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As a German proverb says, “Luck is with the hard-worker”; circumstances help him to achieve his goal.
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Or as Branch Rickey said:
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Luck is the residue of design.
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Bilbo is helped, of course, by having more then the
usual portion of luck (witness the elves not
checking why some barrels are so heavy).
E.T. makes a good point about Bilbo's bravery
jumping into the water. I hadn't considered it
before, but given the fate of his parents, indeed
quite a notable act. This chapter's theme also inspired
some fine, evocative drawings, not just the above
but several later showing the shore curving where
they're caught and organized by elves to be sent
downstream.
Another point, the presentation of the dwarves reasons
for not talking and Thranduil's for wanting information
from them not only give both sides reasoned views but also
presage one of the most remarkable and fascinating
later discussion of the various plusses and minuses of the elves, men,
and dwarves various claims on the treasure of Erebor.
Another echo is Bilbo once again unknowingly almost hitting his
head on the top of the river tunnel, as he almost did when
escaping from Gollum.