[Caranlondien]

I decided to analyze Nogrod first, because when I was part-way through writing my last post, he posted some things that made me more suspicious of him (if you go back to my last post, you'll see I put in some thoughts on his post).

Nogrod:

DAY ONE

#2: Suggests dreamers (besides Shaman) reveal their dreams as they happen.

#4: Defends plan, saying it will force the orcs to react rather than act. Also likes Celuien's suggestion that dreamers leave obscure hints, but thinks it might be too difficult then to determine what was a hint and what was not.

#6: Agrees with Roa that the Shaman role is "interesting" in that once the Shaman dies, we won't be scouring their posts for clues (except, of course, for the first dream).

#26: Thinks many players have made a hasty judgement on his dreamer plan. Says there's no way the orcs could benefit from it.

#32: Corrects Spawn, who had said that once a dreamer dies, we will easily be able to tell whom they dreamt of; says we won't know that person had a dream in the first place. Responds to Jenny's comment that revealing known innocents will help the orcs determine who the Shaman is; says it would also limit the scope for the Shaman about who the orcs are, but can't tell which is "heavier". Finally, says his plan is bad for a different reason: if the Shaman chooses mostly experienced players to dream about, we will be eliminating all those experienced players early (since the orcs would kill them).

#38: Agrees with Jenny that "I agree" stuff with no reasoning looks suspicious. Also finds people who say Day 1 is useless suspicious. Divides the villagers who have spoken so far into 3 groups. (Group 1) He thinks Celuien, Roa, Jenny, Spawn, and Caranlondien have been well-reasoned so far. (Group 2) Thinks Grendelien, Glirdan, Kitanna, Findeasea, and Naria have flawed reasoning (or no reasoning at all) in going against his plan. (Group 3) Thinks Diamond and Sleepy are acting suspiciously.

#41: Pretty much restates previous post, saying he won't vote for Group 1, and is willing to give the newbies from Group 2 the benefit of the doubt. Points out that Azaelia and Legolas iS haven't spoken yet.

#51: Vote count

#54: Responds to Roa's question about time zones.

#56: Tells Findeasea to make her vote bold, tells mod he thinks the vote should count anyway.

#58: Apologizes for accidentally changing his vote count in #51.

#60: New vote count. Doubts his suspicions of Diamond and Glirdan, and asks to hear more from Diamond.

#66: Defends his plan against one attack, but then says again that it's bad for other reasons.

#70: Says Sleepy's confession that he has been trying to get himself lynched confuses him and puts those who haven't voted yet in a weird situation. Edits to say cross-posted with Roa, who suggested Sleepy is trying to go for a record for getting lynched Day 1 or Night 1.

#73: Says Diamond's defense of herself (#71) has eased his suspicion of her.

#78: Lists the leading lynching candidates (Diamond, Glirdan, and Sleepy) and seems to briefly analyze each of them, though I can't make out what he's saying exactly about Glirdan. Lists the others who have not yet voted (Grendelien, Zali, Naria, and Legolas iS)

#85: Cross-posts with a bunch of people, and so doesn't realize he's not the only one left to vote; seems to prefer killing Sleepy (who seemed to want to be lynched), but says it would take another person to help him.

#88: Says since Glirdan's fate is already sealed, he might as well give Sleepy his wish and vote for him. (Votes for Sleepy).

#92: Tells Diamond that analyses have often proved useful.

DAY TWO

#99: Rejoices that Ranger staved off the Orcs' attack, but regrets we lynched an innocent yesterday. Says he felt uneasy about the forerunners (Does he mean he felt suspicious of them, or felt uneasy about lynching any of them? Probably the latter.) Warns he has RL stuff going on, won't be around too much toDay.

#101: Cross-posts a tally of votes with Celuien; says he excuses Legolas iS's no-vote as newbie-ness, and Naria's as computer-problems.

#102: Asks Celuien to analyze the Glirdan vote, and he'll do overall suspicions - innocence -claims.

#106: Responds to Roa, who had said she'll analyze Diamond-voters.

#118: Analysis of who people suspect / who they think is innocent

#122: Comments on the massive amount of analysis; wonders why no one analyzed Spawn, who is high on his suspicion list after doing his analysis. Asks some questions about Spawn's objections to his plan.

#127: Says suspicion of Spawn is because he sees her ideas as orc-helping, yet she has somehow not come under suspicion.

#129: Replies to Legolas iS

#141: Says he is toning down his suspicion of Spawn, but still thinks her attack on Roa is odd, and wonders at her suspicions about random voting. Makes a distinction between a "random" gut vote and a truly random (i.e., roll a die) vote.

#148: Worries that the day is wearing on and we have next to no suspects (Which I have to say is concerning me too). Decides to go by confusion-sowing, and lists Spawn and Celuien as two players whose posts have confused him.

#149: Responds to a question Roa asked him (asks what she's asking about)

#162: Responds to Caran's uneasiness, making a good point I hadn't thought of: a bunch of loud orcs might benefit in the short term by having the village kill all the quiet ones, but overall they'd prefer to have quiet people to hide amongst.

My thoughts: In #60, saying that he doubts his suspicions of the two people at that time in the lead for votes puts him in a very safe position if they're both innocent. Whichever one ends up dying, he can say he didn't think they were guilty. However, if they are both innocent, then it's good he doubts his suspicions of them... hmm, you could take this either way. #66 looks oddly defensive of his plan; I mean, he'd already found a flaw in it himself, so why keep defending it from other attacks?

I have a tendency to begin to suspect whomever I analyze, so I want to be cautious, but Nogrod certainly warrants keeping an eye on.

And I just re-checked the thread and added his latest post (#162). It addresses one of my concerns, and makes me less suspicious of him.