The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

Celuien · 03-02-2006, 08:00 PM

Playing the numbers game...

It looks like everyone is agreeing that the last two wolves are to be found in the group of Farael, Aiwendil, Glirdan or me.

Farael and Aiwendil are tied to each other through their early sparring, by virtue of which I think it's unlikely that they are both wolves. But, if that short list is correct, it's a 100% chance that one of them is lupine (since I know that I'm not).

Now, of the two, Aiwendil looks the less suspicious to me. He's been analytical. Right now, the main point against him is defense of Wereomer. A charge of which I am also guilty. Having fallen victim to Wereomer's tricks, I can easily see where others could have been fooled. Though I can also see Nilp's point. Though I can think of another reason for morm to have been attacked last night: a Wolfarael might have picked morm to look innocent, saying that a wolf team wouldn't use the same frame-up bluff twice, then taken the hunter by accident. Morm also somewhat suspected both Aiwendil and me. Either a wolvish Farael or Glirdy could have been trying to set up an innocent one of us.

Speaking of Farael, he also looks even odder after his self-vote, particularly in light of elempi's self-vote. Once it was used by a known innocent, a wolvish Farael might have used it as cover, thinking that by doing the same thing as a known innocent, he would also appear genuine by association.

What to do today? I'm pretty confident of that short list's being correct, based on discussion given over the past couple of days. Given the Aiwendil/Farael uncertainty, Glirdan might be the best choice for today, since I'm not totally sure of which is the wolf.

Unless SpM or Nilp have tricked me. In which case you deserve to win.

03-02-2006, 08:00 PM	#7
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	Playing the numbers game... It looks like everyone is agreeing that the last two wolves are to be found in the group of Farael, Aiwendil, Glirdan or me. Farael and Aiwendil are tied to each other through their early sparring, by virtue of which I think it's unlikely that they are both wolves. But, if that short list is correct, it's a 100% chance that one of them is lupine (since I know that I'm not). Now, of the two, Aiwendil looks the less suspicious to me. He's been analytical. Right now, the main point against him is defense of Wereomer. A charge of which I am also guilty. Having fallen victim to Wereomer's tricks, I can easily see where others could have been fooled. Though I can also see Nilp's point. Though I can think of another reason for morm to have been attacked last night: a Wolfarael might have picked morm to look innocent, saying that a wolf team wouldn't use the same frame-up bluff twice, then taken the hunter by accident. Morm also somewhat suspected both Aiwendil and me. Either a wolvish Farael or Glirdy could have been trying to set up an innocent one of us. Speaking of Farael, he also looks even odder after his self-vote, particularly in light of elempi's self-vote. Once it was used by a known innocent, a wolvish Farael might have used it as cover, thinking that by doing the same thing as a known innocent, he would also appear genuine by association. What to do today? I'm pretty confident of that short list's being correct, based on discussion given over the past couple of days. Given the Aiwendil/Farael uncertainty, Glirdan might be the best choice for today, since I'm not totally sure of which is the wolf. Unless SpM or Nilp have tricked me. In which case you deserve to win. __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.