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What if the EW curses one ordo, while the GW uncurses a wolf, and a gifted is killed?
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If that happened, the numbers would indicate that the other possibility is that the EW un-gifted someone, the GW scried an Ordo (with all three gifted roles already being filled), and the wolves killed an Ordo (or that the EW scried the GW, which is a rare one time occurence).
But in that situation, wouldn't the un-gifted come forward? He might as well. He is likely to be a pawn of the Wizards over the next couple of days, sure to be killed, re-gifted, cursed, or fought over in a wizard battle (or even if not, he will surely fear it, and the Wizards will consider it).
And also, the GW could tell everyone what had happened. As I predicted earlier, I believe it is likely that the GW will reveal him/herself by the fourth day, partially to clear up situations such as this.
If the number of Gifteds went down and nothing else, I personally would assume that the situation you described was what happened, unless someone told me different. And that's not even taking into account the possibility of, like you suggested, the uncursed Wolf coming forward.
Of course, you are completely right that there is another possibility (or two) in this situation and that my in-game assumptions may be wrong, but generally the tally will give enough information to get by, and the times it doesn't- the situation can be quickly rectified by an uncursed or de-gifted coming forward, or even the GW himself.
That's why I don't mind a tally only system. We are able to come up with certain situations that could lead to confusion, but they won't happen all the time, they can be resolved by others (especially the GW), and will only add a moderate amount of confusion, as opposed to if
lmp didn't tell us anything and we weren't sure if we had all our gifteds and only two wolves, or if a gifted had just been killed during the night, another un-gifted, and another lynched during the day, and there were ten wolves running around. A tally is
much better than nothing, I think.
(But, as I said before, once the normal WW game starts we should follow the usual rules and reveal dying roles)