Nogrod - first off, a very fair post. It does alleviate some of my suspicion for you (not that there's that much. The line between suspicious people and innocent people is very fine. There just hasn't been enough to judge from).
I'm not really blaming you for choosing Sleepy; I just meant that I would have done differently. It stands to reason that different people are going to have different opinions and suspicions, as well as different ideas about how the wolves will play. You did what you did; now we move on.
As for my "safe" list - as I said earlier, that line is very fine. But I am trying to narrow it down to focus on a smaller number of individuals, and so far both Roa and Mithalwen have consistently seemed genuinely helpful. I have been able to follow all of their arguments and decisions. They just do not seem guilty to me; not much has changed with those two since I posted my analysis on early Day 2.
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on what actual grounds do you draw the line between propable innocense for THREE villagers (just accidentally the number of the wolves...)
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Um, do you really think that if I was a wolf I would be so foolish to put my fellow wolves on my innocent list? I would call any wolf that did that brave, stupid, or both.
Just to clarify... I was not saying that the seer should come out. I was exploring the possibility, trying to figure out our best chance to catch a wolf would be. The way I was looking at it, if the seer knew three living innocents, plus themself, that would leave us with only five unknowns with three of those five being wolves. Considerably better odds. However, with our ranger being gone, we would also be guaranteed to lose our seer during the night. Look at my wording again: "I
might almost see some validity in the seer revealing themselves." I wasn't arguing for it, just putting an idea out there. But also to the seer: if you are about to be lynched today - don't let it happen. That would be the worst thing, for us to lynch our seer. Or if it's too late, don't go without telling us who your dreams were - please...
I definitely do agree with you about your point of if one of our lesser contributing members is seer... you'll have to race me to strangle them...
At any rate, Nogrod, you are seeming a lot more sensible and I'm following you a lot better today than I have been. I probably won't be voting for you tonight. As an aside, my vote should come at a much more convenient time toDay, with it being the weekend. I should be able to vote much closer to the deadline than I have been.
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The wolves will not propably dare to vote for each other this day. And if no wolf is being threatened, they propably split their vote. But if even one of them is strongly suspected, they will make a defence; if even one of them is voted, you'll soon see a couple of votes to someone else (or a second to someone that already has one vote) appear. If things keeps tight, the wolwes just can't afford staying out of the climax this evening... So we'll have to be there too: as many of us that just can.
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I have to disagree with you on this one. The odds are looking very good for the wolves right now. I would not be surprised if the wolves did dare to go after their own today if it seemed necessary. It seems to me that the most obvious way for a wolf to reveal themselves is to try and save a fellow wolf, especially while the game is running strongly in their favor.