The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

littlemanpoet · 02-24-2006, 11:46 PM

I see SPM's post #250 addresses some of the same things I've been finding.

After having read through many, many posts, I've arrived at the following conclusions. The following individuals are clearly innocent based on their thoroughgoing contributions:

Innocent:
SPM
Boromir
Tar-ancalime
Spawn
Aiwendil

The following individuals are probably innocent, based on their less than thoroughgoing contributions.

Probably innocent:
Celuien (reasoned and helpful - the seer issue is a red herring)
Farael (forthright and trying to do his part)
Formendacil (harder to say, but his defense for Day 1 voting seemed reasonable and persuasive)
Glirdan (started to seem suspicious at first, but began to seem more helpful and contributing)
Kath (on the strength of believing in me)
Mormegil (I would have him on the 'clearly' list except that he accused for one person then voted for another on Day 2)

That leaves three individuals about whom I have not been able to conclude clear or probable innocence:

Suspicious:
Garin
Eomer
Nilpaurion Felagund

1. Whom have the known innocents suspected besides each other?

Lhunardawen: Garin, Tar-ancalime (2)
Anguirel: Boromir (2)
Holbytlas: Tar-ancalime (1)

This was not as helpful as I had hoped.

2. Who has defended whom? ....are there any patterns?

Celuien gives a reasoned defense of Aiwendil against Farael. The defenses are all reasoned. Not much help here.

3. Who has accused whom? .... are there any patterns?

Yes. The primary pattern is that the werewolves have been able to avoid the spotlight because of all the accusations flying. The werewolves, I believe, have not accused anybody. Except for in one case: Spawn's post # 190, in which she sifts through Eomer's words, revealing a lot of dicey stuff. See point 9 below.

4. Who has voted for whom? .... any patterns?

-Eomer's Day 1 vote for Lhuna came 2nd after the trusted SPM's; safe - meanwhile his reasoning is, shall we say, dubious. Eomer's Day 2 vote for Lhuna also came 2nd, after Glirdan's.
-Garin's vote for Boromir was 3rd out of 4; as suspicious as possible, if anything can actually be told from such votes; by itself, it means little. Taken with other evidence, it helps to reveal Garin's possible furriness.
-Nilp voted for Farael on Day 1. It is likely that one of the werewolves did cast the first and only vote for someone. On Day 2 Nilp voted for the innocent and now killed Anguirel. Having voted during the Day for the man you decide to kill that Night is perhaps a potentially costly mistake.

5. Who has suspected someone then backed off? Why?

SPM is declaring in no uncertain terms that I'm a werewolf. If he fails to vote for me, he should be suspected.

6. Who has built up a case against someone then switched to vote for another?

Mormegil built up a case against me on Day 2 then voted for the known innocent Lhuna. However, he has otherwise shown himself to be a helpful villager, contributing in his usual in depth fashion.

7. Who has tried to appear helpful without being?

Eomer. See point 9.

8. Who is riding others' waves?

No one enough, not even my three suspects, except perhaps in voting.

9. Who is playing both sides against the middle?

-Garin, as I have described earlier.
-Eomer: "I guess anything can be construed as wolvish." "Formy but probably not Formy." "Morm but probably not Morm; please explain, sir." See Spawn's post #190.

10. Who's choices for innocent and suspicious seem dubious?

-SPM's and Celuien's suspicion of Tar's vote of Eomer seems a bit dubious.
-Eomer's suspicions of Spawn, Tar, and Morm seem dubious ... to me; for those individuals seem reasonable, helpful, and innocent.
-Glirdan's post #
130 looks rather suspicious, especially in retrospect. Lhuna is "Definitely at the top of my list." .... to lynch? That is my only suspicion against Glirdan.

11. Who asks questions the answers of which help the werewolves?

Aiwendil in post # 7, question #1; answers to this question aid the werewolves in knowing what not to do. On the other hand, his other 2 points are good ones.

12. Who defends self too much?

-Celuien's "joking" defense against Morm's random accusations, placing the eye of suspicion on tar & Ang (who is innocent)
-Me.
-Eomer's defense (in post # 205) against Spawn's accusation (#190) seems rather shrill.

General observations.

1. Nilp is not suicidal; that in itself is suspicious!

2. Eomer's assertion that werewolves are going to be timid is mildly suspicious, and effectively countered by the innocent Anguirel.

3. SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?

4. SPM's litmus test against "seer talk" is looking more and more arbitrary the further we get into this holocaust. (EDIT: sorry, just noticed this is duplicated by point # 8)

5. When people are accused/suspected by more than one fellow villager, the likelihood of "getting defensive" seems to increase exponentially with each additional suspector. This is human nature. We should be more suspicious of someone who is too smooth.

6. Aiwendil's suspicions of tar-ancalime call into question my general sense that she's trying to do her part as an innocent. I still think he's reading too much into her posts, because she has contributed solid discussion.

7. Boromir's post #113 is solid, very solid. We all would do well to 'textbook' it for the rest of this holocaust....except for his suspicions of me, of course.

8. It's looking clearer and clearer to me that the "seer" discussion as a litmus test is a red herring and should be treated as such, especially since I find those in Boro's post #116 list as the top suspects in that regard, not to be very suspicious at all.

9. Nilp's post # 123 analysis of Day 1 vote looks reasonable on the surface, but seems flimsy upon retrospect.

10. I have never found the voting record by itself to be a persuasive tool for judging guilt or innocence, at least not until very late in the game, because there are simply too many possible variables and reasons for a person to vote for someone else, especially those "most incriminating" votes. Frankly, it seems that SPM's public service to the rest of us is more a mind-game he does for the fun of it than being useful; how many times as he been accurate in his resulting suspicions based on those voting record deductions?

11. Why does Glirdan answer Aiwendil's questions on how to catch a werewolf so late? I think it was Spawn who suggested (rightly) that such a question (#1) is more help to the werewolves than the innocents.

In Conclusion: I believe that the three who fall under my suspicious category are very likely our three werewolves. This has been by process of elimination, after reading all the way through to post #138, by which time I had arrived at my working hypothesis as to who was either clearly or probably innocent. That left three individuals unaccounted for. I was already rather familiar with Garin's posts, and Nilp's, but not Eomer's; so I went back and read his, and discovered a lot of the same points Spawn made.

02-24-2006, 11:46 PM	#256
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	I see SPM's post #250 addresses some of the same things I've been finding. After having read through many, many posts, I've arrived at the following conclusions. The following individuals are clearly innocent based on their thoroughgoing contributions: Innocent: SPM Boromir Tar-ancalime Spawn Aiwendil The following individuals are probably innocent, based on their less than thoroughgoing contributions. Probably innocent: Celuien (reasoned and helpful - the seer issue is a red herring) Farael (forthright and trying to do his part) Formendacil (harder to say, but his defense for Day 1 voting seemed reasonable and persuasive) Glirdan (started to seem suspicious at first, but began to seem more helpful and contributing) Kath (on the strength of believing in me) Mormegil (I would have him on the 'clearly' list except that he accused for one person then voted for another on Day 2) That leaves three individuals about whom I have not been able to conclude clear or probable innocence: Suspicious: Garin Eomer Nilpaurion Felagund 1. Whom have the known innocents suspected besides each other? Lhunardawen: Garin, Tar-ancalime (2) Anguirel: Boromir (2) Holbytlas: Tar-ancalime (1) This was not as helpful as I had hoped. 2. Who has defended whom? ....are there any patterns? Celuien gives a reasoned defense of Aiwendil against Farael. The defenses are all reasoned. Not much help here. 3. Who has accused whom? .... are there any patterns? Yes. The primary pattern is that the werewolves have been able to avoid the spotlight because of all the accusations flying. The werewolves, I believe, have not accused anybody. Except for in one case: Spawn's post # 190, in which she sifts through Eomer's words, revealing a lot of dicey stuff. See point 9 below. 4. Who has voted for whom? .... any patterns? -Eomer's Day 1 vote for Lhuna came 2nd after the trusted SPM's; safe - meanwhile his reasoning is, shall we say, dubious. Eomer's Day 2 vote for Lhuna also came 2nd, after Glirdan's. -Garin's vote for Boromir was 3rd out of 4; as suspicious as possible, if anything can actually be told from such votes; by itself, it means little. Taken with other evidence, it helps to reveal Garin's possible furriness. -Nilp voted for Farael on Day 1. It is likely that one of the werewolves did cast the first and only vote for someone. On Day 2 Nilp voted for the innocent and now killed Anguirel. Having voted during the Day for the man you decide to kill that Night is perhaps a potentially costly mistake. 5. Who has suspected someone then backed off? Why? SPM is declaring in no uncertain terms that I'm a werewolf. If he fails to vote for me, he should be suspected. 6. Who has built up a case against someone then switched to vote for another? Mormegil built up a case against me on Day 2 then voted for the known innocent Lhuna. However, he has otherwise shown himself to be a helpful villager, contributing in his usual in depth fashion. 7. Who has tried to appear helpful without being? Eomer. See point 9. 8. Who is riding others' waves? No one enough, not even my three suspects, except perhaps in voting. 9. Who is playing both sides against the middle? -Garin, as I have described earlier. -Eomer: "I guess anything can be construed as wolvish." "Formy but probably not Formy." "Morm but probably not Morm; please explain, sir." See Spawn's post #190. 10. Who's choices for innocent and suspicious seem dubious? -SPM's and Celuien's suspicion of Tar's vote of Eomer seems a bit dubious. -Eomer's suspicions of Spawn, Tar, and Morm seem dubious ... to me; for those individuals seem reasonable, helpful, and innocent. -Glirdan's post # 130 looks rather suspicious, especially in retrospect. Lhuna is "Definitely at the top of my list." .... to lynch? That is my only suspicion against Glirdan. 11. Who asks questions the answers of which help the werewolves? Aiwendil in post # 7, question #1; answers to this question aid the werewolves in knowing what not to do. On the other hand, his other 2 points are good ones. 12. Who defends self too much? -Celuien's "joking" defense against Morm's random accusations, placing the eye of suspicion on tar & Ang (who is innocent) -Me. -Eomer's defense (in post # 205) against Spawn's accusation (#190) seems rather shrill. General observations. 1. Nilp is not suicidal; that in itself is suspicious! 2. Eomer's assertion that werewolves are going to be timid is mildly suspicious, and effectively countered by the innocent Anguirel. 3. SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean? 4. SPM's litmus test against "seer talk" is looking more and more arbitrary the further we get into this holocaust. (EDIT: sorry, just noticed this is duplicated by point # 8) 5. When people are accused/suspected by more than one fellow villager, the likelihood of "getting defensive" seems to increase exponentially with each additional suspector. This is human nature. We should be more suspicious of someone who is too smooth. 6. Aiwendil's suspicions of tar-ancalime call into question my general sense that she's trying to do her part as an innocent. I still think he's reading too much into her posts, because she has contributed solid discussion. 7. Boromir's post #113 is solid, very solid. We all would do well to 'textbook' it for the rest of this holocaust....except for his suspicions of me, of course. 8. It's looking clearer and clearer to me that the "seer" discussion as a litmus test is a red herring and should be treated as such, especially since I find those in Boro's post #116 list as the top suspects in that regard, not to be very suspicious at all. 9. Nilp's post # 123 analysis of Day 1 vote looks reasonable on the surface, but seems flimsy upon retrospect. 10. I have never found the voting record by itself to be a persuasive tool for judging guilt or innocence, at least not until very late in the game, because there are simply too many possible variables and reasons for a person to vote for someone else, especially those "most incriminating" votes. Frankly, it seems that SPM's public service to the rest of us is more a mind-game he does for the fun of it than being useful; how many times as he been accurate in his resulting suspicions based on those voting record deductions? 11. Why does Glirdan answer Aiwendil's questions on how to catch a werewolf so late? I think it was Spawn who suggested (rightly) that such a question (#1) is more help to the werewolves than the innocents. In Conclusion: I believe that the three who fall under my suspicious category are very likely our three werewolves. This has been by process of elimination, after reading all the way through to post #138, by which time I had arrived at my working hypothesis as to who was either clearly or probably innocent. That left three individuals unaccounted for. I was already rather familiar with Garin's posts, and Nilp's, but not Eomer's; so I went back and read his, and discovered a lot of the same points Spawn made. Last edited by littlemanpoet; 02-24-2006 at 11:54 PM.