Well, I have tried to draw my thoughts together as best I can, given that the rather dramatic events of today have left me at bit of a loss. Blame that for my lack of firm conclusions below. If you'll pardon the expression, I was rather barking up the wrong tree for most of the day.
Farael: Farael shifted slightly from his single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil and suggested that we should lynch littlemanpoet because that might give us information about Aiwendil. I agreed that littlemanpoet should be lynched because I thought that he was a Wolf. And, if he had been a Wolf, I would have been looking at Farael as one of his conspirators. I'm not sure what Farael's suggestion to vote for lmp tells us about him, or his Aiwendil theory, now. I need to think about that some more.
Mormegil: I considered mormegil's votes earlier today. Essentially, he has been centrally involved in the lynching of two known innocents. That's suspicious, but by no means conclusive. He continues to be rather unusually quiet. I did have the feeling that, if littlemanpoet was a Wolf, mormegil was probably innocent. I will now have to go back and see if the opposite is true, as I thought it might be. Possibly one to watch for the future.
Aiwendil: As far as I can see, his only real misdemeanour is his Day 1 Seer talk. And that, as I have said, is much less of an indicator of possible guilt than it was in the past two days, since so much more has happened since then. I am not setting too much store in the fact that he suspects me, as I expected to be under suspicion for much the same reason that he outlined today. I think that he is just over-analysing and drawing the wrong conclusion and have no other real reason to suspect him at this stage.
Glirdan: I have been giving him the benefit of the doubt for now, based on his early votes. But I would like to start hearing a lot more from him. Still coming across as innocent to me, though.
Formendacil: Very quiet, but he explained why. I'm going to have to reserve judgment on him for now. Still, illness or no illness (and my sympathies, by the way), I can't keep reserving judgment on him for ever ...
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: Has, like Farael, become rather single-minded in her pursuit of Eomer and is therefore becoming difficult to get a handle on. While I think that she has made some good points, I can also see the sense in what Eomer said in response. Until she settled on her case against Eomer, she too was merely raising suspicions without following them through.
Nilpaurion Felagund: Has not contributed today, but explained why on the village noticeboard. Whatever you may think of think of how I got there, I still think him likely to be innocent. If he's not, he
will be punished ...
Eomer of the Rohirrim: I set out my thoughts on Eomer earlier. I stand by them, but he makes a fair point about spawn. And there is little else against either of them.
Kath: Her quietness was troubling me. Has now contributed with a major summary of Day 1's events (and more to follow). While that's helpful in it's way, it doesn't really tell us much about her. On the assumption that there is a quiet Wolf (not necessarily a safe assumption, admittedly), she was looking to be the obvious candidate and I think that still holds, as her summary gives us very little information on the way that she is thinking. She has voted for a known innocent, and did not vote yesterday. While I acknowledge her explanation for that, I just don't like "no-votes" since they reduce the amount of information available to work on.
Garin: Garin's early vote for Boro is a concern. My reason for thinking him likely to be innocent was that he was looking very suspicious, which is how Garin always looks. I will have to go back and look at what he has said in more detail, but I am not inclined to vote for him today.
Celuien: She was looking very suspicious to me yesterday and has said nothing today. That might be regarded as suspicious, but I can't help thinking that a Wolf would have been more involved.
Tar-Ancalime: I had been regarding her as a likely innocent because Holby voted for her and then died. Spawn makes the point that this may have alerted a Wolfish tar and her fellow fiends to Holby being the Seer. Or maybe that was to stop us looking more closely at spawn, given that Eomer had noted a possible connection between them. I still think that it would have been too risky for a Wolfish tar to kill Holby but, then again, this has actually served to take the heat off her somewhat. She has contributed today without saying too much, if you get my meaning, but that's probably understandable in the circumstances. I am not sure about tar, but I am less inclined now to regard her as a probable innocent.
Boromir88: My thoughts about Boro, as they developed today, hinged on lmp being a Wolf. They both went strongly against each other at the beginning and then backed off each other considerably. I am not sure how lmp's innocence affects this, but I am still inclined to trust Boro. His understanding of lmp's predicament speaks considerably in his favour.
To summarise, as I did yesterday:
Main suspects: None really now.
Making me nervous: Farael, mormegil, spawn, Eomer, Kath, tar-ancalime
Just don’t know: Formendacil, Garin, Celuin
Probably innocent: Aiwendil, Glirdan, Nilp, Boro
I will have to vote soon. At the moment, though, I am in a bit of a quandary.
