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On Guy's maths
Obviously, being in a werewolf village is a gamble in itself. However, playing the odds with possible percentages has a real chance of backfiring. The only number that I trust in your maths analysis is the 100% for a male lover. That one's obvious. But all the other numbers could prove disastrously wrong. Maybe all the werewolves are women. Think about it: the Mod God probably randomly picked roles first, getting his 2 werewolves and 2 seers, and then from the werewolves picked a lover, and from the innocents (minus seers obviously) picked the ordo lover. That means that, probabilities nonetheless, there could be all women werewolves. Obviously I can't know this, but I don't want to discount it either.
Far better to go with a thorough combing of every word said by everyone. I don't trust in probabilities, though your offering of them gives me hope that you're not a werewolf yourself.
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