Okay, this is a style of analysis that I have found helpful in the past - by briefly summarizing and commenting on each post, nothing is taken out of context and patterns become more evident. The problem is that it is only really helpful if there is real substance and amount to people's posts; it didn't reveal much about Eonwe or Elu, but Valier's turned up some interesting things.
Eonwe:
Post 13
Nothing very helpful, nothing particularly wolvish. He scorns Day 1 strategies.
Post 27
Repetition that Day 1 sucks. Once more, nothing here.
Post 49
Votes Jenny on what he calls gut instinct, but at least not randomly. He says she feels like a new wolf to him.
Post 57
He clarifies his vote for Jenny, says that she changes her opinion around too much to fit others’ ideas and suspicions. A repetition that Day 1 won’t be very useful. Okay, I can’t really blame him here since these are similar feelings to what I was feeling about Jenny.
Post 60
One line post, nothing there again.
Post 78
Explains that he had a feeling Lommy would die during the night. Hm…
Post 88
Agrees that Lommy made a lot of sense for the wolves to go after. Says that his suspicions were turning toward Roa and Jenny as they had voted for Wilwa.
Post 96
Continues his reasoning for his suspicions of Jenny, says he intends to vote for her. Says that Folwren, Mith, and myself all look pretty good to him.
Post 99
Explains to Jenny that his suspicion of her is not based on her silence.
Objectively looking at these posts… there really doesn’t seem to be that much there. Nothing to support my suspicions of him anyway. The real founder of my suspicions of him and Nogrod was a possibility of some kind of wolvish alliance, and I haven’t entirely given that up – especially since Nogrod seemed so suspicious of him on into Day 2, but all of a sudden that seems to have gone out the window without any indication of an in-between stage. But other than that, there really isn’t very much there, and what is there seems supportive of his innocence. For the time being, Eonwe is on my emerging in-between list.
Elu:
Post 9
Jokes about were-birds.
[Has computer troubles, does not post again till Day 2]
Post 81
Starts to comment about how he thought Lommy was behaving oddly, then descends into more speculation about were-birds.
Post 84
Says he appreciated my analysis, but that we had to be careful in discriminating fact from bias.
Post 86
Regrets Valier’s inconsistency and frothiness.
Post 90
Although he says that he wouldn’t outright accuse Jenny, he votes for her, mostly for her silence that day, despite her warning. This is irritating but not exactly suspicious.
Once again, there really isn’t anything here. Nothing to prove his innocence or guilt. He’s just sort of all over the place, and Roa’s description in Post 144 is sticking with me.
Valier:
Post 4
“I can’t believe Kitanna is dead!!” pretty well sums up this post.
Post 8
Says we should focus on catching wolves and that people should speak up (but with lots more exclamation points).
Post 34
Says that people who post lengthy analyses tend to get lynched faster and that’s why she doesn’t. This would be extremely harmful to us, and definitely raises warning bells in my head, or it would if it wasn’t accompanied by so many exclamation points and big grin smilies.
Post 39
Says that other people are better communicators than she is, advises against bandwagoning.
Post 41
Votes randomly for Elu because “his music stinks.”
Post 87
See post 4… plus a comment that it’s time to get down to business.
Post 100-101
Analysis: Jenny – probably innocent, maybe cunning wolf; Eonwe – probably innocent, she agrees with most of his posts; Sleepy – she wants to see more of him; Roa – no real opinion, apologizes for frothiness; Nogrod – no real verdict; Elu – she says his posts are weird; Gandalf – she wonders if we shouldn’t just lynch him to be on the safe side in case he’s trying to slip under the radar; Folwren – Valier was rather insulted by her wondering if it was her first time playing, she seems to be getting frustrated at others’ frustrations for her frothiness – I quote: “IT WAS THE FIRST DAY!!!”; Mithalwen – again, no real verdict, says she has nothing to hide. This post sort of has me wondering. It seems innocent enough but what catches my eye is that she only makes a judgment about the people who are not suspicious of her. Also, perhaps by oversight, her list is not complete – I for one am not on it.
Post 103
Complains about how little of substance there is, says she will be voting soon.
Post 106
Says the key players are Mithalwen, Folwren, Roa, and myself. Votes Mithalwen for no apparent reason except that she thinks she is a clever wolf. This seems strange to me, that you would identify key players and then vote for one of them. The loudest people aren’t necessarily the wolves.
Post 116 & 119
Begs us not to kill her. Promises to do a dance if we don’t. This, I think, is a little over the top…
Post 122
“Ok kill me then you will see! I may be a bit "Frothy" but I have no hidden fur!” Maybe, maybe not.
Post 138
Thinks Gandalf should be penalized for not voting two nights in a row. Now she claims that the key players are most often loud innocents – so why the heck did she vote for Mithalwen?? She thinks it’s odd that Mithalwen hasn’t defended herself, even though she has made no real accusations against her except voting randomly. She says it’s important not to make a mistake so we should vote for someone who has posted a fair bit – didn’t she just say that the loud ones were often innocent? Now this is what I would call contradicting. Essentially she seems to be proposing that we lynch the louder ones because they are loud. It reminds me nothing so much as the little story here:
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...62&postcount=1 Sorry if that’s slightly irrelevant.
Post 149
Thinks Jenny, Nogrod, me, Elu, and Gandalf are innocent while Eonwe, Mithalwen, and Roa are not. Is very vague about why. In fact, I would really like to know why she finds Mithalwen so suspicious – I have yet to see a reason other than that Mithalwen was the first to call her frothy.
After doing this, I have become quite suspicious of Valier. I can’t really tell if she’s a sloppy wolf or just frothy and rather… inept? It seems entirely possible to me that if she’s a wolf she wants to attack the loudmouths because the other two wolves are both quiet ones.
I'm not even going to bother doing this for Gandalf - he only has about three insubstantial posts. It may be useful to do with Jenny though.
Oh, and Roa, I'm a she. Also, I'm agreeing very much with what you're saying... Nogrod seems pretty determined right now to paint you as a wolf.