NIGHT deaths, DAY votes, and reasons for such things. Innocents in underline.
NIGHT 1
Meneltarmacil - moderator
Because.
DAY 1
Form: I'm voting for
++ Valier. Queen Beruthiel must go!
Wayne:
++FORMENDACIL
I didnt vote for him for his early vote but for the person he voted for.
I voted for him because you never know what someone is going to be.
Nilp:
++Nilp. Who else?
Valier:
++Wayne. Well I just have to say I don't like wimps, or nerds or well most things besides lovely coconuts.(Giggle) The Goblin must go! (Giggle)
Abercrombie: Best go with the one that has already provided "conclusive" evidence of his guilt:
++NILPAURION FELAGUND
Cailín:
++WAYNETHEGOBLIN. Your vote for Formendacil and your defensiveness doesn't sit right with me.
morm:
++Valier. If for no other reason than the giggling and to get things moving a bit.
SpM: For her rather forceful reaction to my pressing her for evidence and for naming easy targets before going on to cast what I consider to be a "safe" vote (at least for today) for someone else, I will cast my vote for:
++ABERCROMBIEOFROHAN
daga'y: WHY MUST YOU PEOPLE PERSIST IN PERSECUTING THE POOR NUTTER [
Nilp]?
++ABERCROMBIEOFROHAN. I was suspicious before, but
SpM's comments distilled that suspicion.
Garin: Well, I am slightly inclined towards
Abercrombie but the coin tells me to vote for Valier. If this turns out to be wrong you can lynch the coin.
++Valier
spawn: If your best is to vote for someone who said he won't be here during the rest of the Day and who is a safe vote because the odds are that he won't be lynched today, I'd like to know what is your worst. Besides, you said you didn't want to vote for Wayne because he already had one vote. Why did you then want to vote for
Nilp although he, too, had one vote?
Well, I'll make a tie between
Abercrombie and
Valier. Let's see how others react to that.
++Abercrombie
Aiwendil: I can't say I see much reason to think that either [
Valier or
Abercrombie] is a wolf, but then (it being early) I don't have much reason to think that anyone in particular is a wolf. As I indicated before, I am very slightly inclined to think
Abercrombie more likely to be guilty. Therefore:
++AbercrombieofRohan
Kath: As far as I've got it is spawn that seems to stand out as innocent, so I'm going to accept her ideas about Crombie. I've not seen anyone I've really wanted to vote for toDay, but those points about her flipflopping around are persuasive.
++ABERCROMBIE OF ROHAN
Shelob: I don't want to bandwagon (vote for
Aber) and I don't want to tie it (vote for
Valier) so I'm just going to vote for the person I have the worst feeling for right now, and that's still:
++Garin
malka: So after reading everything over, I think our best bet for today would be to lynch either
Gil or
Wayne. Though we can't know if they're wolves, they are distracting and it'd be better to have them out of the way before we get to a point where there's real evidence. Since I'm almost sure that
Wayne is just being
Wayne, I'm more inclined to worry about
Gil, as either a cobbler or a wolf.
++WAYNE THE GOBLIN for reasons I explained earlier.
Glirdan:
++Saucepan Man. Simply because something about him is not sitting right with me. I also don't want to be a part of a bandwagon and I don't want to cause a double lynch.
Naria: Sorry if you're an ordo....you just too crazzzy!!
++Nilp
NIGHT 2
Aiwendil - innocent
Cailín says: He seemed quite keen on voting records and hoped, along with most of us, voting would tell us something tomorrow. He neither thought
Abercrombie nor
Valier particularly guilty, but saw some sense in
Saucy's reasoning. He thought
Glirdan’s
Form -
Wayne -
Valier connection-theory sounded interesting. Nothing that points to Seerism or any other Gift. I think he was killed because he seemed intelligent and would likely become a danger to the wolves later on, and because he did not really accuse anyone, but rather chose to wait till more evidence was available.
DAY 2
Nilp:
malka, and her vote for
Wayne.. With four votes left, was she perhaps pushing for a tie?
++malkatoj
malka: I think the people who voted for
Abercrombie should be payed close attention to. That's
SpM,
TGWBS,
Spawn,
Aiwendil, and
Kath. I'm most suspicious of the last three, since their votes (a) are easy, since there's already suspicion there, and (b) set
Crombie's death in stone.
++KATH
Valier: My suspisions of
Garin I think are the most pressing on my mind for this day. He makes me nervous,with not knowing if he's a wolf or not...but today I do believe he is a wolf,His posting pattern is completely off, He needs to go sooner than later!
++Garin
morm: I haven't been able to read all yet but I find it interesting that
Cailin attacks me, mildly, but still attacks because I haven't mentioned
Spawn before. I think I have at one point but I'm not suspicious of her so why mention her? Also there are many others I haven't mentioned.
Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.
++Cailin
SpM:
++SHELOB. To summarise, she seems to be trying to be present without committing herself too much - to be contributing without saying anything useful - which seems out of character to me. And I am somewhat swayed by the fact that others (who I currently have no particular reason to suspect) feel the same way.
daga'y: These are the seriously "safe" votes, votes unlikely to affect the outcome, apathetic votes that show little interest in divining innocence. In short, condemnable votes.
I think I'll go for
Naria to give a wide range of possibilities for those still to vote, making it harder for wolves to hide. And I did warn those who vote for
Nilp...
++NARIA
spawn:
Shelob preferred random accusations to evidence, but since
Sauce wanted reasoned posts, she decided to sit back and stay out of the conversation. Also, her vote for
Garin seemed at least to me like a safe choice.
"It won't help today at all, but it beats a bandwagon or a tie." ~
Shelob about her vote.
Besides, both options are generally considered as suspicious, right...?
Shelob also defended
Kath and
Glirdan.
++SHELOB
Form:
++ The Saucepan Man, for trying to take control.
Cai: Now
Garin does look suspicious in my eyes. He mostly just agrees with
Saucy and
Morm, which is always clever because they are likely people to bring up a case against you. His coin flipping sounds a little weird. First he is inclined to vote
Marcolie, then - after
Mormegil’s vote - wishes to vote for
Valier and after
SpM’s vote he’s suddenly more convinced of
Abercrombie (as he said, he merely voted
Valier because of the coin). ToDay he was eager to not be under suspicion by pointing out isolated votes are more suspicious than voting for innocents.
++GARIN
Kath: I would say the person who has voted with the least reason is Valier, and because of that:
++VALIER
Shelob: since I don't really want to die. Vote:
++Cailin
Garin:
++Shelob Sorry, dear but better you than me/
NIGHT 3
Valier - Innocent
Sauce says: I find it quite bizarre. I would not have expected one of the quieter, less analytical (by her own admission) villagers to be the night's victim. Perhaps the Wolves are counting on the fact that, if they give the "loudmouths" enough rope, they will hang themselves. Indeed, the gathering murmurs against me suggest that they might be onto something there. But more of that later. A few possible reasons why the Wolves may have targetted
Valier. They are no doubt trying to find the Seer and the Hunter [edit: Ranger]. The most likely reason for her death, therefore, is that they thought her to be either one of these. I suggest we all go back and look carefully at what she said, but I can think of nothing offhand which she said which might have been construed as a hint. So the only thing I can think of that might have made them think her a Seer is that she strongly identifed a Wolf. Which looks bad for
Garin, whom she attacked pretty much single-mindedly yesterday, and to a lesser extent
Wayne (in the event that both
Garin and
Wayne are Wolves and they thought that she was a Seer who had had two lucky dreams).
Some other possible reasons. An attempt to frame an innocent
Garin? Possibly, but only if they drew a blank in their search for possible Gifteds. An attempt to frame
Kath, who voted for her? The same applies, and it would be a pretty transparent move. A double[sic]-bluff by a Wolfish
Garin or a Wolfish
Kath? Again, possibly, but unlikely given the suspicion that they were both under yesterday. It would surely be too risky. An attempt to frame those who suspected her, namely
mormegil,
Glirdan and
Garin? But really, would it be worth their bother if that was their sole reason, when they had better targets to choose.
One further explanation is that she accused, throughout the two preceding Days, only two people -
Wayne and
Garin, and she was one of our quieter villagers, so they may simply have chosen her thinking her death gave us little to go on and, incidentally, might incriminate an innocent or two.
Difficult to say what the reason was, but the attempt to kill a possible Seer looks the most likely to me. Although, at the same time, my suspicions of
Garin did lessen during the course of yesterday, so I am loathe to accuse him on that basis alone.
~*~
Analysis later. Sorry to keep you waiting, but this will take a while.