[Nogrod]

I guess it's day already. And I'm off to sleep. But as Farael announced the "result" of the night early, I have had time to see to my first post. I'll be back somewhat later...

So thank’s Farael for revealing the situation ahead of time - and letting me to sleep!

And what news!!!

Great work ranger, just stupendous!

I must admit, that Zali is looking worse and worse every day she stays alive (so sad to say Zali, if you’re an innocent). It might just be the orc-plan – now backfiring really badly. Today, surely a thing to discuss – and the possible real ranger should start to think her position. Ratio now 6:2, so maybe not today, or then yes. We should look at this one closely today.

Secondly: I feel terribly bad about yesterday, giving the decisive vote to lynch Findëasëa. She really played well! But before I start sprinkling ashes over my head, I would like you to consider a couple of things about Roa. For I’m – unhappily – inclined to believe, that we had two innocents in the deathrow yesterday, and so whichever way I would have voted, would have ended in a disaster like this.

I agree with the many of you, that Roa can be seen as suspicious. We all can be seen (my Devil’s advocate –thing should show it). I’ve had my own suspicions of her as well – and I am not wholly conviced about my thoughts, but just that is the reason, why you others should evaluate them too. Roa is a resourceful player, and is a great asset, if innocent. I have mainly two things to believe her innocent (they are kind of intertwined, the first supporting the other – and in that way, the other giving a small boost of credibility to the first one).

Roa innocent?

The first reason.
Look at the ending of DAY1. After famously calling Sleepy a dork, she starts the thing I have thought over and over again.

So after Diamond came out with her quite peppery – and so loveble – defence, there was the following exchange between me and Roa:

Nogrod #73 11.39PM GMT
Diamond!

It's so nice to see you back as your usual self! My suspicions are dropped immediately... for the time being, of course.

Roa #74 11.42PM GMT
She may not last the day Nogrod. I believe she's in the lead for votes.

And there are three minutes between these posts.

Then just four minutes later, Roa updates the voting list (Diamond and Glirdan both having three votes), and says under it (#76):

Diamond reached 3 first, so she's currently the one slated for death.

Three minutes from the last comes the following Roa #79 11.49PM GMT

With 10 minutes left in the day, Nogrod had better get his vote in.

See the following fact: only people who had voted already + me (not-voted yet), had been carrying the discussion for over an hour already. It was only ten minutes to go, and only one non-voter around (me), and Diamond going to be lynched with drawn votes (because of the “first to get the highest”-rule)

So how does this look to you (especially #79)? To me, it looks like someone, who is genuinely worried about Diamond’s future. All Roa’s posts are sent within 7 minutes.

And if she was “genuinely” (based on hunch etc.) worried about Diamond – she isn’t an orc (as Diamond was an ordo). I know, that Roa can be quite crafty and careful player, but this seems to me just too good – as a cover-operation... (and if no-one else has noticed this but me, then it would clearly have been postured in vain...)

The second reason.
Jenny’s list. I have been quite convinced from the moment Jenny wrote that “Goodbye cruel world – and thank’s for all the fish” –letter, that she wasn’t as careful as she might have been. I know, she can be quite jumpy at certain situations. Maybe the posts following the first one were her attempts to repair what she had fumbled already? All the confusion-making stuff as some kind of repentance? Trying to make right what she had already kind of destroyed in a panicky / sentimental rage?

Then the list of dangerous players would be the list of innocents: Spawn, Diamond, me and Roa (three of those already shown).

To add to this speculation, I have been very thoughtful about that vote on Grendelien, and the add on about the

joyful friendship we've been developing.

She also accuses Zali quite openly of betraying her – and Zali is alive still – to all our wonder...

So it might also be, that we are not looking for a wolf among people like Celuien or Roa, but have Zali and Grendelien?

I don’t know. Sounds a bit too simplisistic, but somewhat believable: the pieces fit together, at least. I mean Zali’s living and Roa’s innocence both are kind of explained by Jenny’s list, as it coincides with both.

See to them yourselves, and bring forward points for and against my interpretation..