[Aiwendil]

Night 4

Originally Posted by Eomer

Hello comrades!

As thrilling as that was, I must say I'm becoming more pessimistic about our chances of winning. It looks like Aiwendil and I will both be lynched, quite possibly in the next two days.

Still, we have a kill to work out. I suspected Spawn and Nilp are the Guardian and Hunter. In a post earlier today Spawn simply declared 'Nilp is innocent'. Any thoughts?

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

What a day!

So, Eomer and I have both come under some heavy attacks. The three who voted for me were Farael, Boromir, and Form. Of those three, I'd say only Farael is nearly certain to vote for me again tomorrow. Formendacil has not offered much in the way of a case against me. I expect I might be able to persuade him to give me the benefit of the doubt. Boromir I'm not sure about.

So I think that I can probably survive DAY 4. The attacks against Eomer worry me more. I tried to build on the similarities between Eomer's "shrill" defense and the similar defense offered by LMP earlier to suggest Eomer's innocence, but I don't think anyone bought it. Nonetheless, it looks to me like as decent a strategy as any. But I fear that Eomer may be toast no matter what is said in his defense tomorrow.

I think that our choice for a kill toNIGHT is going to hinge critically upon our intended strategy for tomorrow. It seems to me that this is one case where it might be an effective tactic to take out one of those who looks likely to vote for me or Eomer tomorrow. I'm thinking mainly of those who voted for us other than Farael and Spawn. So first of all, we need to decide whether it's worth doing something as bold as that or whether it would be better to take it for granted that one of us will die tomorrow and try to set things up as nicely as possible for the survivors.

Another option, bolder and perhaps quite foolhardy, would be to take out either Farael or Spawn. It would, obviously, get people into the frame-up/double bluff debate. The obvious downside to such a move - that it puts either me or Eomer right in the spotlight - is somewhat moot now, since we'll be in the spotlight in any case. If we felt more or less sure that, say, Eomer was going to die tomorrow, it would probably be worth killing Spawn, simply because that would throw another (very unpredictable) variable into the mix and would have a chance of changing a few minds.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

What a day indeed!

Eomer, I am afraid to say that you are looking in quite bad shape. I thought at one point that you would be lynched today. Not as a result of anyhing that you said or did. I thought that you handled it very well. I am not really sure where all that came from, as dancing spawn's case, however accurate, is not that great. I wonder whether she is a Gifted and her ally is one of those supporting her. Mormegil, perhaps? I am sorry if my own case against you contributed. I was following the strategy we agreed last night of echoing spawn's case. And then lmp's outburst happened. I tried to back off a bit at the end of the day and support your case against spawn, but I had to be careful. Still, you only received two votes out of a possible 13, so it's not certain that you will be lynched tomorrow.

Aiwendil, I actually think that you look in altogether better shape. Farael did not vote, so you only received 2 votes - from Formendacil and Boro. Form's was based on his previous day's vote, as he was otherwise indisposed for most of the day, so didn't have a chance to update his thinking. I think that I have a good rapport with Boromir88, so might be able to persuade him away from you. Anyway, I intend continuing to support you. There is really very little evidence against you.

Surprisingly, I am in great shape. I don't really quite know why. I have been trying to behave as I would an innocent, which normally brings me under severe suspicion by now. And I thought that my cynical attitude to lmp might cause some bad feeling against me. Funnily enough, the whole episode with him probably worked in my favour, as I was able to walk away from my case against him much more easily than if he had been lynched and shown to be innocent. And I really think that your briefing against me helped, Aiwendil, as it helped me get that whole "why is he still here?" thing out of the way.

So who should we kill today?

Dancing spawn is a definite possibility. It could well mean the end of Eomer tomorrow, though, so Aiwendil and I would need to consider how we should react. We could either go against Eomer ourselves or take the position that it looked like overly risky behaviour for a Wolfish Eomer to kill spawn. It would be a delicate balance, and I think that a lot of people would be prepared to believe that Eomer, as a Wolf, would be bold.

Eomer raised the possibility of Nilp and dancing spawn being the Ranger and Hunter. It's possible that Nilp is a Gifted, although that would mean he was lying in his anagram (for shame ). And I am not sure that dancing spawn would have been so bold to have declared her fellow Gifted's innocence in the way that she did. I do, however, believe that spawn could be a Gifted. Along with one of the others who supported her case against Eomer. Which points to mormegil.

Problem 1. If spawn is the Hunter, she will undoubtedly kill Eomer tonight, which would put us a Wolf down going into tomorrow and possibly two Wolves down coming out of it.

Problem 2. If spawn is not Gifted, she seems to me to be a prime candidate for Ranger protection. We don't want to waste a kill if we can possibly avoid it.

Any other possibilities? I don't want to kill Farael, as I don't think that you are in that serious a position, Aiwendil. Besides, he may well start looking suspicious for his plan to lynch lmp and for his non-vote (it could be made to look like lmp had put a spanner in his plans). And Formendacil and Boromir88 are out for the same reason. Kath and Celuin are possibilities. But I think that I would rather keep them. Tar-ancalime might be worth considering. It might reflect badly on spawn, and possibly relieve some of the pressure on Eomer.

So, Glirdan, Nilp, tar-ancalime or spawn?

The main question, I suppose, is to kill spawn or not to kill spawn.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'd love to kill Spawn. There's a good chance the Guardian protected Spawn last night because that's when she really started going after me. Even if he/she didn't it's quite possible that he/she will leave Spawn well alone, so obviously involved in the discussion as she is. Of course, she could be the Guardian herself.

It would be a risk, certainly a risk; but because no wolf has been caught yet, this game has been too hard to predict Guardian activity.

We need to start killing the Hunter, the Guardian, and the False Seer. We can't have these people ready to declare themselves at the end of the game.

If Spawn is the Hunter then it would be worth losing me to take her out. I will be lynched sooner or later regardless.

I also agree that Farael will look quite bad today, and this might be the best opportunity to go on the attack. How do you think such an attack could be structured?

Tar-Ancalime's a strange one. She was under quite a lot of pressure near the start of the game but it has disappeared somewhat.

So, tentatively, Spawn is my choice for the attack. And don't discount my chances of avoiding the noose tomorrow, even if we get her!

Originally Posted by Wolfy Sauce

An attack on Farael should not be too difficult to pursue. We have laid the groundwork already. He suggested lynching littlemanpoet to get at Aiwendil. I think that he can still be portrayed as a Wolf who is limiting his attacks to a few innocents. He probably will go back to attacking Aiwendil tomorrow, which could work to Aiwendil's advantage. There are still quite a few who believe you likely to be innocent.

I agree that you should go against mormegil tomorrow, Eomer. His approach to littlemanpoet can be viewed as "flip-flopping" (but don't use that word). I was planning on attacking him myself, but I may lay off him a bit. I'll see how things go.

On further consideration, I think that we should not attack tar-ancalime tonight. Suspicion of her was beginning to rise towards the end of the day and she may well come under attack tomorrow, particularly if we kill spawn.

And the more that I think about it, the more I agree that we should kill spawn. I have a feeling that she is a Gifted and, even if she is not, she is dangerous.

I am not sure yet what strategy I will adopt. It will seem strange not to look at the Garin voters, which will involve looking at you both. But, given the way things went yesterday, the voting record can be made to look unreliable. And Garin was definately looking suspicious, so your votes for him do not look unduly strange.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

As for the proposed candidates for tonight's kill:

Glirdan is a possibility. He's not under much suspicion and his death wouldn't leave an obvious trail. I'd say that if we don't kill Spawn, we should kill Glirdan.

Nilpaurion - Rather like Glirdan. I'd prefer Glirdan on the off chance that he's Gifted, though (I rather doubt that a Gifted Nilp would lie in an anagram).

Tar-Ancalime - I agree that suspicion of her seems to be on the rise again. I also don't think that her death would put that much pressure on Spawn.

Spawn - The big decision, obviously. If Eomer is willing to go for it, killing her would at least make things interesting tomorrow. Much as I fear she might be the Hunter and that we might go into DAY 4 down a wolf, it also seems to me that if she is the Hunter, she's likely to continue to hunt Eomer. Which would make now as good a time as ever.

So Spawn looks like the best choice for tonight to me as well.

The one further thing we have to decide is how SPM and I should react to the inevitable Eomer situation tomorrow.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

Given what I said about Eomer yesterday, and particularly if we kill spawn tonight, I think that I am going to have to maintain my suspicions of him. I will make the usual point about it looking very risky for a Wolfish Eomer to kill spawn. But I cannot back down from my suspicions on that basis alone. Looking back, I actually wish I had voted for you yesterday, Eomer, as you only received 2 votes, whereas Garin received 4. However, at the time I voted it looked quite possible that you would get more than 2 votes. So, for my part, I will maintain my suspicions of Eomer. If it looks likely, from what people are saying, I may even put in an early vote for you to try and gain some credit if you are lynched, if that's OK with you.

As for you Aiwendil, I think that you are in a much better position to try to counter the inevitable suspicion of Eomer. However, it is up to you, as you could be left in a dangerous position if he is lynched. Perhaps best to play it by ear and see if there are any others who are not convinced of Eomer's likely guilt.

Originally Posted by Sauce Wolf

If we think that he is quite likely to be lynched, I wonder whether it might be worth Eomer claiming to be the False Seer? If it comes off, we may be able to get the real False Seer lynched and at the very least we would identify him/her as a kill for tomorrow night (and thereby avoid him/her becoming a known innocent later in the game). Or might it look too transparent?

In any event, it would have to be pre-emptive to look at all credible, ie before the False Seer declares (unless the False Seer declares in a situation where he/she is likely to be lynched).

Originally Posted by Eomer

Anyway, I am very happy to attack Spawn tonight. Even if she is the Hunter, I will remain her target for the whole game, probably. And we can't have the two gifteds and the false Seer hanging around.

The option of me claiming to be the False Seer is intriguing. I think it might be worthwhile. But I'll have to play it by ear.

If I die soon, here's something you should make the most of. It's famously a bad idea for the wolves to defend each other within the game, so much so that my defences could tell quite the story once I'm gone. You may notice that I have given my trust to both of you, Aiwendil and SPM. You should play this for what it's worth. Say that a wolf wouldn't be so obvious to trust his fellow wolves, and that wolf-Eomer was probably trying to set you up (more so SPM because Aiwendil is already under some pressure).

And about tomorrow, if we do manage to kill Spawn and I'm still alive: I'd appreciate it, even though you may have to vote for me, if you accept that my defence against Spawn's accusations is very fair. You never know: that could make Formendacil or Kath or whoever sympathise with me.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

Spawn 'tis.

You know, I think that Eomer claiming to be the False Seer is a great idea - if his death looks certain. If it does, I can see no downside to the claim. Yes, it would be transparent, but that would be quite irrelevant if Eomer's dead in any case.

So my advice, Eomer, would be that you wait and see how likely you are to be lynched. If you think don't think you can pull out of it, "come forward" as the False Seer. You could have some fun making up false dreams too . . .

I agree that I'm in a good position to defend Eomer tomorrow. But I think I'll argue that Spawn's accusations are rather specious, rather than trying to build up a case for your innocence in and of itself.

I've been trying to guess who, besides me and Eomer, is likely to emerge as a lynch-candidate tomorrow. We seem to be at a stage where just about everyone is under some vague suspicion but no one has emerged as a clear favorite. I'm interested in trying to figure this out because, while I'd like to cast a vote that might save Eomer, I don't want to look like I'm "bandwagoning". So my hope is that if I pick my target correctly early tomorrow, I can remain fairly consistent all day.

A final thing to consider is how we ought to react if Spawn is indeed the Hunter and takes Eomer down with her tonight. In such a case, we may very well be able to get things rolling against Tar-ancalime on the basis of her DAY 1 "random" vote for him.