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Roa:
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Originally Posted by Fin
I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.
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Your reasoning here is critically flawed. If you look at the bolded sections, you have completely contradicted yourself. First, you say that it's clever, then you say it's desperate, then you fail to take into account one very large possibility: Let me explain:
Because of how the dreams work, anyone, including an orc, can recieve a dream. It's not that I think Nogrod is lying about having a dream of an innocent Sleepy. I do not, however, think that means he can't be an orc. The move is far from desperate, and is infact quite a clever one, if it is true. You have continually ignored this possibilty. This looks a great deal like one orc trying to cover for another, and I find it disturbing.
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I did not contradict myself. I said it could be a clever ploy outside of the context of the situation that occurred the night before. When I categorize his actions as being desperate I was explaining that in the context of the suspicion that he fell under the evening before, it would be a desperate move to try to win the trust of the other villagers in this very transparent way. This does not seem to suit his style.
I completely understand that he could be an orc that had a dream about sleepy. That
is exactly what I am taking into account in the post that you commented on. I am saying that I do not think that it would be likely that he is an orc trying to pass as an innocent by revealing the dream. It would be a transparent act.