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Old 01-14-2006, 02:37 AM   #256
Gurthang
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Voting Analysis

Some Random Facts:

Voted for the wolf twice:
Kuru

Voted for the wolf once:
Azaelia, Alcarillo, Farael, Rune, Valier, Gurthang

Voted for a known innocent twice:
Cailín

Voted for a known innocent once:
Farael, Rune, TGWBS, Menel, Valier, Gurthang, Garin, Lhuna

Voted for two unknowns:
Nilp, Amanaduial, malkatoj, Naria

Tie-Creators:
Alcarillo votes Garin to tie him with Menel.
Nilp votes Nilp to tie him with Garin-Menel.
Amana votes Kuru to tie him with Garin-Menel.
Farael votes Eluchil to tie him with Garin-Menel-Kuru.
Rune votes Gil-Galad to tie him with Garin-Menel-Kuru-Eluchil.
Kuru votes Garin to tie him with Eluchil.
Gurthang votes Gil-Galad to tie him with Nilp.

Lhuna votes Eluchil to tie him with Cailín.
Amana votes Lhuna to tie her with Cailín-Eluchil.
Farael votes Garin to tie him with Eluchil-Lhuna.
malkatoj votes Lhuna to tie her with Cailín.
Rune votes Garin to tie him with Cailín-Lhuna.
Naria votes Cailín to tie her with Lhuna.
Azaelia votes Garin to tie her with Lhuna-Cailín.

Tie-Breakers:
Lhuna breaks Nilp from Menel-Garin-Nilp.
TGWBS breaks Gil-Galad from Menel-Garin-Kuru-Eluchil-Gil-Galad.
Valier breaks Eluchil from Menel-Garin-Kuru-Eluchil.
Kuru breaks Garin from Menel-Garin-Kuru.
Garin breaks Gil-Galad from Nilp-Gil-Galad.

Nilp breaks Cailín from Cailín-Eluchil-Lhuna.
malkatoj breaks Lhuna from Eluchil-Lhuna-Garin.
TGWBS breaks Lhuna from Cailín-Lhuna-Garin.
Naria breaks Cailín from Cailín-Garin.
Valier breaks Garin from Lhuna-Cailín-Garin.
Garin breaks Lhuna from Lhuna-Cailín.


Actual Analysis. (aka. trying to make sense out of the above mess.)

So, to make sense, here some more lists.

It seems to me that people who either broke a tie in favor of a wolf or brought someone into a tie with a wolf would be more likely to be wolves. So, with that in mind.

Broke in favor of wolf: Lhuna, TGWBS, Valier, malkatoj, TGWBS, and Naria.
Tied someone with wolf: Nilp(although this was himself, so I don't know if that really counts), Amanaduial, Farael, and Rune.

My thoughts so far are that I see TGWBS name twice. That also makes me see that above he voted for an innocent and an unknown.

So, the opposing list, which I'll have cancel names out.

Broke against wolf: Kuru and Valier.
Tied wolf with someone: Alcarillo, Kuru, Farael, Rune, and Azaelia.

That leaves:
Lhuna
TGWBS
malkatoj
Naria
Nilp
Amanaduial


Now, I know there are innocents in that list, and I know that there are no guaranteed wolves (I'm still planning on voting for Nilpaurion, so he'll stay at 1), but those are just the facts and conclusion I came up with. Now, if I put those into order by taking into account the above random facts and when their tie-creating/breaking occurs, I'd have them like this:

1. Nilpaurion
2.TGWBS
3.Lhuna
4.Naria
5.malkatoj
6.Amanaduial


I also notice that four of the people on the list, everone except TGWBS and Lhuna, have voted for two unknowns. Yet their voting shows that they aided (by chance or intent) the wolves.
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