[The Saucepan Man]

Ang, I have been analysing. Mith's declaration of your innocence confirms what I had previously thought, so does not change my musings below.

On the double-Owl possibility, it would explain a few things, but I just don’t see it as being likely, given the Diamoddess’s original explanation.

My “birdlime” plan, Ang, was put with genuine intention. At that time, I thought it fairly likely that the Owl had been targeted by the Ducks and protected by the Nightingale the previous Night and so was trying to find a way of gaining the Owl’s knowledge before he or she was killed the next Night. Mormegil pointed out that the Nightingale might be identified by the Ducks from the Hawk’s revelation, but I was rather relying on the Nightingale and the Hawk to use their discretion in this regard. It is quite possible that they have been at pains to avoid any apparent connection. In any event, it is entirely superfluous now.

Being an Orc of little brain, I failed completely to understand Mith’s rhyme (as I failed to appreciate her Athena allusions) and so wouldn’t mind an explanation at some point.

But, for now, on to more pressing matters.

Here’s yesterday’s voting:

1. Spawn for morm (morm-1)
2. Ang for morm (morm-2)
3. Mith for Roa (morm-2, Roa-1)
4. Cailin for morm (morm-3, Roa-1)
5. Sleepy for Kath (morm-3, Roa-1, Kath-1)
6. Lote for Roa (morm-3, Roa-2, Kath-1)
7. Glirdan for spawn (morm-3, Roa-2, Kath-1, spawn-1)
8. Mormegil for spawn (morm-3, Roa-2, Kath-1, spawn-2)
9. Kath for morm (morm-4, Roa-2, Kath-1, spawn-2)
10. Lalaith for Roa (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-2)
11. Roa for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-3)
12. Nogrod for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-4)
13. Valier for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-5)
14. Jenny for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-6)
15. SpM for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-7)

Did not vote: Elu

All votes came after Mith’s revealtion. Glirdan’s revelation was followed immediately by his vote for spawn. Interesting that Kath chose not to go along with Glirdan’s claim and voted for mormegil. If morm is innocent, perhaps she’s the last Duck. But I happen to find morm very suspicious. And, in Kath’s position, I can see myself as having done the same.

I find mormegil’s reactions to the revelations very interesting. Before Glirdan came out, he said:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Mith I knew you weren't a Duck and I can see your need in coming out...knowing you as I do

He then practically begged Mith not to dream of him:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Now if I survive the day, it seems unlikely, I implore you to trust me and not dream of me. It will avail you little. I am neither the goose nor a duck.

And then, in the same post:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Again Mith, trust me, there is no need to waste your dream on me.

This I found very suspicious at the time, but the implications of which were rather superseded by subsequent events.

Having said that he knew Mith was not a Duck, morm then seemed to accept Glirdan’s claim by voting for spawn (although he did say that he was not fully convinced). A bold move, if he’s a Duck, but perhaps a case of desperate times calling for desperate measures. In any event, having accepted Mith’s claim wholeheartedly, he then goes along with Glirdan’s claim. That looks strange to me. But perhaps he knew that spawn was the Duck (because he’s one himself), correctly assessed that most who had not yet voted would accept Glirdan’s claim and vote for her, and wanted to be seen as against her himself rather than protecting her. A case of making the best of a bad situation for him, a bad situation into which his crony had unwittingly got him, if Glirdan is the Goose.

Today, he initially raised the prospect of voting for Mith. Convenient, if she is the Owl and Glirdan the Goose (as I suspect is the case). But also bad advice. As I said earlier, if we lynch either Glirdan or Mith today we will be none the wiser tomorrow and, quite possibly, an Owl down. Then, when village opinion seems to be turning against Glirdan and for Mithalwen, he switches again and finds Glirdan to be suspicious. Hedging his bets? Frankly, all this flip-flopping is out of character for morm and it just makes me all the more nervous of him.

Spawn’s vote for morm yesterday does speak in his favour, though. Although it was the first and she was not to know that he would become such a prime suspect. And neither was she to know that she would later be “revealed” as a Duck. It does not clear him by any means.

As for JennyHallu, I am concerned by her eagerness to accept Glirdan’s claim and to see suspicion in Mith’s behaviour (as I said yesterday, Owlish behavious can look very Duckish at times). She was the one, effectively, who put the final nail in spawn’s coffin. If, however, she is a Duck, she could hardly have come out at that stage and voted for anyone else. There was a lot of pressure on her to vote for spawn and it would have looked very strange had she not done so and spawn was then lynched and proved to be a Duck.

I also find the certainty with which she voted rather alarming:

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

[plus signs removed] Dancing Duck of Ungoliant (Uh-oh...Now my brain has called up the song "Disco Duck". She's got to be evil if she's got that stuck in my head.)

If she’s a Duck herself, she knew that spawn was too. I always find this kind of “definitive” voting suspicious.

The other two that concern me at the moment are Valier and Lote22. Although I had thought them probably innocent for their votes for Nilp, they too were swiftly convinced by Glirdan’s claim. And both have stood by that today, which would be in a Duck’s interest if (as I believe) Mith is the Owl and Glirdan the Goose.

So, my own version of Ang’s list:

Anguirel-Innocent
Mithalwen-most likely the Owl
Saucepan Man-Innocent
Mormegil-Unknown; extremely suspicious
Valier-Unknown; suspicious
Nogrod-Innocent
Kath-Unknown; slightly suspicious (more so if morm is innocent)
Cailín-Unknown; I trust her for now
Glirdan-most likely the Goose
Lote22-Unknown; suspicious
JennyHallu-Unknown; extremely suspicious

I will be back later. Unless things change dramatically (and that seems fairly likely in this village ), I will probably be voting for either morm or Jenny.