The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

Nilpaurion Felagund · 01-12-2006, 01:57 AM

OK, let me explain our DAY 1 strategy.

DAY 1 is a practically illogical day, where the only way you could catch a werewolf is if:

a) the werewolf had a slip of tongue.
b) the seer dreamt of a werewolf and decides to tell the village about it; or
c) random chance.

More often than not, c) is operative, and it usually fails (the chance of catching a werewolf is 3:19, in case of this village). The chance of lynching a gifted is much higher, 4:19. Call us cowards for not wanting to risk voting for someone else who is more likely to be gifted than to be a werewolf, but we prefer to err on the safe side.

Also, on DAY 1, with nothing to fall back on but our respective jobs, sometimes slips are made (like what Kath did, intentionally or unintentionally). This, coupled with the voting strategy, is what we are trying to look at now.

Be back in two hours or so with a vote!

Respectfully,
The Home-owners's Association of Nilpaurion's Mind

01-12-2006, 01:57 AM	#26
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	[The Carnivore is unconcious. These are his alter-egos.] OK, let me explain our DAY 1 strategy. DAY 1 is a practically illogical day, where the only way you could catch a werewolf is if: a) the werewolf had a slip of tongue. b) the seer dreamt of a werewolf and decides to tell the village about it; or c) random chance. More often than not, c) is operative, and it usually fails (the chance of catching a werewolf is 3:19, in case of this village). The chance of lynching a gifted is much higher, 4:19. Call us cowards for not wanting to risk voting for someone else who is more likely to be gifted than to be a werewolf, but we prefer to err on the safe side. Also, on DAY 1, with nothing to fall back on but our respective jobs, sometimes slips are made (like what Kath did, intentionally or unintentionally). This, coupled with the voting strategy, is what we are trying to look at now. Be back in two hours or so with a vote! Respectfully, The Home-owners's Association of Nilpaurion's Mind __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...