The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

Farael · 03-19-2006, 04:27 PM

Thinlomien: Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
The Guy Who Be Short: Farael (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1)
Formendacil: Kath (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)

It seems that the three main suspects for the day (and yes, I reckon that I'm being suspected) have been voted for already. While it's likely that one (or two) of us three will be lynched today, I would suggest that we don't focus solely on us. Should we all be misguided, the wolves may slip through the cracks.

Having said that, and without forgetting that my main suspect is Kath, for whom I shall most likely vote by the end of the day, I shall raise my personal concerns about TGWBS. Maybe not for today, but for further reference.

*He proposes a strategy that seems logical enough
*When his strategy is challenged, he attacks the challengers
*When his strategy is proven mostly incorrect, he gives up on it but still tries to vouch in favour of lynching one of the loudest opposers of his theory.

Now, when (and if) I die, you will see I'm no wolf. That plays straight into The Guy's hand, as a wolf would not be that blatantly obvious and you will all see I'm no seer thus I was just a villager who disagreed with him. He'll say he's terribly sorry but... we will be one male short. If the wolves happen to kill another male during the night, he'll again argue "let's kill all males" given that the mathematical odds will increase. I don't feel like working up the numbers right now, but I'm pretty certain they will not increase in a significant amount.

The Guy has also been very vocal, going after about a quarter of the village in the last three days. Obviously, a wolf would not do that because loudmouths get lynched.... or so HE says. By the same statistics he so much seems to like, odds are that he has accused, raised concerns or mentioned in a bad light more innocents than wolves.

His behaviour seemed more that of a misguided loudmouth up to today. His far-fetched plan (something I cautioned us against before) and his attack on me (whom, unlike you all, know I'm innocent) have raised a thought that had not occurred to me before.

He seems VERY interested in getting rid of the lovers. Surely, the lovers are more of a concern to the wolves than what they are to us innocent villagers, as if we find the wolves we find the lovers... but if the wolves don't find the lovers, the traitor in their midst can do much more damage than the ordo lover. One traitor working against four can do more damage than one traitor working against twenty.

Is The Guy's fixation on finding the lovers suddenly seems pretty interesting. He has offered me and Lhuna for the sacrificial pyre at the end of the day.... I shall offer you a new possibility. Kath is still high up there in my suspect list, but The Guy is climbing fast. Furthermore, by his attack on me and Lhuna, The Guy is moving attention away from Kath herself. I've spent many of my posts arguing the pro/cons of his theory as well as defending myself where I thought I needed to make a stand and very little time explaining my thoughts about Kath to anyone who has some doubts about them.

I propose lynching Kath and The Guy in two days, and in that order. That way, should Kath's death reveal some useful information, we could use ANALYSIS (something The Guy seems to be mildly against this early on the village) to decide whether or not we should go on and rid ourselves of The Guy

Some of the proposers of the double-lynch seem to think that given that we will probably lynch both individuals anyway, we might as well do it at once... yet you forget that new things may come up, new lines of thought my sway our persuasion.... and furthermore, the death of ONE of the two people may somehow put the other in the clear.

Thus I propose, let's go after Kath today, and depending on what we see and what Guy answers to my accusation when he comes back, we'll lynch him later.

03-19-2006, 04:27 PM	#389
Farael Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment. Posts: 1,538	Voting so far Thinlomien: Lhuna (Lhuna 1) The Guy Who Be Short: Farael (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1) Formendacil: Kath (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1 - Kath 1) It seems that the three main suspects for the day (and yes, I reckon that I'm being suspected) have been voted for already. While it's likely that one (or two) of us three will be lynched today, I would suggest that we don't focus solely on us. Should we all be misguided, the wolves may slip through the cracks. Having said that, and without forgetting that my main suspect is Kath, for whom I shall most likely vote by the end of the day, I shall raise my personal concerns about TGWBS. Maybe not for today, but for further reference. He proposes a strategy that seems logical enough When his strategy is challenged, he attacks the challengers When his strategy is proven mostly incorrect, he gives up on it but still tries to vouch in favour of lynching one of the loudest opposers of his theory. Now, when (and if) I die, you will see I'm no wolf. That plays straight into The Guy's hand, as a wolf would not be that blatantly obvious and you will all see I'm no seer thus I was just a villager who disagreed with him. He'll say he's terribly sorry but... we will be one male short. If the wolves happen to kill another male during the night, he'll again argue "let's kill all males" given that the mathematical odds will increase. I don't feel like working up the numbers right now, but I'm pretty certain they will not increase in a significant amount. The Guy has also been very vocal, going after about a quarter of the village in the last three days. Obviously, a wolf would not do that because loudmouths get lynched.... or so HE says. By the same statistics he so much seems to like, odds are that he has accused, raised concerns or mentioned in a bad light more innocents than wolves. His behaviour seemed more that of a misguided loudmouth up to today. His far-fetched plan (something I cautioned us against before) and his attack on me (whom, unlike you all, know I'm innocent) have raised a thought that had not occurred to me before. He seems VERY interested in getting rid of the lovers. Surely, the lovers are more of a concern to the wolves than what they are to us innocent villagers, as if we find the wolves we find the lovers... but if the wolves don't find the lovers, the traitor in their midst can do much more damage than the ordo lover. One traitor working against four can do more damage than one traitor working against twenty. Is The Guy's fixation on finding the lovers suddenly seems pretty interesting. He has offered me and Lhuna for the sacrificial pyre at the end of the day.... I shall offer you a new possibility. Kath is still high up there in my suspect list, but The Guy is climbing fast. Furthermore, by his attack on me and Lhuna, The Guy is moving attention away from Kath herself. I've spent many of my posts arguing the pro/cons of his theory as well as defending myself where I thought I needed to make a stand and very little time explaining my thoughts about Kath to anyone who has some doubts about them. I propose lynching Kath and The Guy in two days, and in that order. That way, should Kath's death reveal some useful information, we could use ANALYSIS (something The Guy seems to be mildly against this early on the village) to decide whether or not we should go on and rid ourselves of The Guy Some of the proposers of the double-lynch seem to think that given that we will probably lynch both individuals anyway, we might as well do it at once... yet you forget that new things may come up, new lines of thought my sway our persuasion.... and furthermore, the death of ONE of the two people may somehow put the other in the clear. Thus I propose, let's go after Kath today, and depending on what we see and what Guy answers to my accusation when he comes back, we'll lynch him later. __________________ I prepared Explosive Runes* this morning.