The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

Celuien · 03-02-2006, 08:56 PM

And some more numbers:

Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Celuien
________________
Wolves: 2
Villagers: 5

Assuming that the wolves are to be found among Farael, Glirdy or Aiwendil, if we kill an innocent from that list toDAY, we start tomorrow at Wolves 2, Villagers 3. But we'd then pretty much know the identities of the remaining two wolves. What we would have to do, however, is coordinate so that all innocents vote for the same wolf tomorrow. Then we would end tomorrow at Wolves 1, Villagers 3, start the following day at Wolves 1, Villagers 2 and win the game on that day.

If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, Villagers 3. But then if we're wrong tomorrow, we end the day at villagers 2, wolves 1 and lose that night.

So what I'm trying to say is that we're better off making our mistake today. I'd therefore be more comfortable tackling the Aiwendil/Farael issue today and holding off on Glirdy until tomorrow, since that's where I feel the main uncertainty lies.

If I've made an mistakes in my numeric reckoning, please point them out.

*still looking at Aiwendil*

03-02-2006, 08:56 PM	#474
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	And some more numbers: Living: Saucepan Man Farael Aiwendil Glirdan Formendacil Nilpaurion Felagund Celuien ________________ Wolves: 2 Villagers: 5 Assuming that the wolves are to be found among Farael, Glirdy or Aiwendil, if we kill an innocent from that list toDAY, we start tomorrow at Wolves 2, Villagers 3. But we'd then pretty much know the identities of the remaining two wolves. What we would have to do, however, is coordinate so that all innocents vote for the same wolf tomorrow. Then we would end tomorrow at Wolves 1, Villagers 3, start the following day at Wolves 1, Villagers 2 and win the game on that day. If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, Villagers 3. But then if we're wrong tomorrow, we end the day at villagers 2, wolves 1 and lose that night. So what I'm trying to say is that we're better off making our mistake today. I'd therefore be more comfortable tackling the Aiwendil/Farael issue today and holding off on Glirdy until tomorrow, since that's where I feel the main uncertainty lies. If I've made an mistakes in my numeric reckoning, please point them out. still looking at Aiwendil __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.