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I was planning on analyzing other villagers’ posts, but Nogrod’s recent suspicion of me came as a surprise. I was thinking for some time about why he would outwardly suspect me, and I came up with two reasons:
1)Nogrod is an ordo, truthfully revealed the dream he received about Sleepy, and sincerely believes that I am an orc.
2)Nogrod is an orc, truthfully revealed the dream about Sleepy, and believes me to be the Shaman or Ranger. Now, suppose I were lynched and you all found out that I am innocent, Nogrod would appear suspicious. However, he is smart, so why would he put himself in such a suspicious position? I was thinking about this, and it occurred to me that Nogrod knows that we think him smart, so he knows that we would think “why would Nogrod put himself in that position if he were an orc? That’s not smart.” The villagers may think him unlikely of doing such a thing, and he would therefore look less suspicious in the villagers’ eyes.
Then I thought about why Nogrod would use the early post of an innocent villager (Spawn) as backup to accuse me of being an orc. At that point, all posted suspicions had little bases to support the suspicions. Once again, I believe that since Nogrod knows we think he is smart, upon finding out I was innocent the villagers would not bind him to this reason for accusing me because they might find it too weak a reason for an orc to use, thus finding Nogrod to be innocent.
Right now Nogrod seems the most suspicious to me. It is possible that he is an ordo, but my suspicions tell me he could very well be an orc. I realize that this defensive post on my part, and offense against Nogrod appears suspicious, especially if Nogrod does turn out to be innocent. However, I currently believe him to be an orc. I will not vote until later, just in case anything comes up that reveals Nogrod's identity.
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