[the guy who be short]

I must go, but I want to raise a final, very controversial point before I do so.


We should systematically double lynch the male gender until we find the lovers.

There are 8 men and 10 women. If we systematically lynch men, we get the following:

Day 3 - 6 men, 10 women.
Night 4 - 6, 9
Day 4 - 4, 9
Night 5 - 4, 8
Day 5 - 2, 8
Night 6 - 2, 7
Day 6 - 0, 7

This is the worst case scenario. However, I don't think it will be that bad.


Think about it. There is a 100% chance that there is a lover in the male gender. By lynching 2 men today, we have a 25% chance of finding him. If this fails, we try again tomorrow. We have a 33% chance of lynching him. Overall, we stand a 50% chance of getting the lovers in the first two days!

Some may not view the lovers as as important as the wolves, but they are dangerous dissidents - especially the innocent lover, who appears as an innocent to the Seer. We can bring the enemies of the village down from 5 to 3 rather quickly.


And this is just thinking of the lovers. That maths doesn't count the fact that there are likely to be wolves in the 8 men too.

Each man, at present, stands a 2/9 chance of being a wolf. This means there is an 87% chance (1 - [7/9]^8) that there is at least one wolf in those eight men, possibly two, three or even four.



Taking this into account:

We have a 25% chance of lynching the lovers and a 22% chance of lynching a wolf this day.

If we get nothing, there are 6 men, 9 women left. There is a 4/15, or 26% chance of a wolf, and a 33% chance of a lover.


There's a lot of maths, but overall, if we double lynch all men, we have an over 50% chance of catching village dissidents in two days!

So, is it worth the cost of all those innocents?

I say yes. We increase our overall chances of winning, villagers, if we follow this strategy. More importantly, it is far easier to find wolves once we have got one wolf to work from.