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Old 03-23-2006, 05:29 AM   #576
Lalaith
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Analysis of Celuien's posts

Here goes. This is LONG, but hopefully thorough. Thank goodness Celuien didn’t post that much this game.
First post: in character. Says she thinks the wolves will spot the lovers first, and someone coming out strongly against a villager could be a wolf turning on a traitor. She’ll look out for pairs. Says, in character, that Lommy’s visits are protected by patient confidentiality, and she cannot disclose their content without risking her license. Says she has no “psychic powers, delusions of grandeur or romantic involvements” This comment might have been picked up by wolves as protesting too much?
Second post: more character. Agrees with me about the amount of lunacy in village, points to Anguirel’s delusions. (Again, this might be mistaken as Seerish, she knows Ang’s Seerish claims are delusions?) Valier and Guy are unlikely lovers, lovers are unlikely to hint. Thinks they are both innocent. Is worried about Eomer, but wants to know more about his strategy so won’t vote for him.
Third post: this was her “men only” analysis that I picked up on earlier. Thinks Garin is overly defensive. Then goes through nearly all the other men: Form, Lmp, Glirdan, Farael, Ang, Eonwe, Gurthang, Samwise, and – hmmm… doesn’t find any of them suspicious. This is quite interesting. I actually thought this a rather wolfish post at the time, analysing everyone and not coming to any conclusions. (On the other hand, at this point the Seers could only have dreamt of one person, and the wolves knew this.)
4th: votes for Garin, for his defensiveness and possible backfiring-suicide strategy. Apologises.
Fifth post: nothing important.
Sixth post: says she understood Eomer’s plan. Thinks Ang was mistaken for a Seer by the wolves, also killed because he was smart. Names the following as probable innocents: Guy, LMP, Eomer, spawn, tar-a and Form.
Then says she wants to look more closely at Kath, Farael and Glirdan.
Seventh post: comes back with doubts about Kath’s behaviour but doesn’t know if its enough to vote for her. Was going to look at Glirdan and Farael but is now struck by Eonwe’s odd behaviour.
Eighth post: tabulates vote count. Doesn’t particularly suspect Farael or Glirdan. Doesn’t particularly suspect anyone, doesn’t want to throw away her vote. Will wait to vote to prevent double lynching.
Triple post: Reminds Caranlondien that odd behaviour (this time in the case of Guy) often indicates innocence. Then tells Samwise that the ordo-lover wouldn’t masquerade as seer for fear of wolf-attack. Then wonders if Samwise’s outrage at lmp over the lover question isn’t annoyance at having lover-tactics revealed.
Then after this, comes back and votes for Samwise for his village-polling. Says she may vote for Eonwe tomorrow, and thinks I (Lalaith) bear watching.

Next day. Spawn has been killed by wolves.
Gives three possibilities – that spawn was killed for her correct suspicion of Kath and/or Lhuna, that it was done to even out the male/female ratio, or that Kath and Lhuna were being framed by wolves. Likes double-lynch plan but doesn’t want to do the Guy male-lynching plan. Thinks there is at least one female wolf. Likes lmp’s idea that Farael is just going after his suspect whole-hog (rather than being a lover on the defensive, which was of course the true case).
Comes back, finds Lhuna very suspicious. Notices the “back and forth” between spawn and Lhuna on the first day, thinks that might have triggered a Lhuna dream. But has alternative explanation and so wants to wait ( I assume she was worried that Lhuna might be the other seer. This was something I was worried about too and had already alluded to.)
Then mentions Valier’s “I don’t eat sheep” remark to Guy, but in a neutral way.
Comes back with voting update. Says she will vote for Lhuna unless we are still wanting a double lynch. Then says she’s actually more comfortable about voting for Kath. Also because village needs a Kath vote to co-ordinate double-lynch, and because of not wanting to vote for Lhuna before she’s spoken. Votes for Kath.
YesterDay: praises Eomer. Answers my question about the men-only analysis, says that was just a coincidence. Says she thinks LMP is innocent. Is suspicious of Guy.
Comes back with long breakdown of all Glirdan’s posts.(Post 536, if anyone wants a closer look) Concludes that he is suspicious. Doesn’t think the previous day’s voting tells us much.
Again she protests LMP’s innocence, and also this time Gurthang’s.
Next post, she’s mainly talking to tar-a. Apologises for getting a couple of Glirdan points wrong. Says “support for Caranlondien stands”, don’t quite know what she means by this. Then some discussion about the pros and cons of Guy’s Plan which I don’t really understand. Says she was against the Plan for diverting attention away from the women.
Wonders about Eomer’s suspicion of Glirdan, could he have got three out three right? (We now know the answer is no).
Now thinks Guy is probably innocent..
Next post is a big one, analysing lots of people’s posts. Thinks Guy’s actions the day before were very suspicious. Wonders if Eomer was trying to hide the real Seer. She says in passing that she thinks Naria is innocent. Is puzzled by Guy, thinks he felt guilty the day before and innocent today. (Quite right, I felt the same way) Thinks she will vote for either Guy or Glirdan.
Then moves on to analyse Naria. Repeats that she’s not suspicious.
Then votes for Guy. Apologises. Supports double lynch of Glirdan “if suspicion continues to hold”.
Some joshing with Samwise about double-posting.

Conclusion: If the wolves did think Celuien is the Seer, then LMP, and probably Naria and Gurthang, are innocents. I find little evidence of new wolvish candidates here, however, except possibly Samwise.

Sorry Cailin, haven't had time to read your most recent post. Will do so now.
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