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Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife
I'm curious to know how you can narrow the list down so far. There have only been four nights, therefore only four dreams. One of those was of an Orc, so that leaves only 3 dreams, another was of Sleepy, so that's 2 to reveal known innocents. One was just the previous night, and the dreamer may not have arrived yet, so you really only have one to go on, from the first day. In regular games, dreams go directly to the seer, and even then, if the seer dies, we can't always interpret their posts properly. If a seer thinks someone is innocent, that doesn't mean they dreamt of them. Likewise, if a seer thinks someone is suspicious, it doesn't make them guilty. So, how, in this game, when the dreams don't necessarily go to the Shaman, are you able to narrow the list so far down, just by figuring out who the Shaman is?
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If the person I believe to be the Shaman really is (although I'm starting to doubt this more and more based on what another villager has been saying), I found posts by this person earlier on that could be interpreted as a revealed dream, thus supporting (but not proving) the innocence of a villager. I cannot go any further about how the other villagers could be tied in to the possible innocence of that villager, because it would be giving too much away to the orcs, and like I stated before, the protection of our Shaman is crucial.
However, I know that the possibility of my being wrong is high. None of us will know who the Shaman is unless revealed, and I'd rather not have that happen...unless later in the game the Shaman has not been killed and knows the identity of an orc. I'm just putting this out there, off to the side just in case the Shaman is revealed. Please don't get me wrong, I know that even if the person I believe to be the Shaman really is, this doesn't prove the innocence of some other villagers...but I believe it could highly support their innocence.
And just to be clear, I wouldn't think to use this theory to narrow down suspects *now,* because that would be very foolish, considering we don't even know who the Shaman is, and my thought of the possible Shaman could be very, very wrong.
I must clear up some things that Sleepy brought to my attention:
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Originally Posted by Sleepy
I've trusted Nogrod since before he had the dream I find this an invalid point. He had no need to develop a bond with me since there already is one, at most posting that just weakened the bond rather than strengthened it and now with Diamond's death I assure you its been severed completely.
And what do you meant 'get me next'? Do you mean Nogrod is trying to get everyone to like him so that nobody'll vote for him? Pardon me but I find this to be an absurd theory. It would take someone very charismatic or really desperate to try something like that, no offence to Nogrod but as I said in ME Idol, you lack the X-Factor. And with the current confusion I'd say its not the orcs who are desperate. Don't get me wrong, Nogrod can put up a convincing arguement but when it comes to making friends of everyone in the village? Is that even plausible?
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Obviously Nogrod would not be able to win over the trust of every innocent villager, if he were an orc, but I do not find it absurd to think that he would want to win the trust of some innocents. At the time, I found him extremely suspicious, suspicious to the point that I could not shake it from my mind that day. My suspicions have dwindled considerably based on his reasoning and his seemingly sincere objective to help the village. Could he be a very good liar? The chance is very likely, and should not be discarded. But right now, he is seeming less suspicious to me, personally.
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Originally Posted by Sleepy
Post #313 she states shes reluctant to start a band-wagon. Why? Is it because she a band-wagonning an innocent would draw the wrong attention and she knows that Nogrod is an innocent? (Due to her being an orc) Also, in the post she quoted, Nogrod was suggesting that Caran played a part in it. Could this be one orc coming to the aid of the other?
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I did not want to start a bandwagon because I knew there is a possibility that Nogrod could be innocent. I certainly would not want to start a bandwagon on an unknown because the possibility of innocence would be forever in my mind...and if he were innocent, I would feel like I mislead my fellow villagers at a time when they could have focused their attention on hunting an orc.
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Originally Posted by Sleepy
In the same post she says the she wouldn't want people to vote someone based on her reasons. I just find it weird that someone would openly be so unsure of themselves. At this stage, to me at least, it looked as if she wouldn't vote Nogrod but then later (Post #339) she does vote for Nogrod and says she doubts he'll get lynched. Now she could have just jumped onto the Kitanna band-wagon but she chose to go the safe way and vote Nogrod.
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I am being openly unsure of myself so that I can be as honest as possible. I am unsure of most villagers, because the arguments supporting their guilt or verifying their innocence are both very strong. I dislike making definite statements, unless 100% sure, because I find it necessary to keep all options open.
Like I stated above, I voted for Nogrod because I found him most suspicious at the time, and found more arguments either strongly supporting his guilt or stongly supporting his innocence. I went with my gut feeling and voted for him because I thought the signs of guilt overrode the signs of innocence.
And why would I jump on the Kitanna bandwagon when I did not find her as suspicious as Nogrod that day?