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Old 02-22-2006, 07:04 PM   #125
The Saucepan Man
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Join Date: Jan 2003
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The Saucepan Man has been trapped in the Barrow!
Silmaril

OK, my thoughts on the voting.

First off, I too found it strange that Boromir88 accumulated so many votes. I saw nothing in him yesterday to attract particular suspicion. Elempi seemed particularly aggressive in his desire to see Boro lynched. More reason still to keep an eye on him.

But my main suspicions arise from the votes cast yesterday for Gil-Galad. I am not sure how he became such a prime suspect. His reaction vote for Glirdan worried me at first, but when I considered it further it seemed to me to be a most un-Wolfish thing to do. It was bound to draw attention, so why would a Wolf do it? And there was nothing else to go on, other than the fact that he was quiet. But that is standard behaviour for Gil.

The following voted for him (in order): Glirdan, mormegil, Kath, Celuin and Boromir88.

I am still inclined to view Glirdan's early vote for Gil as being too risky for a Wolf, given that Gil was quite likely to be in the running to be lynched (as indeed he was).

Boro's vote could go either way. I should perhaps correct a seemingly general misapprehension. Boro did not have to vote for Gil to save himself. He voted last, at a time when he and Gil were tied on four votes each. Had he voted differently, Gil would still have been lynched because there are no double lynchings and Gil received the first vote. But in those circumstances, wouldn't a Wolfish Boro simply have "throw away" his vote, especially when he claimed to have other suspects, rather than voting for Gil? On the other hand, perhaps he felt that a vote for Gil would look more innocent as he could claim that he had no choice (which is precisely what he did). So Boro's vote for Gil could go either way for me.

To my mind, the most suspicious votes for Gil are those in between. Gil was an easy target, especially as he already had one vote. Perhaps the Wolves thought they could avoid the noose if they promoted him as a candidate. Or perhaps one of them had attracted some votes and was at risk of being lynched.

Mormegil's vote put Gil equal with Glirdan and Boro on two votes each.
Kath's vote put him one ahead of Glirdan, Boro and Lhuna, on three votes.
Celuin put him two ahead of Glirdan, Boro, Lhuna and tar-ancalime, making him the clear favourite for the noose.

I suspect that there is one Wolf (although probably no more) among those three Gil voters. And there could well also be a Wolf among those who were potentially saved by those votes. I am inclined, for now, to think Glirdan and tar innocent and I am unsure about Boro. Which leaves Lhuna, my prime suspect from yesterday. But would a Wolfish Lhuna kill Holby, who cast suspicion on her yesterday? Possibly. If she is a Wolf, she was a bold one yesterday.

So, my current suspects (and in no particular order as matters stand): mormegil, Kath, Celuin, elempi and Lhuna.

I will review Holby's posts from yesterday and the contributions made already today. But it is getting late in my part of the village ( ), so I may not be back until later today (RL: tomorrow).
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