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I think that this statement is to be connected with the somewhat mysterious "Dor-winion". On Pauline Baynes's map of Middle-earth, Dor-winion (Land of Wine) is placed on the northwestern shore of the Sea of Rhun. This information is generally presumed to have come from Tolkien himself. This origin fits such details of the trade as we know. We know that the wine is brought up the Forest River from Lake Town and that the empty bottles are then sent back down the river. It may be that Lake Town gets their wine from Dor-winion and sends the barrels back down Celduin when they are empty (though I don't know whether that particular means of transportation would be as suitable over such great distances). In any case, if the wine originates in Dor Winion, and Dor Winion is indeed on the northwestern shore of the Sea of Rhun, that would fit the facts in The Hobbit, "south" being understood not to mean "the Distant South" but rather "south of the Wood-elves' realm". I have always imagined that the inhabitants of Dor-winion must be Avari.
To complicate matters, Dor-winion is also mentioned in the Narn i Chin Hurin, where it is said to lie in the "Burning South". This does seem a bit problematic, especially considering that the Narn was written well after The Hobbit - for "The Burning South" does not appear to be a particularly suitable description for the lands surrounding the Sea of Rhun; it rather suggests Harad.
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