[Aiwendil]

Post 22 - Tar-ancalime's infamous "moratorium on Seer talk" proposal. She says:

I'd like to propose a moratorium on Seer talk--we can't know who is true until one of them dies, and the longer we wait the more information we'll get. So let's play as though neither of them is here.

In post 35, she responds to Lhunardawen thus:

While it's always wise to suspect those who disagree with me (and it's a method I often employ, in Gaurhoth as in life), I wouldn't go that far here, Lhuna. I don't want to create any kind of cut-and-dried loyalty-oath-like environment: those are the easiest situations for wolves to wriggle out of.

YesterDAY, I said this looked like a wolf maneuvering. I still think it could be. But as I read and consider post 22 more carefully, it seems to me that it could just as easily - perhaps more easily - be nothing more than what it is at face value. That is, that Tar never intended the "moratorium" to be a platform from which to begin a wolf-hunt.

Post 44 - Agrees with SPM that too much seer talk can only help the wolves. But then says that early seer talk might be helpful later. One might call this a flip flop (eh, Farael?). But, though I think Tar does mildly contradict herself here, it doesn't seem a particularly Wolvish tactic in this case.

What worries me more is from later in this post:

Something about dancing spawn's post really rubs me the wrong way. It's so long, so intricate, and so devoid of any new information. Being as it's the first day and all, and as my vote is going to have to come in the next few hours, unless I see anything that compels me to place my vote elsewhere I'm likely to go with the dancing spider.

I can see nothing in the analysis by Dancing Spawn to which Tar was responding that suggests wolvishness. Surely we're all familiar with the "go through the villagers one by one" style of discussion - so what's so strange about it here? Tar's comment still looks to me like it could be a Wolf's attempt toget some suspicion rolling against Spawn.

In the next few posts, no one seemed particularly inclined to agree that Spawn's analysis was suspicious. And in post 50, Tar backs off:

dancing spawn, you had me at "gather my thoughts." I can certainly understand that, and while my vote today is going to be somewhat random no matter what, I would rather not cast it for you.

This is just the move I'd expect from a wolf when a subtle attempt at casting suspicion has failed.

Then we have Tar's vote for Eomer. As others have observed, this could be a random DAY 1 vote. And of course "it was a random DAY 1 vote" is the perfect cover for a wolf.

Post 124 - Tar suspects something wolvish may have been going on in the Boromir campaign. Here, I'm in complete agreement with her. Which makes me wonder a bit whether I'm being duped. But in my opinion there definitely was something strange about the Boromir campaign, so it seems perfectly innocent to comment on it.

Post 161 - Defends herself against various suspicions. Not much to go on here.

Post 172 - Agrees with Eomer that "the four most likely suspects for the day" seem to be Garin, LMP, Boromir, and she herself. She doesn't see anything particularly suspicious about LMP or Boromir; against she defends herself; she says that Garin seems to be deliberately obscuring things and then votes for him.

While I disagree about LMP not being suspicious, I do quite agree about Garin. This seems like either the well-reasonsed argument of an innocent or a wolf playing it somewhat safe.

So, where does this leave me? For what it's worth, Tar isn't looking as suspicious to me anymore. The only point that still sticks out, in my opinion, is the abortive attack on Spawn. Tar is definitely still worth keeping an eye on, but I don't think she's as likely to be a wolf as Garin or Formendacil.