sealing Mith's doom; and giving the last wolf, about whom he had no clue, a chance at Kurusing it to the end.
Odd coincidence that both Owls declare Sauce innocent...a very plausible choice of dream by Glirdan, eh, particularly as it required little rejigging from Mith's mindset.
If Glirdan is the goose, remember the last duck won't himself know who is the real Owl.
Note Glirdan didn't apparently take in that roles are hidden at death-what does that say about his strategy?
Is there some, shudder, Third Way of compromise we could take? I don't really know who to hunt-my suspects have been shot to pieces and I fear my morm case was shoddy.

Lalaith: As for hunting, do you think you're a likely kill-candidate? I'm pretty sure either Glirdy or Mith, whichever is the real McCoy, are for the chop tonight.
I'm just still not convinced about Goose Glirdy. Getting a seer eaten is just not enough payback for losing a wolf. I could have protected Mith toNight but she'd have been eaten tomorrow anyway.
If Goose-Glirdy had been wrong about spawn, he would have been revealed as a fraud and lynched tomorrow, and Mith would still have been protected tonight.
It would have been too silly to say it, unless he was sure and the only way he could be sure was if he was a duck or owl.
Oh dear. I wish you weren't so convinced about Mith's genuineness.
And what about Diamond's hidden agenda, which I mentioned earlier today?
Ang: I agree, I'm not that likely a candidate, but I need to keep up appearances-and there is the fact that the duck knows I'm unguarded. And could kill two innocents. I'd say after the two Owls I'm one of the more possible targets.
Diamond's secret won't affect the the game- it'll be an anagram or a literary reference or some similar easter egg.
You'd best protect Glirdan if you feel he's the more likely. In any case thanks to spawn's demise it's no catastrophe. I'll analyse to find a suitable hawk victim.

Lalaith: Well, leave me a message to let me know who you hunt.
I don't know, maybe Diamond's secret is that there are two owls!!
Ang: I will not hunt morm-that's what the last duck expects me to do.
I am literally shooting in the dark when I choose Valier. I have had a little suspicion of her for a long time and I increasingly trust to marginal, out of the way, "winging" Hawking. I did after all pick Spawn last night before the two Owls controversy...
So...let's hope.

After both Nightingale and Hawk had died, their ghosts resumed some correspondence:

Lal: Oh, I was SO cross on Saturday morning.
You did exactly the right thing, I suspected you might be killed, and was hoping you would make Glirdan your hunt. I think we can assume Morm is innocent, don't you?
That fourth wereduck, grrr...and there I was, so pleased with my save...
Ang: At least thanks to my deception about Philomela Mith got an extra dream. I was pleased with that. Now we can have fun watching their efforts to find the Nightingale!
I suspect Valier again. But I had to remove Glirdan and his chaos, goose or duck.
It is sad about your save, but you did do well nonetheless. I wonder how on earth they spotted you...
Lal: Yes, the Philomela subterfuge was excellent, well done.
You know, I wonder if Mith turns out to be the last duck after all...the existence of an extra duck would make a false seer move more sensible.
Otherwise I would say Valier or Noggie. He changed so abruptly in style after day one...
If I were still in the village I would insist Diamond answer the following questions:
1. Did the ducks know that their first kill would join them, beforehand?
2. Was the cursed villager pre-selected and the ducks got very lucky, or would any first duck kill become a duck?

A day or two later…

Lalaith: I can't believe they killed Morm, the fools!
Who do you think the final duck is? I'm starting to wonder about Saucie...I fear we've lost. What do you think?
Ang: I'm sure it's Nogrod. He encouraged the nonsensical Kath/morm duel and pretended to trust Mith while she lived only to cast doubt on her after her demise, when her Owlishness was painfully obvious.
I trust Saucie and I think he's onto him. At one point he asked morm and Kath to consider that they might both be innocent...they ignored him...
But I'm confident Saucie will swing Kath-for Nogrod will surely kill Valier-and they'll unmask the final Duck, I hope.
Lal: I hope so. But I can't understand why Saucie, whose intellect I have the greatest respect for, didn't light on the obvious point (made by Mith before her death) that morm would never have risked killing you. Which makes me suspect him.
But you're right, Noggie is pretty suspicious too.
And the absence of Cailin/not Cailin is sorely felt.
Oh well, we shall see...