I think I was misunderstood yesterDAy. I wanted 'out' not because things were 'looking bleak' but because I have no credibility left. What ever I say, it could be just shrugged off as "more of Farael's nonesense". Now it's too late, as it was mentioned before, that killing the wrong person will leave us with only one innocent above certain death.
Given the need to discard at least SOME suspects, I will write off SPM and Nilp for their vote against Eomer. Formen is also innocent, our lovely village fool. That leaves us with Aiwendil and the two non-voters. I will go through them in alphabetical order
Aiwendil:
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 tar-a Innocent No
2 Garin Innocent No
3 Garin Innocent Yes
4 tar-a Innocent No
Note here that it was the day we lynched Eomer.
5 Farael Unknown No
I concede that, while I know I'm innocent, you all do not.
Now, one of the main points against me is that I have limited the people I have voted for and thus I'm avoiding leaving a voting record. Well, Aiwendil has voted for three people, two of them the most popular to be lynched and yet yesterDay, when tar-a seemed to be the one going to the gallows, he changed his mind and voted for me. I can see why, but he also avoided voting for someone who would soon be revealed a known innocent. Don't be fooled by my three votes against Tar-a's four, as one of the three was by myself. All in all, only two villagers thought me suspicious enough to vote for me. One was Morm, our hunter... the other might have been trying to avoid voting for someone who would be revealed a known innocent after that night.
He has played an extremely cautious game, and it has worked out for him.
Celuien
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 Gil Innocent Yes
2 Garin Innocent No
3 Garin Innocent Yes
4 Tar-a Innocent No
Now it gets fishy... Eomer MIGHT have fooled her... but how about two smart wolves, who happened to be around at the same time trying to flush out a gifted? any way, it is very convenient and... did you note that it was actually Celuien who brought up the giftedness? post 396... Eomer had not insinuated anything about being gifted in his last posts, besides telling Formen that if the remaining voters voted for tar-a it would have been marvelous.... the more I look at it, the less it seems to me it was an accident and the more it was some quick thinking by the wolves. She didn't vote in day 5
Glirdan:
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 Gil Innocent Yes
2 Lhuna Innocent Yes
3 LMP Innocent Sort of, but he was the
main suspect until then
4 No vote, he declares he will be away for three days
5 No vote
I have almost nothing to go on with for Glirdan. The votes he did cast were all for innocents on the day of their lynching (or sudden dissapearing) but honestly, I have nothing to work with.
My thoughts
Aiwendil's voting pattern is just slightly better than mine, Glirdan's is outright awful when he did vote and Celuien's is no better. There are two things that I find interesting. First of all, I no longer think that Celuien was tricked by Eomer. Second, look at days 2 3 and 4 for both Aiwendil and Celuien.... same votes. On day 3, those two votes were the difference between Eomer and Garin. It's also very suspicious that on day 4 they both voted for Tar-a which was the second-most likely individual to be lynched.
While working on this post there were several replies.... two things I'd like to mention on.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by SPM
So, assuming that the Wolves did think mormegil to be the Hunter, Glirdan and Celuien, if Wolves, were the least likely to risk death themselves by targeting him, while Farael and Aiwendil, if Wolves, would have been taking a risk by attacking him
|
Actually, I don't think that Morm was really suspicious of Aiwendil by the end of the day. And as a matter of fact, his last comment hints heavily whom he would be after should he get murdered that night. I think Aiwendil could have still taken the chance.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Aiwendil
Anyway, I think that our best bets for toDAY are Farael and Glirdan. And I admit that if I were not myself, I'd probably add Aiwendil to that list. I'd be very surprised if neither Farael nor Glirdan is a wolf; and I wouldn't be surprised if both were. It also seems conceivable to me, if unlikely, that one from among Celuien, Nilp, and SpM is a wolf.
|
Add our only known innocent to the list and you will have all the villagers remaining besides himself
come on, I'm no longer 'having fun' by going after Aiwendil... does no-one else see this as playing way too safe? he is mentioning everyone, so if we get a wolf toDay he can say "I somewhat suspected him" and if we get an innocent he can say "Well, I didn't really suspect him the most"
Right now, Celuien and Aiwendil are looking pretty lynchable.... specially on account of their common votes on days two three and four (mostly three and four), Celuien's "mistake" and Aiwendil's extremely safe aproach