[Celuien]

Sorry for lack of formatting below, but I'm somewhat pressed for time. Hopefully, it's just as good un-bolded.

Glirdan:

DAY 1:

#15: Laments Nilp, says wolves will use double lynching to their advantage. Day one nonsense directed towards Eomer about his being rich and sent to lead the lycans.

Looks pretty much like typical day 1 commentary, though wolf-Kath’s nearly simultaneous denial of double lynching (unless two wolves are identified by dream) is interesting.

#41: Says that he and Ang are the only sane villagers, makes a big deal over being asleep at night to find Nilp dead in the morning in respose to Valier‘s accusation of the unemployed.

Hmm. Sort of an extreme response to Valier, especially since it was directed at both of our jobless residents.

#44: Suggests leaving TGWBS alone

Not a bad idea. I’d agree with it myself.

#45: announcement of cross posting with Gurthang.

#82: Defends TGWBS and Farael. Accueses Garin of hiding behind an innocent tar-a.

#85: Back and forth with Garin. Says that he’s being “being very contradictive and probably confusing” by quoting rules, apologize for said confusion and retracts the statement. Wonders why Garin is being so defensive.

#95: Votes for Garin

#98: Says his vote is not apologetic, as had been suggested by Garin in 97. Makes this odd statement:

Ok, I voted for Garin because I've been meaning to for quite some time now. But then I realised that when I agreed with him that his fate is probably sealed, I realised that there were still quite a few other people that have to vote and that he may not get lynched toDay.

Trying to make a throwaway vote? Trying to cover tracks when Garin would be found innocent?

#101: Says he’s going to sleep.

DAY 2:

#167: Promises analysis of Caralondien and Valire
#168: Analysis of Valier, which he says doesn’t; get him far. Wonders why she voted for him instead of Fordmenacil.

#171: Analysis of Caralondien. Finds it odd that she says she didn’t want to vote for Ang, then did when it would be a safe vote.

Interesting point, though Cana;ondien has been quite logical and helpful recently.

#192: Says that he’s playing more boldly than usual and likes it. Suspects Naria for unnerving quietness.

#235: Oft cited comment to Lhuna, “Is this a confession?” Suspects Gurthang and Lhuina of being Lovers. Agrees that votes may have been cast to save potential Lovers Garin, Glirdan, and TGWBS. Reiterates that he has changes his style. Also accuses Cailin and Gurthang of being potential Lovers. Asks Eomer why he would attack Ang as a wolf after being accused since it makes him look suspicious. (Replied to by Eomer in 237, where he points out Gliry is jumpy over the accusation considering it was much more focused on Kath than on him).

#243: Continues to say that he would not have attacked Ang if he were a wolf because it would brig too much suspicion on to him.

#245: Votes for Naria on the basis of her being suspiciously quiet.

Defended by wolf-Lhuna in 269 (where she also quotes her day 1 defense of innocent-Garin and him).

DAY 3:

#338: Laments spawn. Finds a Kath dream more likely than a Lhuna dream. Thinks that Kath could get away with being a wolf. Asks TGWBS why the wolves would attack females only since they did attack Ang before and says that we can’t base our votes on the idea that the wolves will attack in this manner because there’s no proof that they will (in reference to the lynch all males plan).

Sensible with regard to the plan. But raises my suspicion a little with regard to dense of Lhuna. Only vaguely gives suspicion of Kath, never comes out and says if he suspects her or not - just mentions thatt a dream of Kath is more likely than Lhuna.

#340: Analysis of Eonwe.

Agree with others that there wasn’t much point to doing this.

#351: Summary of spawn‘s posts.

#399: Completed spawn analysis. Says that he doesn’t find evidence of a Kath or Lhuna dream, thinks that spawn voted for Lhuna on instinct and evidence gathering.

Still doesn’t make it clear if he finds Kath of Lhuna suspicious.

#412. Doesn’t know who to vote for. Now supports a double lynch. Says there are cases against Lhuna and Kath and that there’s not much to go on about Kath. Seems to be leaning towards voting for Naria.

I find this post just a bit odd, especially since it covers both sides of the issue with Kath, then attacks Naria mildly. I don’t know. It just feels wishy-washy and base covering. Could just be a confused innocent, but it feels wrong to me.

#414: Decides Kath is a Wolf due to flip flop on Lhuna. And votes for her.

This could speak to Glirdy’s innocence. But it came at a ‘safe’ time (as I acknowledge my vote did) if he wanted to hide his vote. Then again, would a Kath vote have been so safe once Lhuna was revealed to be guilty? That would have immediately brought suspiciousness on Kath voters if the double lynch failed after Lhuna’s identity was revealed.

Incidentally, I don’t know how much yesterday’s voting can really tell us, since there was no choice but the vote wolf for wolf without looking very suspicious. And the rest of us were voting either on genuine suspicion (which turned out to be well founded) or also to help the double lynch plan. And I’m not sure there’s any way to tease it out of the tangle.


Just a few other closing thoughts. I think Gurthang is innocent, based on his ensuring the double lynch last night (though it was pretty obvious that Lhuna was a wolf at the time he voted for her). And I still didn’t find anything to make me suspect lmp as I glanced over his posts.

Glirdan does, however, look very suspicious to me now given Lhuna’s defense of him and the various things a commented on above. I might just vote for him unless something happens to change my mind.