[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Aiwendil waits to see what becomes of her(post63) then joins the bandwaggon to be part of bagging a wolf.

As far as I can make out, there was never really a “Spawn bandwagon”. The votes were evenly split amongst a number of candidates for most of the day. Also, Aiwendil did not turn on Spawn at the end of the day when he saw she was likely to be lynched. He had been voicing his suspicion of her throughout. If anyone “turned” on Spawn at the end, it was Boromir88.

Still, yer accusation of Aiwendil, who seems to be tentatively trusted by most, speaks in yer favour, to my mind Mistress Holby. A Wolf is unlikely to go against the flow like that.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

... with so many votes coming up for me, it is quite likely that at least one of the Wolves voted for Spawn, thinking it a safe vote.

A vote for Spawn was never really a “safe” Wolfish vote, given the close nature of the voting. And it seems to me that both Aiwendil and Boromir88 were aware of the likelihood that the other would vote for Spawn when they voted.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

In a few days, if Master Saucepan has not been killed by the wolves, I will examine him more closely. For now, he's on the 'look at later' shelf.

Well that’s just dandy, Gurthang me lad. If I don’t get mauled by Wolves, I get misself lynched for bein’ one! Damned if I do, damned if I don’t. Leastways, you’ve given the Wolves a reason not to kill me for the time being.

Oh, one more thing ‘bout Mistress Wilwa’s vote. Had Jack not died last night, much the same could be said ‘bout ‘is vote for Formendacil as is bein’ said ‘bout ‘ers. An’ ‘e was our Seer.

Like our Crab Farmer, it seems to me to be sensible to eliminate from my current thoughts those who have said or done things that are more likely to suggest their innocence than their guilt. Sommet to do with some Razor used by a bloke called Occam.

On that basis, I am discounting from my current considerations:

Aiwendil
Boromir88
Fordim Hedgethistle
Formendacil
Holbytlass
Wilwarin538

It should be clear from what I’ve said why I regard each of them as more likely to be innocent than guilty, though please note that I am not dismissing any of ‘em entirely. Just discounting ‘em for current purposes.

So, unless things change dramatically, my vote today will most probably come from the remaining group.