[Aiwendil]

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

My canine colleague,

I think things went more or less as well as we could hope toDAY. You are deemed completely innocent due to your vote for Eomer. I am still under scrutiny, but it seems that of the non-Eomer voters, I am perhaps the least suspect. The fact that it's been so quiet works in our favour, I think - though it leaves less room to hide.

Anyway, I suppose the big question toNIGHT is whether to kill Mormegil or Formendacil. What it really comes down to, I guess, is: 1. How sure we are that Morm is the Hunter; 2. How likely it is that he's hunting one of us.

I'm still rather inclined to think he's the Hunter, particularly given that we were right about Boromir. Nonetheless, I want to see how well I can convince myself of it.

Farael is almost certainly not the Hunter, given his self-vote. Nilp is probably not, either, given his anagram. But I would like to go back over the posts of Celuien, Glirdan, and Kath for any possible hints of Giftedness before we settle on Morm.

But, let's suppose Mormegil is the Hunter. The next question is whether it's possible that he's hunting one of us. We can be virtually certain he's not hunting you. But what about me? Early in the DAY, he picked up on my attempts to save Eomer and said that I was looking suspicious to him:

He later backed off of this, saying:

Late in the DAY, he said:

Now, if we take what he says at face value, it seems rather unlikely that he'll hunt me tonight. Much more likely he'll go for Farael. However, it strikes me that it's possible he was trying to set me up and quiet any fears I might have of killing him.

Also, we have to consider how he'll react to Tar's innocence. He seemed fairly confident of her guilt earlier. Will he see this as further evidence that I was trying to save Eomer by casting suspicion on Tar?

Well, those are some things to think about. I am definitely leaning toward killing Mormegil tonight. He's only likely to become more dangerous later.

Originally Posted by The Lycan Man

Wolf Ngaurondil

I have to say, though, that I think the day went rather magnificently, although it was a bit of a roller-coaster ride early on.

Boromir88 turning out to be the Ranger was of course great. I had convinced myself that he was because of those White Tree icons. Strange how no one really commented much on his death. With Boro having been the Ranger, I am almost certain that mormegil is the Hunter.

The Day took a bit of a downturn with morm's initial suspicions of you. You handled that very well. But then, just after I had made a strong case against Farael (who's bizarre logic is his own worst enemy), he went and voted for himself. I thought that might get some villager's sympathy (as it did Formendacil's), but decided to maintain my suspicions of him as it could easily be viewed as a Wolfish ploy. After that, things just got better and better with everyone seemingly turning against tar. She did not help herself with that one short post. Indeed, neither Kath nor Glirdan really helped their causes either. The longer their lack of any substantive input goes on, the more suspicious they will become. And I found it amazing that we virtually had the run of the village ourselves for much of the day, to plant the seeds of suspicion at our leisure, if you will. The only concern here is that it makes us noticeable, and people will start wondering why the Wolves have not killed us (especially me).

It is excellent that you got away without voting for the Day's lynchee for once. I considered voting for Farael, but thought it best that we vote differently and tar looked the more likely to be lynched. With my record it was better that I voted for her. Actually, I almost considered voting for you, but I was concerned that morm and Form might follow suit. It would also have been rather illogical, based on the suspicions that I had been airing.

The case for killing morm is that he is (I am sure) the Hunter and, as you say, he backed off his suspicions of you considerably towards the end of the Day. His innocence is virtually accepted by all and, if he is the Hunter, he might declare at any time and become a known innocent. We also have the chance of taking two villagers down with one kill. The case for not killing morm is that there is a reasonable chance that he will Hunt you tonight, especially with tar being proved innocent. Your vote for tar on day five now looks dangerously like an attempt to save Eomer. In addition, I do think that morm is easier to persuade than Form. That's not to say that we can manipulate him, but he does take notice of what others say and pays attention to well-made arguments. I also have a rather selfish reason for not wanting to kill off morm. As long as he is around, I look less suspicious for still being alive. And, let's face it, with morm dead, you and I will be virtually the only villagers left speaking.

Problem is that, the longer he stays alive, the more likely he is to Hunt one of us as and when we do kill him. So, unless he is to stay around until the end, we probably ought to kill him tonight. Either option (morm of Form) has its risks for us.

On balance, I think we probably ought to kill mormegil. But you are the one most at risk if we do, so it's up to you.

In addition to working out our kill, we need to consider who each of us should target with our suspicions tomorrow. I doubt that either of us can really back down from our suspicions of Farael. In addition to him, I plan on briefing against Kath (quite an easy task) with perhaps a little suspicion of Glirdan thrown in. It is difficult to make a case against Celuien, so perhaps you ought to start taking a look at Nilp.

Finally, we should think about what to do if the village starts to turn against you in light of tar's innocence. I think that you should be able to pull through it. Farael and Kath should be more likely candidates to be lynched. But, although I would rather not be left as a lone Wolf, I may have to consider voting for you, even if it risks you being lynched. I think that I will certainly have to express some strong doubt about you quite early on. Either that or I back off my suspicions of you and start regarding you as more likely innocent, perhaps an unlikely approach for a Wolf to take towards a fellow Wolf at this stage of the game. I just think that my current "some suspicions" approach will look rather obvious if you are lynched. What do you think?

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

I've looked back at Glirdan's, Kath's, and Celuien's posts, and I still don't see any sign that one of them could be the Hunter. So I'm feeling pretty confident that we're right about Morm now.

Which leaves the question of whether he's hunting me. I've been pondering the last thing he said about me:

I noted earlier the possibility that his decrease in suspicion of me could be a set-up to get us to kill him tonight. But that's not the feeling I get from this quote. If he intended such a set-up, I'd expect him to state clearly that he thinks I'm innocent. Here he comes across as quite genuine in thinking that I look more innocent but that he still has some doubts.

So let's set aside the set-up possibility. Supposing that his views are more or less exactly as stated, will he hunt me? The one thing that might cause him to do so is Tar's innocence. I was pretty firm in linking her with Eomer on DAY 4. But on DAY 5, I backed off significantly, saying that Eomer's last-minute antics made Tar look much less suspicious. I even voted for Farael instead. So I'm really not sure to what extent Tar's death will implicate me in Morm's mind.

But another thing to consider is the fact that Mormegil will probably only get more and more dangerous. Suppose we don't kill him tonight. Suppose we lynch Farael tomorrow. He's innocent. Now Mormegil will most certainly suspect me. Getting him lynched (even if we could do it) wouldn't help, because he may very well take one of us with him that way as well.

Can we win without Mormegil's death? I tend to think not. He could declare himself as the Hunter, remember, in which case we'd have a proven innocent - and a very intelligent proven innocent - with very few villagers left.

This is true. On the other hand, killing Morm would almost pre-empt suspicion of you. What I mean is that you'd have a very simple answer to the question "Why are the wolves not killing the loud, unsuspected villagers like SpM?" "Well," you'd say, "the wolves are killing the loud, unsuspected villagers. They've killed Boromir and Mormegil and I wouldn't be surprised if I'm next."

So I suppose I lean toward killing Mormegil as well. I'd like to think it over a little bit more, though.

I agree that Kath will be a good target for you tomorrow, particularly with her vote for Tar. I'm thinking that I'll remove Celuien from my suspect list and possibly go after Glirdan. In writing my analysis of him, I found a few weak points to target. But I guess it's inevitable that Farael will be my top suspect tomorrow.

I would wait at least a little while and try to see which way village opinion of me seems to be going. Of particular interest is Formendacil's opinion, because he's a proven innocent who will be trusted. If it looks like a storm is brewing against me, then you could start to ramp up your suspicion. But if not (if, for instance, things are more focused on Farael), it might be a good idea to go the other way - to back off a little with your suspicion of me.

Originally Posted by Wolfman Sauce

I think that morm will still have reservations about targetting you (or me, for that matter) as the three of us were the only ones who really contributed much of substance today. It may be that he will not want to risk the village losing your valuable input as well as his in one blow.

It really all comes down to how much he is likely to suspect you and how much he suspects others. As you say, you backed off your suspicions of tar during the Day, and voted for Farael who, for all he knows, is a Wolf.

Indeed, his most likely alternative target, I think, is Farael. He voted for Farael, so he was obviously unimpressed with the self-vote. Tar and Farael were most villagers' main suspects during the Day. With tar proven innocent, the obvious choice is surely Farael. Of course, if morm does Hunt Farael and takes him down with him, you will attract a fair amount of suspicion the next Day, but I am sure that you can deal with that.

His other possible target is Kath, given that he noted her vote for tar as curious at the end of the Day. She does look suspicious.

On balance, I think he will go for Farael, but it's still a risk, obviously. I reckon that morm will be expecting to be attacked tonight, so he will choose his kill very carefully.

Originally Posted by The Analytical Wolf

Some further thoughts.

I think that we do have a reasonable chance of winning without killing mormegil tonight, but this would most likely involve you standing as a sacrifice, with me going strongly against you, on Day 6 or 7. That would allow me to kill mormegil the Night after your death with minimum risk and probably gain me enough credibility to take the win on Day 8 (some time next Monday).

If, however, we kill mormegil tonight, we could be making it much easier or much more difficult for ourselves, depending on who he takes with him.

If he takes Farael with him, we have a chance of winning with both of us surviving and in a shorter time (on Day 7), depending upon how the remaining villagers react to you following the deaths of tar, mormegil and Farael.

If, however, morm takes you with him, the whole game becomes rather more difficult to win, particularly as this carries with it the most chance of the village (Formendacil and Farael particularly) turning on me.

Originally Posted by Wolfagast the Brown

I've been pondering.

Leaving Mormegil alive tonight and performing a wolf sacrifice on DAY 6 or 7 is an attractive possibility. I would envision things going more or less like this:

- Form dies tonight.
- I get lynched tomorrow
- Mormegil dies the next night, taking someone (maybe Kath?) with him
- That leaves you and four innocents on DAY 7

You'd be fairly secure after getting both me and Eomer lynched, and it would probably come down to you vs. two innocents on DAY 8.

On the other hand, if we kill Mormegil tonight and he doesn't happen to be hunting me, it'll be the two of us versus five innocents tomorrow. There's a fair chance I'd be lynched on DAY 6, which would again leave you and four innocents on DAY 7.

Of course, the best case scenario would be that we kill Mormegil tonight, he kills, say, Farael, and I manage to survive DAY 6 (which is possible, given that Kath looks rather suspicious). Then it would be the two of us versus three innocents on DAY 7, and we'd be virtually certain to win.

And last of all there's the worst case scenario - we kill Mormegil and he takes me with him. Then it would be you against six innocents on DAY 6. In all likelihood, this would devolve to you versus four innocents on DAY 7, the only difference from the previous scenarios being that you would not have the extra security of having lynched me.

I'm really quite torn. My usual instinct is to play it safe, but I'm very tempted to take the gamble.

Originally Posted by Viscount Kettle the Wolfish

That pretty much mirrors my thinking.

I am up for the gamble, but given that you are the one most at risk, it's your call.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

All right, I'm up for the gamble as well. Let's kill Mormegil.

If I die tonight, good luck to you!

Originally Posted by Wolfman Sauce

Mormegil it is then. I shall PM Shemod.

If you die tonight, I am going to have a very hard time bringing the game home. But I will do my best.

I sincerely hope that you do not.

If you do, my condolences.

Apologies for our loquacity - though what I've posted has been significantly trimmed down, honestly!