The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

littlemanpoet · 03-30-2006, 09:33 PM

Talk about good instincts!

I wish I'd gone back and read Spawn's PMs during the game! ....

LMP:

Well. You and I have survived Day 1. You did better than I. But that's okay. Getting voted for in such a big field may help reveal a few things.

I think we can accept Lal's innocence as likely, given Lhuna's vote for her.

Naturally, I'm suspicious of Gurthang, less so of Eomer now that the day's done. I tend to think that Eomer is being honest with his "master plan", and that I was his guinea pig. Fair enough.

What do you think of Ang? Do you think he's right about Glirdan?

My "tick" plan didn't get me very far. I think a good hard study of Day 1 now that it's complete will reveal much, after which I'll be more ready to discuss about whom to dream. Thoughts?

Spawn:

Cailín's vote, well, she said that she won't be much around on Day 1. When she had to vote, only Lommy, Lalaith and I had posted, and I think she wanted to choose one of us three because voting for someone before s/he has even spoken looks a bit too odd. I'm not sure what to think of her now.

I'm a bit worried of Kath, though. She didn't say much and her vote for Eomer was odd. Tar-a voted for Eomer for the same reasons on Day 1 in the last game, and she was innocent. Is Kath a wolf voting for an innocent/ a wolf with the same reasons hoping that we'd think that she's innocent, too?

A vote for a fellow wolf won't look suspicious to other wolves if it was something that they had agreed on during their Nightly discussions.

No doubt, those two thing are their goals, but actually, if one lover dies, the other lover will die automatically, too. But I think the wolves are ready to lose one of their own in order to find out who of the wolves are trustworthy.

I'm a bit suspicious of Samwise because he seemed somewhat eager to make a case against Cailin accusing that her suspicions weren't reasoned enough, but neither were Samwise's. He then kind of backed off saying that "And yet, I can't help but think that no wolf would be so stupid on day one. Any thoughts?" Also, that 'any thoughts' part seems wolvish because it looks like as though he was trying to find out if it was possible to get rid of her today without looking too questionable.

When I mentioned that, he answered: "Spawn, you have raised the issue that my suspicions of Cailin may have seemed baseless, due to a lack of evidence. So here we go: Posts #5 & #9 between them point the finger at eight- that's right, eight- different individuals. That's over one third of our village randomly accused by this little lady. That's at least a little suspicious, isn't it? Couple this with a very early vote and Cailin makes my list. Not my 'Is a wolf and must be horribly murdered' list, but at least my 'Ooh, that's odd' list."

He sees quite a lot of trouble to say: "Ooh, that's odd." I think he might be a wolf. Besides, I don't trust those who apologise their votes (like Lhuna and Samwise did).

Btw, want to explain Eomer's plan to me? I really didn't get it yet.

About Ang and Glirdan, Lhuna said: "I feel that both Garin and Glirdan are innocent, just completely misled." I believe her. If Glirdan was a wolf, she would probably have voted for Garin to make it sure that Glirdan won't end up lynched. That said, I think TGWBS is innocent, too.

I'm inclined to trust Anguirel for now.

LMP:

I'm not so worried about Kath yet. I find her reasoning to be believable. And actually somewhat agreeable.

Nevertheless, it would be unnecessary for the werewolves to vote for each other so early unless they have a 'grand plan maestro' amongst them.... which is not out of the question. Still, it's one of those things that is the less likely of two options, the other being that the werewolves are unlikely to vote for each other so as not to unnecessarily risk helping to lynch one of their number; besides, they look at the odds of the seers finding them on Night 1 as being rather slim, which it was, and figure that voting for an innocent on Day 1 probably will not do much harm.

I still think the werewolves are too much realists (the position forces this on you, know what I mean?) to risk losing of their number faster than they need to. Granted, one of the werewolves is aiming to lynch the other three, but the success rate of that can't be all that great. It's something to keep an eye on though.

Good points on Samwise.

Saying "thoughts?" doesn't seem wolvish to me, it seems like someone who is admittedly confused and is hoping for some help from fellow innocents. I do it a lot. Hmmmm.... no wonder people wrongly suspect me!....

If Eomer's innocent 1) He thinks I'm probably innocent and I'm his guinea pig and he's trying to see if he can flush out a werewolf trying to vote safely. (2) He thinks I may be a werewolf and I'm his guinea pig and he's trying to see if he can determine who's probably innocent. (3) If he's a werewolf, he knows I'm innocent and is trying to get me lynched. If he's the ordo lover, he (1) & (2) apply, but so does (3) except for him not being a werewolf. Have the Lovers been allowed to communicate before Day 1?

I agree with you on Ang, Glirdan, & Garin.

I have a sixth sense about Gurthang as another werewolf. Let's look through his posts, eh?

Spawn:

Fair enough. It's just my habit to suspect Kath, I guess. If I'm still alive tomorrow, I'll keep an eye on her, though.

Unnecessary, perhaps, but my experience is that wolves just love to be tricky. However, looking at toDay's voting, I don't think that there were wolf on wolf votes.

Another thing is that Samwise went after Cailin because she mentioned eight names. What about Gurthang ? He just agreed with something that Guthang said about TGWBS. Perhaps they're both wolves...

Samwise's way to say it seemed similar to Aiwendil's behaviour in last game. Samwise tried his best to make a good case out of a minimal amount of material and then he asks what people think about it. If others would have said that he might be onto something, he could have voted for Cailin and no-one would have found his vote suspicious - even if Cailin would have been lynched and proven innocent.

That's why I think polling fellow villagers is suspicious, because if you're innocent, you can't really trust but yourself, no matter what others say. But if you're a wolf, that's a good way to find out what's regarded as suspicious and what's not.

Okay. I don't know about the Lovers' PMing, though.

I've looked now at Gurthangs posts.

#20, the lover theories.
I think it's a silly idea that the lovers would openly leave clues for each other. That doesn't make sense. Besides, is he trying to make people concentrate on the Lover issue instead of finding the wolves? Hmm...
He also mentiones Lhuna - is this the infamous 'mild suspicion of a fellow wolf' act?

[paranoia]Also, would an innocent be so bold as to hint himself to be a seer, lover and a wolf in one post? A good chance for a wolf to confess his wolvishness without that no-one pays attention.[/paranoia]

#42, TGWBS & Naria
Says maybe we should vote for him and then takes it back.
Kind of snaps at Naria although to me it seems that she didn't even suspect Gurthang when she pointed out that he had already mentioned six suspicious people. Weird.

#96, abandons his old theories
I don't know what to say.

#126, #130, a vote + about tomorrow
I've never seen Gurthang in a WW game at this time. Is he a wolf who wanted to make sure that his or his fellow wolves' fur wasn't in danger of getting skinned?

Possibly worth dreaming of, I think.

LMP:

Yes, I agree that Gurthang is a prime candidate for dreaming; Samwise comes in second for me ... so far ... and that may change come end of Day 2.

I'd like to work out a strategy with you as to what to plan for down the road. At some point the werewolves are probably going to manage to kill one of us. What should the remaining seer do? For how long? etc.

If one of us starts getting enough votes to be lynched, say me, do I go silent as the lamb, or do I say I'm one of the seers and give the village what I know so far?

Back to one of us, you for example, getting killed by werewolves. The longer that doesn't happen, the better obviously. If it happens tonight and....

(1) Gurthang turns out to be a werewolf, do I "come out" with my two werewolves, or not? I'd hate to see such valuable info get wasted.
(2) ....and Gurthang turns out to be innocent, what then?

Day 2 seems awfully early to reveal with only one werewolf known by us; two known and it seems like it might be worth it.

Each Day further in, and the more it seems worth revealing if we have two werewolves to point out.

What do you think we should do, when?

Spawn:

Shall I PM Nilp that we pick Gurthang, then, or do you want to do that? I'm ready to wait till next Night with Samwise. Gurthang seems more influential, so it's better to make sure what he is first.

Strategy, well, if it's certain that one of us is a goner, the other one should probably vote with the majority. It may look incriminating to other villagers, but the wolves might be fooled. In that case, whichever of us is going to get lynched should reveal all we know.

If it looks like you're in danger of getting lynched tomorrow, I won't probably defend you, right? I don't know if silence is the best defense... Luckily we can PM during Day, too.

If one of us gets killed by the wolves toNight... that's a tough one. I certainly hope it won't happen, but if Gurthang is a wolf, maybe it would be best for the remaining Seer then leave some obvious clues of our dreams and hope that the wolves will miss them. If Gurthang's innocent, maybe it's best to mildly hint to his innocence and keep your fingers crossed. I don't know. I have a terrible feeling that I won't last long in this game.

It's hard to tell yet when it would be ideal for one of us to step forth. I guess we'll have to see what happens in the next few days, but basically, if a Seer can name two wolves, that's pretty good. Naturally, I'd like to wait as late as possible so that we could give the villagers more information, though.

LMP:

I agree on voting with the majority. Seers need to hide just as much as werewolves do .... it's why they get suspected of being werewolves as like as not.

Yes on revealing all we know if it looks like one of us is going to get lynched. But! ..... speak up before it's too late to get Lhuna lynched so that it can have an effect the same Day.

Don't defend me if I look in danger of getting lynched, and I won't defend you. I fear that I may have tipped our hand a little bit by listing THREE substantive posts by you compared to only one by everybody else. But well, that's the way it looked. And I guess I can use that as my "duh, it's obvious" defense should somebody call me on it.

Okay on leaving clues if the werewolves kill one of us toNight. Except, not obvious. Rather, do it using the "build a case" method. Build the case against Lhuna (& Gurthang if he's lupine), and in mild defense of Lal and others we think are innocent. That way, it looks no more like seer talk than anybody else's, until after we're both gone - at which point they'll be all over it like "white on rice".

That terrible feeling is how I felt when I saw Eomer's vote against me. I think my heart rate doubled in the space of five seconds.

Like, "Game on!"

The longer we can hold off, the better. As long as we're both alive, we can play it cool. As soon as there's only one of us left, it's hint time. When one looks to be lynched, give the goods, which will take some pressure off the one remaining. Sound good?

[/Night 2 PMs]

03-30-2006, 09:33 PM	#803
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	Night Two seer to seer PMs Talk about good instincts! I wish I'd gone back and read Spawn's PMs during the game! .... LMP: Well. You and I have survived Day 1. You did better than I. But that's okay. Getting voted for in such a big field may help reveal a few things. I think we can accept Lal's innocence as likely, given Lhuna's vote for her. Naturally, I'm suspicious of Gurthang, less so of Eomer now that the day's done. I tend to think that Eomer is being honest with his "master plan", and that I was his guinea pig. Fair enough. What do you think of Ang? Do you think he's right about Glirdan? My "tick" plan didn't get me very far. I think a good hard study of Day 1 now that it's complete will reveal much, after which I'll be more ready to discuss about whom to dream. Thoughts? Spawn: Cailín's vote, well, she said that she won't be much around on Day 1. When she had to vote, only Lommy, Lalaith and I had posted, and I think she wanted to choose one of us three because voting for someone before s/he has even spoken looks a bit too odd. I'm not sure what to think of her now. I'm a bit worried of Kath, though. She didn't say much and her vote for Eomer was odd. Tar-a voted for Eomer for the same reasons on Day 1 in the last game, and she was innocent. Is Kath a wolf voting for an innocent/ a wolf with the same reasons hoping that we'd think that she's innocent, too? A vote for a fellow wolf won't look suspicious to other wolves if it was something that they had agreed on during their Nightly discussions. No doubt, those two thing are their goals, but actually, if one lover dies, the other lover will die automatically, too. But I think the wolves are ready to lose one of their own in order to find out who of the wolves are trustworthy. I'm a bit suspicious of Samwise because he seemed somewhat eager to make a case against Cailin accusing that her suspicions weren't reasoned enough, but neither were Samwise's. He then kind of backed off saying that "And yet, I can't help but think that no wolf would be so stupid on day one. Any thoughts?" Also, that 'any thoughts' part seems wolvish because it looks like as though he was trying to find out if it was possible to get rid of her today without looking too questionable. When I mentioned that, he answered: "Spawn, you have raised the issue that my suspicions of Cailin may have seemed baseless, due to a lack of evidence. So here we go: Posts #5 & #9 between them point the finger at eight- that's right, eight- different individuals. That's over one third of our village randomly accused by this little lady. That's at least a little suspicious, isn't it? Couple this with a very early vote and Cailin makes my list. Not my 'Is a wolf and must be horribly murdered' list, but at least my 'Ooh, that's odd' list." He sees quite a lot of trouble to say: "Ooh, that's odd." I think he might be a wolf. Besides, I don't trust those who apologise their votes (like Lhuna and Samwise did). Btw, want to explain Eomer's plan to me? I really didn't get it yet. About Ang and Glirdan, Lhuna said: "I feel that both Garin and Glirdan are innocent, just completely misled." I believe her. If Glirdan was a wolf, she would probably have voted for Garin to make it sure that Glirdan won't end up lynched. That said, I think TGWBS is innocent, too. I'm inclined to trust Anguirel for now. LMP: I'm not so worried about Kath yet. I find her reasoning to be believable. And actually somewhat agreeable. Nevertheless, it would be unnecessary for the werewolves to vote for each other so early unless they have a 'grand plan maestro' amongst them.... which is not out of the question. Still, it's one of those things that is the less likely of two options, the other being that the werewolves are unlikely to vote for each other so as not to unnecessarily risk helping to lynch one of their number; besides, they look at the odds of the seers finding them on Night 1 as being rather slim, which it was, and figure that voting for an innocent on Day 1 probably will not do much harm. I still think the werewolves are too much realists (the position forces this on you, know what I mean?) to risk losing of their number faster than they need to. Granted, one of the werewolves is aiming to lynch the other three, but the success rate of that can't be all that great. It's something to keep an eye on though. Good points on Samwise. Saying "thoughts?" doesn't seem wolvish to me, it seems like someone who is admittedly confused and is hoping for some help from fellow innocents. I do it a lot. Hmmmm.... no wonder people wrongly suspect me!.... If Eomer's innocent 1) He thinks I'm probably innocent and I'm his guinea pig and he's trying to see if he can flush out a werewolf trying to vote safely. (2) He thinks I may be a werewolf and I'm his guinea pig and he's trying to see if he can determine who's probably innocent. (3) If he's a werewolf, he knows I'm innocent and is trying to get me lynched. If he's the ordo lover, he (1) & (2) apply, but so does (3) except for him not being a werewolf. Have the Lovers been allowed to communicate before Day 1? I agree with you on Ang, Glirdan, & Garin. I have a sixth sense about Gurthang as another werewolf. Let's look through his posts, eh? Spawn: Fair enough. It's just my habit to suspect Kath, I guess. If I'm still alive tomorrow, I'll keep an eye on her, though. Unnecessary, perhaps, but my experience is that wolves just love to be tricky. However, looking at toDay's voting, I don't think that there were wolf on wolf votes. Another thing is that Samwise went after Cailin because she mentioned eight names. What about Gurthang ? He just agreed with something that Guthang said about TGWBS. Perhaps they're both wolves... Samwise's way to say it seemed similar to Aiwendil's behaviour in last game. Samwise tried his best to make a good case out of a minimal amount of material and then he asks what people think about it. If others would have said that he might be onto something, he could have voted for Cailin and no-one would have found his vote suspicious - even if Cailin would have been lynched and proven innocent. That's why I think polling fellow villagers is suspicious, because if you're innocent, you can't really trust but yourself, no matter what others say. But if you're a wolf, that's a good way to find out what's regarded as suspicious and what's not. Okay. I don't know about the Lovers' PMing, though. I've looked now at Gurthangs posts. #20, the lover theories. I think it's a silly idea that the lovers would openly leave clues for each other. That doesn't make sense. Besides, is he trying to make people concentrate on the Lover issue instead of finding the wolves? Hmm... He also mentiones Lhuna - is this the infamous 'mild suspicion of a fellow wolf' act? [paranoia]Also, would an innocent be so bold as to hint himself to be a seer, lover and a wolf in one post? A good chance for a wolf to confess his wolvishness without that no-one pays attention.[/paranoia] #42, TGWBS & Naria Says maybe we should vote for him and then takes it back. Kind of snaps at Naria although to me it seems that she didn't even suspect Gurthang when she pointed out that he had already mentioned six suspicious people. Weird. #96, abandons his old theories I don't know what to say. #126, #130, a vote + about tomorrow I've never seen Gurthang in a WW game at this time. Is he a wolf who wanted to make sure that his or his fellow wolves' fur wasn't in danger of getting skinned? Possibly worth dreaming of, I think. LMP: Yes, I agree that Gurthang is a prime candidate for dreaming; Samwise comes in second for me ... so far ... and that may change come end of Day 2. I'd like to work out a strategy with you as to what to plan for down the road. At some point the werewolves are probably going to manage to kill one of us. What should the remaining seer do? For how long? etc. If one of us starts getting enough votes to be lynched, say me, do I go silent as the lamb, or do I say I'm one of the seers and give the village what I know so far? Back to one of us, you for example, getting killed by werewolves. The longer that doesn't happen, the better obviously. If it happens tonight and.... (1) Gurthang turns out to be a werewolf, do I "come out" with my two werewolves, or not? I'd hate to see such valuable info get wasted. (2) ....and Gurthang turns out to be innocent, what then? Day 2 seems awfully early to reveal with only one werewolf known by us; two known and it seems like it might be worth it. Each Day further in, and the more it seems worth revealing if we have two werewolves to point out. What do you think we should do, when? Spawn: Shall I PM Nilp that we pick Gurthang, then, or do you want to do that? I'm ready to wait till next Night with Samwise. Gurthang seems more influential, so it's better to make sure what he is first. Strategy, well, if it's certain that one of us is a goner, the other one should probably vote with the majority. It may look incriminating to other villagers, but the wolves might be fooled. In that case, whichever of us is going to get lynched should reveal all we know. If it looks like you're in danger of getting lynched tomorrow, I won't probably defend you, right? I don't know if silence is the best defense... Luckily we can PM during Day, too. If one of us gets killed by the wolves toNight... that's a tough one. I certainly hope it won't happen, but if Gurthang is a wolf, maybe it would be best for the remaining Seer then leave some obvious clues of our dreams and hope that the wolves will miss them. If Gurthang's innocent, maybe it's best to mildly hint to his innocence and keep your fingers crossed. I don't know. I have a terrible feeling that I won't last long in this game. It's hard to tell yet when it would be ideal for one of us to step forth. I guess we'll have to see what happens in the next few days, but basically, if a Seer can name two wolves, that's pretty good. Naturally, I'd like to wait as late as possible so that we could give the villagers more information, though. LMP: I agree on voting with the majority. Seers need to hide just as much as werewolves do .... it's why they get suspected of being werewolves as like as not. Yes on revealing all we know if it looks like one of us is going to get lynched. But! ..... speak up before it's too late to get Lhuna lynched so that it can have an effect the same Day. Don't defend me if I look in danger of getting lynched, and I won't defend you. I fear that I may have tipped our hand a little bit by listing THREE substantive posts by you compared to only one by everybody else. But well, that's the way it looked. And I guess I can use that as my "duh, it's obvious" defense should somebody call me on it. Okay on leaving clues if the werewolves kill one of us toNight. Except, not obvious. Rather, do it using the "build a case" method. Build the case against Lhuna (& Gurthang if he's lupine), and in mild defense of Lal and others we think are innocent. That way, it looks no more like seer talk than anybody else's, until after we're both gone - at which point they'll be all over it like "white on rice". That terrible feeling is how I felt when I saw Eomer's vote against me. I think my heart rate doubled in the space of five seconds. Like, "Game on!" The longer we can hold off, the better. As long as we're both alive, we can play it cool. As soon as there's only one of us left, it's hint time. When one looks to be lynched, give the goods, which will take some pressure off the one remaining. Sound good? [/Night 2 PMs]