[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Interesting post, Sauce. I see we have been thinking about the same thing yesterday.

From the voting patterns of DAY 1 and 2--this was before I saw the results of DAY 3--there were two groups of two people that leapt to me. Yes, they really did.

Note this (known innocents in underline):

DAY 1
1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. WaynetheGoblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

DAY 2
1. Nilpaurion for malkatoj (malkatoj -1)
2. Malkatoj for Kath (malkatoj -1, Kath -1)
3. Valier for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1)
4. Mormegil for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1)
5. SpM for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1)
6. TGWBS for Naria (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1, Naria -1)
7. Spawn for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1)
8. Formendacil for SpM (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
9. Cailin for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
10. Kath for Valier (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
11. Shelob for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
12. Garin for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -3, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)

Block A: Kath - Garin

DAY 1: Garin votes for Valier
Kath seals Abercrombie's fate.

DAY 2: Kath votes for Valier
Garin seals Shelob's fate.

NIGHT 3: Valier is killed by the Werewolves.

Block B: Glirdan - Formendacil

DAY 1: Form votes for Valier (well, this is irrelevant)
Glirdan votes for SpM

DAY 2: Form votes for SpM for 'controlling the game.'
Glirdan is silent.

DAY 3: The attack on Sauce commences. One of the loudmouths (in this case, Cailín) saw him 'controlling the game.' Glirdan votes for SpM. The attempt fails, and blame is shifted to the loudmouth who 'orchestrated' the attack (i.e., Cailín), despite the fact that the attack has already started from DAY 2.

Block B is still unconvincing for me. Hmmm, but does mormegil's attack on Cailín fit the second scenario? . . . No, his attack on her began even before she pointed at Sauce.

Okay, I'll be back in a few hours for more thoughts and a vote.

Don't change the channel!