Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Findëasëa
I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.
|
I have been thinking the same things, with the exception that the dream really did fall into the hands of Nogrod. I have come up with three possibilities, all of which coincide with
Findeasea's post. But please, correct me if any of you find error in my reasons.
Assuming that Nogrod really did receive the dream (which I believe he did, because, as Findeasea stated, it would be too risky for him to lie about receiving the dream), and the dream really was about Sleepy (considering Sleepy's recent posts against Jenny's orcish outbursts could make him seem entirely innocent or entirely guilty, I believe the Shaman did chose Sleepy to dream about) here are some possibilities I came up with:
1) both Nogrod and Sleepy are wereorcs. I don't thnk that Nogrod would lie about Sleepy's nature, because it would just be too risky for them both. If we ever lynched one of them, or if an ordo received a dream about either, both would be done for. They may have done this, hoping that they would kill the Shaman before an ordo receives a dream about them, but it just seems too risky. That may be a risk they are willing to take, but I find it highly unprobable.
2) Nogrod is an orc, and Sleepy is an ordo. If the shaman did choose Sleepy, and the dream happened to fall into the hands of Nogrod, Nogrod could have truthfully revealed that Sleepy is an ordo. This way, if Sleepy were later killed by the remaining wereorcs or lynched and his elfish identity revealed, this would give us reason to believe that Nogrod is an ordo.
3) Both Nogrod and Sleepy are ordos. This seems fairly likely, and I will read over Nogrod's reasons for revealing the dream again in the morning.
As Findeasea stated, there is a chance that Nogrod did not receive the dream and is lying about Sleepy's identity, but I agree that this would be even riskier than receiving the dream and lying about Sleepy.
There is also a chance that the dream was not about Sleepy, and Nogrod is just trying to get the Shaman to say something...but by doing this, even though the orcs would know the identity of the shaman, they would be down to 1. I don't think they would risk lowering their numbers to 1 at this point.
So, based on this, I have a feeling that both Nogrod and Sleepy are innocent, or that Nogrod is an orc and Sleepy is innocent. But please add to/correct anything I said, for the reasons that I give are just thoughts!