Good theories. Looking back, it does seem likely that Sauron had little control over himself.
Sauron should have waited longer before making the One Ring, so that the suspicions of Celebrimbor would have wavered.
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"And forth went Morgoth, and he was halted by the elves. Then went Sauron, who was stopped by a dog and then aged men. Finally, there came the Witch-King, who destroyed Arnor, but nobody seems to remember that."
-A History of Villains
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